1952: Truman vs. Nixon

[President Johnson]

What if in 1952 Harry S. Truman runs again and gets the nomination, while the Republicans nominate young senator Richard Nixon for president? Truman in the campaign attacks Nixon for his inexperience while Nixon focusses on Korea and corruption issues at the time. Is America in 1952 (al)ready for Nixon?

[One Term Floridian]

If either Bob Taft or Richard Nixon clinched the GOP nomination that year, I’m almost certain Truman would’ve ran for another term. He was already considering it for a while until literally one of the most popular world figures at the time became the GOP nominee.

Truman believed he could win in another upset against a particularly conservative and/or inexperienced opponent. However, we’d probably start seeing a quicker collapse of Dems in the South since he would probably campaign more on civil rights than either Nixon would or Stevenson or Ike did IRL. We would also see Truman successfully tie Nixon to controversial Sen Joseph McCarthy during the campaign. The names of the VPs are irrelevant in this election as they wouldn’t make much of a difference in the results at all. Let’s say Nixon nominates a more elderly statesman but this doesn’t help him.

Truman wins his last term in a close race getting 267 electoral votes, just above a majority and Nixon gets 227 and a southern racist gets the other 37. The popular vote is even closer, with Truman winning by just about a point. There are a few credible allegations of voter fraud in some states, but Nixon opts out of a recount in those states.  

[MIKESOWELL]

I have a question for this thread. If Truman moved even further to the left on Civil Rights in this election, is it possible that J. Strom Thurmond switches allegiance to the GOP this year and runs with Nixon as the VP?

[One Term Floridian]

I have a question for this thread. If Truman moved even further to the left on Civil Rights in this election, is it possible that J. Strom Thurmond switches allegiance to the GOP this year and runs with Nixon as the VP?

I could see the switch happening sooner, but I highly doubt Nixon would add him on the ticket. And depending on how RN wants to be perceived on civil rights, Thurmond could join him on the stump in the South.

[darklordoftech]

I have a question for this thread. If Truman moved even further to the left on Civil Rights in this election, is it possible that J. Strom Thurmond switches allegiance to the GOP this year and runs with Nixon as the VP?

I think Thurmond would be toxic outside the South and therefore Nixon wouldn’t want to be associated with him.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

I have a question for this thread. If Truman moved even further to the left on Civil Rights in this election, is it possible that J. Strom Thurmond switches allegiance to the GOP this year and runs with Nixon as the VP?

I could see the switch happening sooner, but I highly doubt Nixon would add him on the ticket. And depending on how RN wants to be perceived on civil rights, Thurmond could join him on the stump in the South.

I doubt it. There was still a lot of uncertainty in 1952 of how a Republican, especially down the ballot, would fare in the South. 1964 Strom Thurmond had the benefit of hindsight regarding the GOP's performance in South Carolina in the 1952 and 1960 presidential elections, and the 1962 senate election. Though its important to note that in 1952 Thurmond had already effectively abandoned the national Democratic Party when he endorsed the Eisenhower/Nixon ticket over Stevenson/Sparkman.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I really don't think Nixon runs then...he was barely old enough to be president and experience was a big deal in 1952.

[President Johnson]

I have a question for this thread. If Truman moved even further to the left on Civil Rights in this election, is it possible that J. Strom Thurmond switches allegiance to the GOP this year and runs with Nixon as the VP?

I doubt that, not just because Thurmond would hurt Nixon outside the South, but also because Nixon supported civil rights as early as the 1950s.

[morgankingsley]

I bet that a southerner would win more than just 4 states. I think they would at least get Georgia and Arkansas

[Sir Mohamed]

To be honest, I just don't see how Truman pulls it off in 1952, he was just too damn unpopular. Polls would have tightened over the fall, I guess, but just no way he wins.

✓ Senator Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Senator James H. Duff (R-PA): 375 EVs.; 50.0%
President Harry S. Truman (D-MO)/Vice President Alben Barkley (D-KY): 119 EVs.; 44.5%
Governor Fielding Wright (DIX-MS)/Senator John Sparman (DIX-AL): 37 EVs.; 4.2%

[connally68]

Even if Truman did run there was no way he could beat any Republican. Even Taft would win a close race against Truman. His approval rating was in the low 20s! The war in Korea destroyed any chance he would have for reelection. 

[President Johnson]

To be honest, I just don't see how Truman pulls it off in 1952, he was just too damn unpopular. Polls would have tightened over the fall, I guess, but just no way he wins.

✓ Senator Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Senator James H. Duff (R-PA): 375 EVs.; 50.0%
President Harry S. Truman (D-MO)/Vice President Alben Barkley (D-KY): 119 EVs.; 44.5%
Governor Fielding Wright (DIX-MS)/Senator John Sparman (DIX-AL): 37 EVs.; 4.2%

I think this is pretty close to what would have happened. Give or take the <40% states. Nixon would have been seen as a fresh new face against a president with very low approvals.

[morgankingsley]

To be honest, I just don't see how Truman pulls it off in 1952, he was just too damn unpopular. Polls would have tightened over the fall, I guess, but just no way he wins.

✓ Senator Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Senator James H. Duff (R-PA): 375 EVs.; 50.0%
President Harry S. Truman (D-MO)/Vice President Alben Barkley (D-KY): 119 EVs.; 44.5%
Governor Fielding Wright (DIX-MS)/Senator John Sparman (DIX-AL): 37 EVs.; 4.2%

I think this is pretty close to what would have happened. Give or take the <40% states. Nixon would have been seen as a fresh new face against a president with very low approvals.

I think that wright would win Arkansas in this

[Alben Barkley]

Everyone said that Truman was done, had no chance, etc. in 1948. Look how that turned out!

All the polls said he would lose (although they did start to tighten up towards the end).

The TV networks literally only had graphics prepared for a Republican victory.

The radio announcers were insisting all night Dewey would win even as the returns came in and it became increasingly clear he would not.

And of course, the Chicago Tribune infamously printed "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" as their next day headline.

And... He actually flipped some Dewey states from 1944, and improved on FDR's margins in others! His overall electoral victory was very comfortable, even with the Dixiecrats splitting the vote in the South!

You have to remember polling was still in its infancy and was not very reliable at the time, and the nation as a whole was less polarized so the polls would often shift rapidly in large swings with public opinion. If  "Give 'em Hell Harry" could pull off another campaign like 1948? Just maybe he could have beaten the odds again. He was one of the most, if not THE most, underrated politicians and campaigners in modern history. His ability to campaign on the stump and connect to the common man was insane. One-on-one he would have destroyed Tricky Dick.

Ike? Yeah, I'll concede Ike probably would have killed him, as he would have anybody that year. But Nixon? I think Truman would have at the very least had a fighting chance against him. He could have torn Nixon apart on his lack of experience and his awkward, shifty persona.

Also I don't believe the Dixiecrats would have pulled their third party stunt again; their whole original goal was to force an electoral deadlock, but when it became clear they couldn't do that effectively they decided not to try it again until 1968 (and to a much lesser extent 1960, when only Mississippi and kind of Alabama rebelled). As it was, Stevenson was hardly a Southern Democrat or any less progressive on Civil Rights than Truman was. They nonetheless did not challenge him. They likely would not have Truman either, so he would have probably swept the whole South this time (when he would actually be on the ballot), in addition to still at least having a shot in much of the Midwest and West he won before. It would be a mistake to rule him out.

[connally68]

If not for the War in Korea, Truman would have had no problem being re elected. Nixon would have made tiny inroads in the south, but Truman would have still carried Texas and probably Oklahoma even with the war.

[Bidenworth2020]

If either Bob Taft or Richard Nixon clinched the GOP nomination that year, I’m almost certain Truman would’ve ran for another term. He was already considering it for a while until literally one of the most popular world figures at the time became the GOP nominee.

Truman believed he could win in another upset against a particularly conservative and/or inexperienced opponent. However, we’d probably start seeing a quicker collapse of Dems in the South since he would probably campaign more on civil rights than either Nixon would or Stevenson or Ike did IRL. We would also see Truman successfully tie Nixon to controversial Sen Joseph McCarthy during the campaign. The names of the VPs are irrelevant in this election as they wouldn’t make much of a difference in the results at all. Let’s say Nixon nominates a more elderly statesman but this doesn’t help him.

Truman wins his last term in a close race getting 267 electoral votes, just above a majority and Nixon gets 227 and a southern racist gets the other 37. The popular vote is even closer, with Truman winning by just about a point. There are a few credible allegations of voter fraud in some states, but Nixon opts out of a recount in those states.  

I agree that Harry could have pulled it off, but I disagree with you on his path. I think he could win by basically emulating Carter's map, as there probably would have been a coming home affect in the south (even Stevenson won the deep south) and improving in the Northeast.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Richard Nixon (CA) / Harold Stassen (MN)  280  51.8%
Harry Truman (MO) / Alben Barkley (KY)    214  46.2%
Unpledged Electors                                     19    1.1%
Others                                                                 .9%

[connally68]

I would switch Washington and South Carolina; otherwise, I agree.

[HisGrace]

Even if Truman did run there was no way he could beat any Republican. Even Taft would win a close race against Truman. His approval rating was in the low 20s! The war in Korea destroyed any chance he would have for reelection.  

Yeah, Truman was much less popular in 52 than 48. This is like saying there was some scenario where W could have won a third term in 08. No chance.

And even if Nixon wasn't a great candidate he was 1000x better than Dewey who was like Republican Michael Dukakis but even more boring.