2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Landslide Lyndon]

She won by almost 14% in a DEM wave year. This is a Trump +14 district. She will not lose.

That doesn't change the fact that she initially tried to sell herself as a Moderate Hero and now suddenly became a bona fide MAGA troll.

[Holmes]

She probably won't lose but upstate New York can be weird at times.

[eb782]

Tedra Cobb will definitely do better than she did in 2018, given that she gets the nomination.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't go on Twitter much but what is with this trend of Trumpists using checks and x's to get their points across? It looks childish.

[lfromnj]

#Resistance cash has flowed in.
https://twitter.com/TedraCobb/status/1195828276192796673?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

Its not unwinnable like Ky senate but more like CA 22

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Stefanik really fell off the deep end...

https://twitter.com/elisestefanik/status/1195507322317086725?s=21

Her challenger raised $400K since the stunt

https://twitter.com/tedracobb/status/1195789626700632065?s=21

I don’t think she’ll lose BUT the district is only R+4 so 🤷🏻‍♂️

This probably helps her more then hurts. Ignore the Obama numbers, this is the Republican counterpart to AZ-9/VA-10 etc etc. She's not losing.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Nick Freitas is a pretty weak candidate though, so I can understand the rating change if that is who the Republicans are settling on, but I also think it's silly to have VA-2 as a tossup right now.

Out of curiosity, why is Freitas a weak candidate?

He was a really strong candidate until 2019. This year, he tried to have a family member primary a moderate GOPer in the state senate, which failed. He in general threw himself behind the slew of more conservative primaries, only one of which succeeded and ended up giving the democrat the seat. He than went around to all the out of state donors brandishing his credentials but in the process forgot to submit the paperwork to properly run for reelection. His seat ironically became a battleground. After losing a lawsuit to try and get on the ballot, he had to call in tons of donor favors to run a serious write-in campaign. Freitas ended up winning that write-in campaign, but only after groups like the NRA had to bail him out with millions in ads on how to write Freitas. His star has certainly diminished over the past eleven months.

Finally, there is the fact Freitas Repp's the rural north of the seat and not the suburbs where the votes are, but that is not his fault.

Thanks for this btw. Great summary.

[Gracile]

She won by almost 14% in a DEM wave year. This is a Trump +14 district. She will not lose.

That doesn't change the fact that she initially tried to sell herself as a Moderate Hero and now suddenly became a bona fide MAGA troll.

Dropping the Moderate Hero act isn't going to stop Trumpists (a majority of her district's electorate based on 2016 vote share) from electing her.

----

It is a bit funny though that Stefanik's whole shtick was about making a concerted effort to bring women/diversity into the GOP caucus and overnight she's become a hero to the MAGA crowd.

[Calthrina950]

She won by almost 14% in a DEM wave year. This is a Trump +14 district. She will not lose.

That doesn't change the fact that she initially tried to sell herself as a Moderate Hero and now suddenly became a bona fide MAGA troll.

Dropping the Moderate Hero act isn't going to stop Trumpists (a majority of her district's electorate based on 2016 vote share) from electing her.

----

It is a bit funny though that Stefanik's whole shtick was about making a concerted effort to bring women/diversity into the GOP caucus and overnight she's become a hero to the MAGA crowd.

The Trumpists are now praising Stefanik, because of how she has turned herself into a full-throated defender of Trump at these hearings. She and Zeldin both have become High Priests of the Church of Trump. Now I can understand why many Democrats do not trust even moderate Republicans. We also saw this with Susan Collins and her defense of Kavanaugh last year.

[Xing]

While those of us who dislike Trump are going to find Stefanik’s transformation into a hardcore Trumpist cringeworthy and shallow, it’s (unfortunately) not a bad electoral strategy in a district that is trending Republican and went pretty strongly Republican in 2016. Republicans seem to understand better than Democrats how important base turnout is these days, and that merely being “moderate” doesn’t woo hoards of swing voters.

[wbrocks67]

Can anyone tell me if there's a source to find who are the challengers in each district so far? I'm trying to find out who are the current R challengers for PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08, if any

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Can anyone tell me if there's a source to find who are the challengers in each district so far? I'm trying to find out who are the current R challengers for PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08, if any

Ballotpedia has everything you need.

[Brittain33]

The Kavanaugh discussion is off-topic for this thread.

[wbrocks67]

Cobb raised $1 million+

https://twitter.com/TedraCobb/status/1196238026864812035

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Cobb raised $1 million+

https://twitter.com/TedraCobb/status/1196238026864812035

McGrath is raising how much again?

[Gustaf]

While those of us who dislike Trump are going to find Stefanik’s transformation into a hardcore Trumpist cringeworthy and shallow, it’s (unfortunately) not a bad electoral strategy in a district that is trending Republican and went pretty strongly Republican in 2016. Republicans seem to understand better than Democrats how important base turnout is these days, and that merely being “moderate” doesn’t woo hoards of swing voters.

I feel a distinction here is that while the Republican coalition is overwhelmingly conservative the Democratic one is a mix of liberals and moderates.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

It's official: Steve Knight is running again in CA-25:
https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1196576402708918272?s=20

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It's official: Steve Knight is running again in CA-25:
https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1196576402708918272?s=20

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Badger]

She won by almost 14% in a DEM wave year. This is a Trump +14 district. She will not lose.

That doesn't change the fact that she initially tried to sell herself as a Moderate Hero and now suddenly became a bona fide MAGA troll.

Dropping the Moderate Hero act isn't going to stop Trumpists (a majority of her district's electorate based on 2016 vote share) from electing her.

----

It is a bit funny though that Stefanik's whole shtick was about making a concerted effort to bring women/diversity into the GOP caucus and overnight she's become a hero to the MAGA crowd.

This place is historically Democratic and had a ton of Obama Trump voters. I wouldn't put odds on her losing, but it is definitely within the realm of reasonable possibility

[Pollster]

Josh Hicks announces run against Andy Barr in KY-06. He wasn't their first choice, but has the support of the DCCC.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Josh Hicks announces run against Andy Barr in KY-06. He wasn't their first choice, but has the support of the DCCC.

Safe R, yawn

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Btw, Dems now lead Republicans by just +6 in the generic ballot. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Still enough to hold the House, but doing 3 points better then 2018 would certainly be enough to ensure a net gain for the GOP, regardless of how NC/TX-23/24 turns out (22 and 21 are honestly overrated, even Beto couldn't win them).

[Gracile]

She won by almost 14% in a DEM wave year. This is a Trump +14 district. She will not lose.

That doesn't change the fact that she initially tried to sell herself as a Moderate Hero and now suddenly became a bona fide MAGA troll.

Dropping the Moderate Hero act isn't going to stop Trumpists (a majority of her district's electorate based on 2016 vote share) from electing her.

----

It is a bit funny though that Stefanik's whole shtick was about making a concerted effort to bring women/diversity into the GOP caucus and overnight she's become a hero to the MAGA crowd.

This place is historically Democratic and had a ton of Obama Trump voters. I wouldn't put odds on her losing, but it is definitely within the realm of reasonable possibility

NY-21 (or rather its equivalent region) is actually ancestrally Republican. Obama won the current district both times, but so did George W. Bush - who won the area under its 2003-2013 lines in 2000 and 2004 in its previous iteration, NY-23. Republican congressmen have also represented the North Country throughout much of the 20th century, in addition to voting for Republican presidential candidates. I think a big part of Obama's win here was due to the economy at the time. Barring another major financial crisis, I have a difficult time seeing the voters who swung decisively to Trump swinging back to Democrats at Obama levels.

[wbrocks67]

Btw, Dems now lead Republicans by just +6 in the generic ballot. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Still enough to hold the House, but doing 3 points better then 2018 would certainly be enough to ensure a net gain for the GOP, regardless of how NC/TX-23/24 turns out (22 and 21 are honestly overrated, even Beto couldn't win them).

First of all, what is "Just +6"? Being 6 pts ahead doesn't justify a "just" infront of it. Not to mention there's a ton of undecideds still, and for most of the 2018 cycle, Dems were up by about 5-7 on average so this is... right inline with early 2018 polls.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Btw, Dems now lead Republicans by just +6 in the generic ballot. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Still enough to hold the House, but doing 3 points better then 2018 would certainly be enough to ensure a net gain for the GOP, regardless of how NC/TX-23/24 turns out (22 and 21 are honestly overrated, even Beto couldn't win them).

First of all, what is "Just +6"? Being 6 pts ahead doesn't justify a "just" infront of it. Not to mention there's a ton of undecideds still, and for most of the 2018 cycle, Dems were up by about 5-7 on average so this is... right inline with early 2018 polls.

You're right, that was a kind of a hackish thing to say in hindsight. My apologies.