LA: Mason Dixon/WAFB9 poll: Edwards at 45% in jungle

[Matty]

JBE 45
Rispone 22
Abraham 17

JBE leads by 9 and 15, respectively, in runoff

https://www.wafb.com/2019/10/07/exclusive-gubernatorial-poll-john-bel-edwards-leads-with-days-until-election/

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

JBE 45
Rispone 22
Abraham 17

JBE leads by 9 and 15, respectively, in runoff

https://www.wafb.com/2019/10/07/exclusive-gubernatorial-poll-john-bel-edwards-leads-with-days-until-election/

Finally some good news on this race. It's also great that Dem turnout doesn't plunge during runoffs like in GA or these numbers wouldn't comfort me.

[Skye]

It's kind of important to note JBE is over 50% in both runoff scenarios:

Edwards 51
Rispone 42

Edwards 53
Abraham 38

[Matty]

It's kind of important to note JBE is over 50% in both runoff scenarios:

Edwards 51
Rispone 42

Edwards 53
Abraham 38

I’m not sure how relevant the runoff polls are yet.

[Frenchrepublican]

This poll is better for Edwards than the JMC one, but some numbers are hard to believe.

Trump approval only +6
https://twitter.com/MattCHouston/status/1181260468817743873?s=20

And a D+8 electorate while the early vote was only 43/42 D
https://twitter.com/MattCHouston/status/1181259584226373638?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

It's kind of important to note JBE is over 50% in both runoff scenarios:

Edwards 51
Rispone 42

Edwards 53
Abraham 38

Don’t worry the RGA will do some carpet bombing once the primary is done.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MattCHouston/status/1181257652371951619

https://twitter.com/MattCHouston/status/1181259843925151752

[Skye]

It's kind of important to note JBE is over 50% in both runoff scenarios:

Edwards 51
Rispone 42

Edwards 53
Abraham 38

I’m not sure how relevant the runoff polls are yet.

Well, I guess if you doubt Edwards performance because he's "only" at 45% in the jungle primary, his runoff numbers should at least diminish those doubts.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

lol Abraham really choked away that 2nd place spot didn't he

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Edwards is likely to win anyways, Dems are use to runoffs

[Pericles]

The article says 10% of those polled were undecided, so these polls giving the number Edwards is exactly at shouldn't be taken entirely at face value. 45/90 is 50%, though it is entirely possible Edwards underperforms with undecideds. Still, if he's in the high 40s he could actually be just above 50% once undecideds are factored in.

[Matty]

The article says 10% of those polled were undecided, so these polls giving the number Edwards is exactly at shouldn't be taken entirely at face value. 45/90 is 50%, though it is entirely possible Edwards underperforms with undecideds. Still, if he's in the high 40s he could actually be just above 50% once undecideds are factored in.

Wouldn’t common sense dictate that at this point, most undecided are Rs?

[Frenchrepublican]

The article says 10% of those polled were undecided, so these polls giving the number Edwards is exactly at shouldn't be taken entirely at face value. 45/90 is 50%, though it is entirely possible Edwards underperforms with undecideds. Still, if he's in the high 40s he could actually be just above 50% once undecideds are factored in.

Wouldn’t common sense dictate that at this point, most undecided are Rs?

Yeah, undecided voters don’t look very favourable to Edwards (13% of whites are undecided and only 7% of blacks are)

[Pericles]

The article says 10% of those polled were undecided, so these polls giving the number Edwards is exactly at shouldn't be taken entirely at face value. 45/90 is 50%, though it is entirely possible Edwards underperforms with undecideds. Still, if he's in the high 40s he could actually be just above 50% once undecideds are factored in.

Wouldn’t common sense dictate that at this point, most undecided are Rs?

Perhaps though Edwards probably gets some of them, if he's on 45% as in this poll he may fall short but perhaps if he's on 48% while it looks like there'd be a runoff he'd actually get a majority without one.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's kind of important to note JBE is over 50% in both runoff scenarios:

Edwards 51
Rispone 42

Edwards 53
Abraham 38

What we could be seeing is infighting causing some Abraham/Rispone voters to go to JBE in the runoff. This happened in 2015 but to a much greater extent. In this poll it's +4 R before and +9/+15 D after.

This poll is better for Edwards than the JMC one, but some numbers are hard to believe.

Trump approval only +6
https://twitter.com/MattCHouston/status/1181260468817743873?s=20

And a D+8 electorate while the early vote was only 43/42 D
https://twitter.com/MattCHouston/status/1181259584226373638?s=20

The racial numbers and the party registration numbers make sense, but Trump's approval doesn't. It makes me think it's skewed towards white liberals instead of the DINOs that will come out for JBE but vote for Trump in 2020.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

nice, nice

[Pericles]

Atlas: LA is Safe R!!!

[Frenchrepublican]

Atlas: LA is Safe R!!!

I don’t want to dash your hopes of a JBE victory but this poll had Trump barely above water (in LA !!) and gave to Abraham/Rispone a 39 % combined share of the vote. While they won 51% in the end

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Atlas: LA is Safe R!!!

All these polls way underestimated the Republican combined vote

[ElectionsGuy]

Atlas: LA is Safe R!!!

This poll had JBE beating Rispone + Abraham by 6. He lost to them by 4, so if we do some "unskewing" we get a 1 point Rispone win in the runoff.

[UncleSam]

Unskewing based on turnout that hasn’t happened yet is a bit silly. Rs were very motivated to turn out in the primary because of the impeachment inquiry combined with the fact that they had the only competitive race involved. I do think it is likely that the vast majority of undecided voters in every poll from here on out will go R though - I view a 51-42 JBE poll as more of a 52-48 poll once the undecided voters actually pick someone, tbh. Unless Abraham endorses JBE, though even then probably only 53-47. Either way, it’ll come down to turnout.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's kind of important to note JBE is over 50% in both runoff scenarios:

Edwards 51
Rispone 42

Edwards 53
Abraham 38

What we could be seeing is infighting causing some Abraham/Rispone voters to go to JBE in the runoff. This happened in 2015 but to a much greater extent. In this poll it's +4 R before and +9/+15 D after.

This post is actually completely wrong. It was +6 D before not +4 R.

Unskewing based on turnout that hasn’t happened yet is a bit silly. Rs were very motivated to turn out in the primary because of the impeachment inquiry combined with the fact that they had the only competitive race involved. I do think it is likely that the vast majority of undecided voters in every poll from here on out will go R though - I view a 51-42 JBE poll as more of a 52-48 poll once the undecided voters actually pick someone, tbh. Unless Abraham endorses JBE, though even then probably only 53-47. Either way, it’ll come down to turnout.

I know, I'm simply demonstrating that this poll can't be trusted to wish away Rispone's chances of winning.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Louisiana Governor by Mason-Dixon on 2019-10-04

Summary: D: 51%, R: 42%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details