2019 Canadian Federal Election Prediction thread

[Pragmatic Conservative]

PV % and Seats
Liberals
Conservatives
NDP
Bloc
Green
People’s Party
Independent and Other

Individual Riding Predictions:

Atlantic Canada:
St. John's East
Egmont
Central Nova
Cumberland—Colchester
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook
Acadie—Bathurst
Fredericton
Saint John—Rothesay

Quebec:
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Jonquière
Lac-Saint-Jean
Louis-Hébert
Québec
Berthier—Maskinongé
Beauce
Mégantic—L'Érable
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
Hochelaga
Laurier—Sainte-Marie
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
Abitibi—Témiscamingue
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

Ontario:
Kanata—Carleton
Nepean
Ottawa Centre
Bay of Quinte
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Northumberland—Peterborough South
Peterborough—Kawartha
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
King—Vaughan
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Whitby
York Centre
Scarborough—Agincourt
Beaches—East York
Davenport
Parkdale—High Park
Toronto—Danforth
Brampton East
Oakville
Burlington
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Niagara Falls
Cambridge
Kitchener—Conestoga
Windsor West
Kenora
Sudbury
Sault Ste. Marie

Manitoba
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital
Elmwood—Transcona
Winnipeg South
Winnipeg Centre
Kildonan—St. Paul

Saskatchewan
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
Saskatoon West

Alberta
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Mill Woods
Edmonton Strathcona
Calgary Centre
Calgary Skyview

BC
Kelowna—Lake Country
South Okanagan—West Kootenay
Cloverdale—Langley City
Fleetwood—Port Kells
South Surrey—White Rock
Delta
Steveston—Richmond East
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
Surrey Centre
Burnaby North—Seymour
Vancouver Granville
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam
Courtenay—Alberni
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

[Pragmatic Conservative]

First version may make changes!

PV % and Seats
Liberals 35% 146 seats
Conservatives 32% 115 seats
NDP 16% 33 seats
Bloc 7% 41 seats
Green 6% 3 seats
People’s Party 2% 0 seats
Independent and Other 2% 0 seats


Individual Riding Predictions:

Atlantic Canada:
St. John's East-NDP
Egmont-Liberal
Central Nova-Liberal
Cumberland—Colchester-Liberal
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook-Liberal
Acadie—Bathurst-Liberal
Fredericton-Liberal
Saint John—Rothesay-Conservative

Quebec:
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques-Bloc
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine-Bloc
Jonquière-Bloc
Lac-Saint-Jean-Bloc
Louis-Hébert-Liberal
Québec-Bloc
Berthier—Maskinongé-NDP
Beauce-Conservative  
Mégantic—L'Érable-Conservative
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot-Bloc
Hochelaga-Bloc
Laurier—Sainte-Marie-Bloc
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie-NDP
Abitibi—Témiscamingue-Liberal
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou-Liberal

Ontario:
Kanata—Carleton-Liberal
Nepean-Liberal
Ottawa Centre-Liberal
Bay of Quinte-Liberal
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte-Conservative
Northumberland—Peterborough South-Liberal
Peterborough—Kawartha-Liberal
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill-Conservative
King—Vaughan-Liberal
Vaughan—Woodbridge-Liberal
Whitby-Conservative
York Centre-Liberal
Scarborough—Agincourt-Liberal
Beaches—East York-Liberal
Davenport-Liberal
Parkdale—High Park-NDP
Toronto—Danforth-NDP
Brampton East-Liberal
Oakville-Liberal
Burlington-Liberal
Flamborough—Glanbrook-Conservative
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek-Liberal
Niagara Falls-Conservative
Cambridge-Liberal
Kitchener—Conestoga-Conservative
Windsor West-NDP
Kenora-NDP
Sudbury-Liberal
Sault Ste. Marie-Liberal

Manitoba
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley-Conservative
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital-Liberal
Elmwood—Transcona-NDP
Winnipeg South-Liberal
Winnipeg Centre-NDP
Kildonan—St. Paul-Conservative

Saskatchewan
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River-NDP
Saskatoon West-Conservative

Alberta
Edmonton Centre-Liberal   
Edmonton Mill Woods-Liberal   
Edmonton Strathcona-NDP
Calgary Centre-Conservative
Calgary Skyview-Conservative

BC
Kelowna—Lake Country-Liberal
South Okanagan—West Kootenay-NDP
Cloverdale—Langley City-Liberal
Fleetwood—Port Kells-Liberal
South Surrey—White Rock-Liberal
Delta-Liberal
Steveston—Richmond East-Liberal
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge-Conservative
Surrey Centre-Liberal
Burnaby North—Seymour-NDP
Vancouver Granville-Liberal
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam-Conservative
Courtenay—Alberni-NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford-NDP
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke-NDP

[adma]

When it comes to Toronto, I actually think Davenport's more likely to go NDP than PHP or Toronto-Danforth.

[lilTommy]

When it comes to Toronto, I actually think Davenport's more likely to go NDP than PHP or Toronto-Danforth.

Interesting, why is that? Candidate?

I only ask because all three have a) strong candidates, b) historically strong NDP bases. In ON2018, TD had the highest NDP vote at 64%, then Davenport at 60% then PHP at 59%.
I don't think your wrong. These are my top seats in TO to go NDP, in this Order I think TD-Davenport-PHP.

[jaichind]

First version may make changes!

PV % and Seats
Liberals 35% 146 seats
Conservatives 32% 115 seats
NDP 16% 33 seats
Bloc 7% 41 seats
Green 6% 3 seats
People’s Party 2% 0 seats
Independent and Other 2% 0 seats

Wow ... 41 seats for BQ.  So you are expecting a last min LIB collapse in Quebec ?

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah, I think you're way overshooting the minors. For reference here is 338's seat by seat map. Right now they have 150 Lib, 135 Con, 28 Bloc, 20 NDP, 4 Green, 1 PPC, and that's with no tossups. I suspect the Bloc is also being overpolled at the moment, just because Seperatism is a always-losing, dead issue, and once the Big two start banging that drum things are going to shift.

[JerryArkansas]

Yeah, I think you're way overshooting the minors. For reference here is 338's seat by seat map. Right now they have 150 Lib, 135 Con, 28 Bloc, 20 NDP, 4 Green, 1 PPC, and that's with no tossups. I suspect the Bloc is also being overpolled at the moment, just because Seperatism is a always-losing, dead issue, and once the Big two start banging that drum things are going to shift.

Personally I think 338 is overestimating the greens a bit in the west, and underselling the NDP by at least 5 seats.

[adma]

When it comes to Toronto, I actually think Davenport's more likely to go NDP than PHP or Toronto-Danforth.

Interesting, why is that? Candidate?

I only ask because all three have a) strong candidates, b) historically strong NDP bases. In ON2018, TD had the highest NDP vote at 64%, then Davenport at 60% then PHP at 59%.
I don't think your wrong. These are my top seats in TO to go NDP, in this Order I think TD-Davenport-PHP.

Yes, candidate; because it's former MP Andrew Cash in the running, and Julie Dzerowicz is probably the weakest of the three Liberal incumbents.

Plus, it was by far the strongest riding/ward for the non-John Tory left in last year's mayoral election.

Some of it *might* be camoflauged by how the seat had a solidly Liberal federal history pre-2011 (thanks to Charles Caccia and pre-gentrification ethno-demographics).  And conversely, Toronto-Danforth might actually be *overrated* (relatively speaking) for the NDP--a lot's been skewed there in recent years by the Layton/Tabuns factor; but mayorally, it's been much more John Tory-favourable...

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Davenport is probably the most left wing riding in Toronto, and with Cash on the ballot, probably the NDP's best chance at winning a seat there. Still an uphill battle.

[Thomas D]

Libs-145
Cons-141
Bloc-27
NDP-23
Green-2

[DC Al Fine]

Rough guess right now:

Tory: 140
Lib: 139
Ndp: 28
Bloc: 25
Green: 5
JWR: 1

[jaichind]

LPC    137
CPC   132
NDP    30
BQ      33
GPC      4
PPC       1
JWR      1     

[libertpaulian]

Rough guess right now:

Tory: 140
Lib: 139
Ndp: 28
Bloc: 25
Green: 5
JWR: 1

LPC    137
CPC   132
NDP    30
BQ      33
GPC      4
PPC       1
JWR      1     

I'm not an expert on your government, but if such a thing were to occur, would that be a Tory minority government or a hung Parliament?

[DC Al Fine]

Rough guess right now:

Tory: 140
Lib: 139
Ndp: 28
Bloc: 25
Green: 5
JWR: 1

LPC    137
CPC   132
NDP    30
BQ      33
GPC      4
PPC       1
JWR      1     

I'm not an expert on your government, but if such a thing were to occur, would that be a Tory minority government or a hung Parliament?

Those aren't mutually exclusive. All minority governments are hung parliaments.

The rough consensus assuming a hung parliament is:

If Lib>Tory: PM Trudeau
If Lib<Tory & Lib+NDP+Green>Tory+Bloc+PPC: PM Trudeau
If Lib<Tory & Lib+NDP+Green<Tory+Bloc+PPC: PM Scheer

Now where it gets messy is scenarios like what Jachind and I predicted where Lib+NDP+Green have a very narrow majority. If one group can only maintain a majority of a few seats it's hard to govern. You have to elect a mostly non-voting Speaker and the majority can be imperiled by deaths, retirements, or even just MP's getting sick, Cabinet ministers being out of the country etc. It's harder to tell what will happen there.

[Lord Halifax]

The rough consensus assuming a hung parliament is:

If Lib<Tory & Lib+NDP+Green<Tory+Bloc+PPC: PM Scheer

Why would BQ prefer Scheer to Trudeau?

[jaichind]

The rough consensus assuming a hung parliament is:

If Lib<Tory & Lib+NDP+Green<Tory+Bloc+PPC: PM Scheer

Why would BQ prefer Scheer to Trudeau?

Yeah.  I am skeptical that BQ would back a CPC government.  I suspect they will abstain and a LPC government can continue as long as LPC+NDP > CPC+PPC

[DC Al Fine]

The rough consensus assuming a hung parliament is:

If Lib<Tory & Lib+NDP+Green<Tory+Bloc+PPC: PM Scheer

Why would BQ prefer Scheer to Trudeau?

Yeah.  I am skeptical that BQ would back a CPC government.  I suspect they will abstain and a LPC government can continue as long as LPC+NDP > CPC+PPC

It's not a question of "preferring" the Tories. The Bloc has stated they will work with whoever will give them the best deal. What I am suggesting is that given the parties' respective ideologies and histories on federalism, the Tories will likely be able to 'outbid' the Liberals on a case by case basis for a while before we get new elections.

A newly reinvigorated Bloc in a hung parliament will want to throw their weight around. I'm skeptical they'll abstain for Trudeau's sake.

[LabourJersey]

Tories 142 seats
Liberals 136 seats
BQ 31 seats
NDP 24 seats
Greens 3 seats
People's 1 seat
JWR 1 seat

[mileslunn]

After seeing Mainstreet polls, I am going to go bold and predict this won't even be that close.  I think a lot dislike all options, but fear of a Conservative government outweighs desire to defeat Liberals.  I see this as a repeat of 2014 in Ontario and 2004 federally.

Liberal 173 seats
Conservative 100 seats
BQ 33 seats
NDP 30 seats
Green 2 seats

[Walmart_shopper]

I also think the Liberals are being significantly underestimated. My prediction:

Liberal 170 seats
Conservative 113 seats
BQ 32 seats
NDP 21 seats
Green 2 seats

[DabbingSanta]

October 18th update

Popular vote:
Conservative 35%
Liberal 32%
NDP 17%
Bloc 7%
Green 6%
PPC 3%

Seats:
Conservative 140   (+45)
Liberal 134   (-43)
NDP 32   (-7)
Bloc 27   (+17)
Green 3   (+1)
PPC 1   (---)
Ind 1   (-7)

[DC Al Fine]

Updating my prediction a little bit for the Bloc surge

Liberal 135 seats
Conservative 135 seats
BQ 35 seats
NDP 30 seats
Green 2 seats
JWR: 1
Bernier: 0

I think there will be a small "shy big parties" factor on election day, mostly at the expense of the Greens and PPC.

[T'Chenka]

Updating my prediction a little bit for the Bloc surge

Liberal 135 seats
Conservative 135 seats
BQ 35 seats
NDP 30 seats
Green 2 seats
JWR: 1
Bernier: 0

I think there will be a small "shy big parties" factor on election day, mostly at the expense of the Greens and PPC.

This is a fascinating scenario where the Bloc Quebecois get to decide the next government and also get a strong loud voice on policy, regardless of who they align themselves with. Scheer would have to give up on an eastern pipeline to have any chance of governing, just as a starting point.

Semi-off-topic, I know

[DC Al Fine]

In addition to my serious prediction, here's one just for fun: Libs + NDP + Greens fall two seats short of a majority and are forced to rely on independent MP's Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott to govern.

[jaichind]

In addition to my serious prediction, here's one just for fun: Libs + NDP + Greens fall two seats short of a majority and are forced to rely on independent MP's Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott to govern.

That would be hilarious if JWR ends up holding the balance of power.  I doubt it.  BTW, I was always confused on why the Greens did not work to actively to form an alliance with JWR to have JWR endorse the Greens in BC across the board in return for Greens backing of JWR in her district.