Atascosa County TX

[Sol]

Posted this on the other place and was wondering if anyone had answers:

Btw, while we're talking Texas, why does Atascosa County vote the way it does? It's majority Hispanic, and I know that Texas will Texas and those places often have dramatic turnout/citizenship differentials and more conservative people regardless of race. But Atascosa is right by the Rio Grande Valley, where counties like Frio, Zavala, and La Salle have been voting Democratic since forever. Why the difference? Is Atascosa County's Latino population more bougie and assimilated into TX culture? Are Hispanics there overwhelmingly non-voting recent immigrants? Is it just a combination of the two plus hyper-R Anglo exurbanites?

[Tintrlvr]

This is an easy one; the counties are not comparable demographically:

Atascosa: 58% Hispanic
Frio: 72% Hispanic
La Salle: 77% Hispanic
Zavala: 91% Hispanic

Is the question why Atascosa County has fewer Hispanics than the others? It's further from the Rio Grande Valley and has San Antonio exurbs in it.

[RI]

The 2016 electorate in Atascosa County was about 48% Hispanic according to voter list data due to differential turnout and registration rates. In order to get to Trump's margin of victory, you basically need one of the following:

Whites 85% R, Hispanics 55% D
Whites 90% R, Hispanics 60% D
Whites 95% R, Hispanics 65% D
Whites 100% R, Hispanics 70% D

[Tintrlvr]

The 2016 electorate in Atascosa County was about 48% Hispanic according to voter list data due to differential turnout and registration rates. In order to get to Trump's margin of victory, you basically need one of the following:

Whites 85% R, Hispanics 55% D
Whites 90% R, Hispanics 60% D
Whites 95% R, Hispanics 65% D
Whites 100% R, Hispanics 70% D

That percentage Hispanic among actual voters seems very high for a 58% Hispanic overall population rural county. How is it calculated?

[RI]

The 2016 electorate in Atascosa County was about 48% Hispanic according to voter list data due to differential turnout and registration rates. In order to get to Trump's margin of victory, you basically need one of the following:

Whites 85% R, Hispanics 55% D
Whites 90% R, Hispanics 60% D
Whites 95% R, Hispanics 65% D
Whites 100% R, Hispanics 70% D

That percentage Hispanic among actual voters seems very high for a 58% Hispanic overall population rural county. How is it calculated?

Honestly, it seemed a bit high to me as well, but that's what L2 reports. I believe it's based on modeled data and voter surnames.

[jimrtex]

Posted this on the other place and was wondering if anyone had answers:

Btw, while we're talking Texas, why does Atascosa County vote the way it does? It's majority Hispanic, and I know that Texas will Texas and those places often have dramatic turnout/citizenship differentials and more conservative people regardless of race. But Atascosa is right by the Rio Grande Valley, where counties like Frio, Zavala, and La Salle have been voting Democratic since forever. Why the difference? Is Atascosa County's Latino population more bougie and assimilated into TX culture? Are Hispanics there overwhelmingly non-voting recent immigrants? Is it just a combination of the two plus hyper-R Anglo exurbanites?

It's not close to the Rio Grande. Dimmit and Zavala have a lot of field crops that depend on laborers, many who came across the border after the 1910 Revolution.

Atascosa is in easy commuting range of San Antonio, including Kelly and Toyota. The southern portion of the county is in the Eagle Ford (pronounced as one word: eaglefurd). And towns like Jourdanton and Pleasanton are large enough to provide water and sewage for worker housing, that places like Tilden can not.

Two of the four commissioners precincts (and thus half the population) are north of Jourdanton, Pleasanton, Poteet, and Charlotte and thus essentially commuter areas. The precinct boundaries appear to be drawn to include the cities in the southern two precincts.