2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Pollster]

Democratic Topkea Mayor Michelle De La Isla considering run for KS-02

Not the strongest possible recruit for this seat, but a good one. Against Watkins this seat could be competitive if Dems build out another strong operation in Kansas.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Politico's House and Senate rating maps are atrocious.

Some of the worst House offenders:
-AZ-09 being Likely D
-CA-03, CA-09, CA-16, and CA-31 being Likely D
-CT-02 being Likely D
-CT-05 being Lean D
-FL-06 and FL-25 being Likely R
-FL-19 being Likely D
-IL-03 being Likely D
-IL-16 being Likely R
-MA-09 being Likely D
-NH-02 being Lean D
-NJ-04 being Likely R
-NJ-5 and NJ-11 being Lean D
-NY-03 being Likely D
-PA-06 being Likely D
-PA-17 being Lean D
-TX-07 being a tossup
-TX-03, TX-17 being Likely R
-VA-01 being Likely R
-WV-02 and WV-03 being Likely R

Some of the worst Senate offenders:
-CO-SEN being a tossup
-DE-SEN being Likely D
-OR-SEN being Likely D
-TN-SEN being Likely R

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/house/

[Epaminondas]

Btw, Dems now lead Republicans by just +6 in the generic ballot. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Still enough to hold the House, but doing 3 points better then 2018 would certainly be enough to ensure a net gain for the GOP, regardless of how NC/TX-23/24 turns out (22 and 21 are honestly overrated, even Beto couldn't win them).

First of all, what is "Just +6"? Being 6 pts ahead doesn't justify a "just" infront of it. Not to mention there's a ton of undecideds still, and for most of the 2018 cycle, Dems were up by about 5-7 on average so this is... right inline with early 2018 polls.

You're right, that was a kind of a hackish thing to say in hindsight. My apologies.

All the more so as Dems won the House vote by +6 or +7 rather than +9 after accounting for the many uncontested seats of 2018.

See https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=332692.msg6959597#msg6959597

[Gracile]

Inside Elections made 13 House rating changes (12 in favor of Democrats, 1 in favor of Republicans):

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-november-26-2019

AZ-06 (Schweikert): Safe R -> Likely R
CA-25 (VACANT): Likely D -> Solid D
IL-06 (Casten): Lean D -> Likely D
IL-13 (Davis): Tilt R -> Tossup
IA-02 (Loebsack, OPEN): Tossup -> Tilt D
IA-04 (King): Lean R -> Tilt R
MI-08 (Slotkin): Tilt D -> Lean D
MI-11 (Stevens): Lean D -> Likely D
MN-01 (Hagedorn): Lean R -> Tilt R
MN-02 (Craig): Lean D -> Likely D
MN-07 (Peterson): Lean D -> Tilt D
NH-01 (Pappas): Lean D -> Likely D
VA-02 (Luria): Tilt D -> Lean D

[Oryxslayer]

Inside Elections made 13 House rating changes (12 in favor of Democrats, 1 in favor of Republicans):

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-november-26-2019

AZ-06 (Schweikert): Safe R -> Likely R
CA-25 (VACANT): Likely D -> Solid D
IL-06 (Casten): Lean D -> Likely D
IL-13 (Davis): Tilt R -> Tossup
IA-02 (Loebsack, OPEN): Tossup -> Tilt D
IA-04 (King): Lean R -> Tilt R
MI-08 (Slotkin): Tilt D -> Lean D
MI-11 (Stevens): Lean D -> Likely D
MN-01 (Hagedorn): Lean R -> Tilt R
MN-02 (Craig): Lean D -> Likely D
MN-07 (Peterson): Lean D -> Tilt D
NH-01 (Pappas): Lean D -> Likely D
VA-02 (Luria): Tilt D -> Lean D

I wonder whats the explanation for CA25? Guess it must be the primary date, Dems more or less unification around a candidate, and the sh**tty shape of the GOP field.

[Nyvin]

Really seems like election prognosticators hand out the "Likely D/R" rating very generously,  while going from Tilt/Lean D/R to tossup is quite restricted.

[Gracile]

Really seems like election prognosticators hand out the "Likely D/R" rating very generously,  while going from Tilt/Lean D/R to tossup is quite restricted.

Sometimes it feels like the Likely rating is just a way to signify races that are essentially safe, but the major prognosticators can't completely close the door on them because they could feasibly be vulnerable under the right circumstances (unfavorable environment, scandal, etc.). Really though, I would say about half of the seats generally considered as part of the Likely column should be rated Safe/Solid instead.

[Bidenworth2020]

Inside Elections made 13 House rating changes (12 in favor of Democrats, 1 in favor of Republicans):

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-november-26-2019

AZ-06 (Schweikert): Safe R -> Likely R
CA-25 (VACANT): Likely D -> Solid D
IL-06 (Casten): Lean D -> Likely D
IL-13 (Davis): Tilt R -> Tossup
IA-02 (Loebsack, OPEN): Tossup -> Tilt D
IA-04 (King): Lean R -> Tilt R
MI-08 (Slotkin): Tilt D -> Lean D
MI-11 (Stevens): Lean D -> Likely D
MN-01 (Hagedorn): Lean R -> Tilt R
MN-02 (Craig): Lean D -> Likely D
MN-07 (Peterson): Lean D -> Tilt D
NH-01 (Pappas): Lean D -> Likely D
VA-02 (Luria): Tilt D -> Lean D

I wonder whats the explanation for CA25? Guess it must be the primary date, Dems more or less unification around a candidate, and the sh**tty shape of the GOP field.

Not that Cenk is going to come close to winning, but I do think that he might be able to pull away enough from Smith so as to pull her below 50. All it would take is 5-10% of the vote.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Posted this in another thread about Freitas but worth noting here that Nick Freitas is running to challenge Spanberger in VA-07.

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1201346191415480320

[Gracile]

Freitas may pose a mild threat to Spanberger in some of the more rural parts of VA-07 but seems like a poor fit for the kind of voters in Henrico and Chesterfield that have veered far from the GOP.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Maybe Virginia Democrats can do some emergency redistricting and nip that in the bud

[Oryxslayer]

Now that the NC map appears somewhat final, Dems have begun to scope out the new safe seats. Deborah Ross, former Wake state legislator and 2016 Senate candidate has entered NC02. Kathy Manning who ran a competitive campaign for NC13 in 2018 has filed for the new NC06.

[Storr]

Now that the NC map appears somewhat final, Dems have begun to scope out the new safe seats. Deborah Ross, former Wake state legislator and 2016 Senate candidate has entered NC02. Kathy Manning who ran a competitive campaign for NC13 in 2018 has filed for the new NC06.

Hopefully a solid Democratic candidate emerges for NC-8, as it's the most competitive (53.2% Trump, 44.1% Clinton in 2016) of the 8 Republican seats in the new map.

[Nyvin]

Now that the NC map appears somewhat final, Dems have begun to scope out the new safe seats. Deborah Ross, former Wake state legislator and 2016 Senate candidate has entered NC02. Kathy Manning who ran a competitive campaign for NC13 in 2018 has filed for the new NC06.

Hopefully a solid Democratic candidate emerges for NC-8, as it's the most competitive (53.2% Trump, 44.1% Clinton in 2016) of the 8 Republican seats in the new map.

It's still safe R. Meadows won't lose - pretty much the only non "Trump forever" voters in the district are in Asheville.

NC-8 is Carbarus to Cumberland

[Gracile]

The new NC-08 is the only new seat on the fringes of competitiveness, but it would still likely take a reasonably good year for Democrats to actually flip.

[Virginiá]

Two seats is a fairly good deal, but whoever at the NDRC and in the Democratic Party in general was responsible for pushing/supporting gerrymandering lawsuits should be forced out over the bungled decision to wait so long to file a lawsuit here that they almost didn't even have enough time to get any redraw, let alone a 3rd possible seat if they had just sued months ago and allowed the court long enough to go through the process (which includes time spent waiting for the legislature to try and draw a fresh gerrymander). Instead, they filed the lawsuit so late that we have to choke down whatever the GOP decided to draw, of which was predictably bad.

[Tintrlvr]

Now that the NC map appears somewhat final, Dems have begun to scope out the new safe seats. Deborah Ross, former Wake state legislator and 2016 Senate candidate has entered NC02. Kathy Manning who ran a competitive campaign for NC13 in 2018 has filed for the new NC06.

Hopefully a solid Democratic candidate emerges for NC-8, as it's the most competitive (53.2% Trump, 44.1% Clinton in 2016) of the 8 Republican seats in the new map.

It's still safe R. Meadows won't lose - pretty much the only non "Trump forever" voters in the district are in Asheville.

NC-8 is Carbarus to Cumberland

Yeah, it's potentially interesting. I wouldn't want to be a Republican from Cabarrus trying to convince voters in Fayetteville to support me.

[lfromnj]

The new NC-08 is the only new seat on the fringes of competitiveness, but it would still likely take a reasonably good year for Democrats to actually flip.

NC 1 wont be competitive 2020 but if it continues in 2022 it could be competitive  in a low turnout D midterm.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Roll Call House rating changes:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/house-rating-changes-a-dozen-races-shift-toward-democrats

Toward R:

MN-7: Lean D to Tilt D

Toward D:

AZ-6: Solid R to Likely R
CA-25: Likely D to Solid D
IL-6: Lean D to Likely D
IL-13: Tilt R to Tossup
IA-2: Tossup to Tilt D
IA-4: Lean R to Tilt R
MI-8: Tilt D to Lean D
MI-11: Lean D to Likely D
MN-1: Lean R to Tilt R
MN-2: Lean D to Likely D
NH-1: Lean D to Likely D
VA-2: Tilt D to Lean D

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Roll Call House rating changes:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/house-rating-changes-a-dozen-races-shift-toward-democrats

Toward R:

MN-7: Lean D to Tilt D

Toward D:

AZ-6: Solid R to Likely R
CA-25: Likely D to Solid D
IL-6: Lean D to Likely D
IL-13: Tilt R to Tossup
IA-2: Tossup to Tilt D
IA-4: Lean R to Tilt R
MI-8: Tilt D to Lean D
MI-11: Lean D to Likely D
MN-1: Lean R to Tilt R
MN-2: Lean D to Likely D
NH-1: Lean D to Likely D
VA-2: Tilt D to Lean D

Agreed on MN-7, AZ-6, CA-25, IL-06, but completely disagreed on IL-13. It was Trump +6 in 2016, and Davis held on even in 2018: should be lean R still imo. IA-4 is basically the same logic, even if King survives the primary it'll still probably be an R hold. MN-1 also shouldn't be moved: other than that, all agreed.

[NOVA Green]

Roll Call House rating changes:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/house-rating-changes-a-dozen-races-shift-toward-democrats

Toward R:

MN-7: Lean D to Tilt D

Toward D:

AZ-6: Solid R to Likely R
CA-25: Likely D to Solid D
IL-6: Lean D to Likely D
IL-13: Tilt R to Tossup
IA-2: Tossup to Tilt D
IA-4: Lean R to Tilt R
MI-8: Tilt D to Lean D
MI-11: Lean D to Likely D
MN-1: Lean R to Tilt R
MN-2: Lean D to Likely D
NH-1: Lean D to Likely D
VA-2: Tilt D to Lean D

Ouch.... doesn't look like 'Pubs are doing so well among folks of my Dad's generation, especially among non WASP Ancestral European Immigrant populations....

Will White Catholics be the swing the vote in 2020, especially within the Upper Midwest

[Gracile]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1202298493408292864

[wesmoorenerd]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1202298493408292864

Sooooo he's keeping the new 8th off the board and the new 13th on the board? Either he forgot to mention that change or he's completely overlooked that.

[ElectionsGuy]

Roll Call House rating changes:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/house-rating-changes-a-dozen-races-shift-toward-democrats

Toward R:

MN-7: Lean D to Tilt D

Toward D:

AZ-6: Solid R to Likely R
CA-25: Likely D to Solid D
IL-6: Lean D to Likely D
IL-13: Tilt R to Tossup
IA-2: Tossup to Tilt D
IA-4: Lean R to Tilt R
MI-8: Tilt D to Lean D
MI-11: Lean D to Likely D
MN-1: Lean R to Tilt R
MN-2: Lean D to Likely D
NH-1: Lean D to Likely D
VA-2: Tilt D to Lean D

Majority of the rating changes I see no reason for, especially the ones in Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. They're lagging behind on districts like AZ-06 and IL-06 (no surprise, 2012 coalition bias) and MN-07 (Peterson is at best a toss-up for re-election). But districts that Trump won in the Midwest should not be rated Likely D. They're making the same dumb candidate and fundraising judgments that will skew their ratings towards incumbents and against R-trending districts.

[Gracile]

Mark Walker update:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1202604632293421056