MoScout Poll : Parson leads Galloway 53/41
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  MoScout Poll : Parson leads Galloway 53/41
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Author Topic: MoScout Poll : Parson leads Galloway 53/41  (Read 1953 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: October 12, 2019, 12:57:58 PM »

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2019, 12:59:42 PM »

Yep, Missouri looking Safe R for the foreseeable future. 
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Skye
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2019, 01:07:26 PM »

Red state + Popular incumbent. If anything, Likely R, but I really can't see a path for Galloway unless Parson screws up.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2019, 01:10:37 PM »

respectable showing for a Democrat in Missouri, but that's about what I expected. Maybe she can provide enough of a bounce to claim the scalps of Ann Wagner and Caleb Rowden, but that's about it.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2019, 02:24:27 PM »

Safe R, as expected.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2019, 02:32:37 PM »

Dems can make a race of either NH or MO, but this is good news for Parsons. NH, should be the main target, now. Sununu can be beaten.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2019, 04:22:55 PM »

Full cross-tabs
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5da11edc6128266a78efd77e/1570840295640/MOSCOUT+101119.pptx
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2019, 05:14:53 PM »

Yeah, the only way this might become competitive is if Parson becomes unpopular. Missouri is very red, but not quite red enough that an unpopular Republican incumbent would be a shoo in like in Kentucky or Oklahoma.
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Politician
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2019, 08:00:05 PM »

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2019, 10:29:01 AM »

If a Missouri poll has a double-digit lead then you know this isn't going to be close. Safe R
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Pollster
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2019, 11:32:21 AM »

Parsons is very similar in political style to Blunt (easy to paint as an out of touch insider), with the right campaign Galloway can make similar inroads to Kander, though Kander had many personal qualities and specific regional appeal that made him a particularly strong challenger.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2019, 12:15:51 PM »

Parsons is very similar in political style to Blunt (easy to paint as an out of touch insider), with the right campaign Galloway can make similar inroads to Kander, though Kander had many personal qualities and specific regional appeal that made him a particularly strong challenger.

Kander tried to appear as a moderate democrat, he was basically Conor Lamb before Conor Lamb, Galloway on the other hand is basically a carbon copy of Wendy Davis and will likely follow the same fate
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2019, 06:00:23 PM »

May I ask which "personal qualities" make Kander more "relatable" and a "stronger challenger" than Galloway? Presumably the same "personal qualities" that make Jon Tester more "down-to-earth" than Kathleen Williams, Amanda Curtis, and Kim Gillan? Smiley
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2019, 09:15:57 AM »

May I ask which "personal qualities" make Kander more "relatable" and a "stronger challenger" than Galloway? Presumably the same "personal qualities" that make Jon Tester more "down-to-earth" than Kathleen Williams, Amanda Curtis, and Kim Gillan? Smiley

Kander being a veteran, for one, along with his stunt of assembling, and disassembling a weapon.
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Pollster
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2019, 10:55:07 AM »

May I ask which "personal qualities" make Kander more "relatable" and a "stronger challenger" than Galloway? Presumably the same "personal qualities" that make Jon Tester more "down-to-earth" than Kathleen Williams, Amanda Curtis, and Kim Gillan? Smiley

Beyond being a vet (which does score a significant number of points in MO), Kander had a very strong and underreported pre-existing relationship with the Kansas City African American community, and was also decently well-known among the suburban and affluent communities already trending Dem in Clay, Platte, and Buchanan counties, as well as the portions of Kansas City north of the Missouri River (much more affluent and conservative than the city as a whole). He began with a big head start in this densely populated area that Blunt's campaign didn't realize until very late in the game.

I understand the point of this post was to point out sexism, which I agree with 100% and especially in the cases you mentioned. In this particular case, though, Kander was uniquely positioned as a challenger due to his pre-existing ties and cultivated support.
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BP🌹
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2019, 02:21:17 PM »

May I ask which "personal qualities" make Kander more "relatable" and a "stronger challenger" than Galloway? Presumably the same "personal qualities" that make Jon Tester more "down-to-earth" than Kathleen Williams, Amanda Curtis, and Kim Gillan? Smiley

Beyond being a vet (which does score a significant number of points in MO), Kander had a very strong and underreported pre-existing relationship with the Kansas City African American community, and was also decently well-known among the suburban and affluent communities already trending Dem in Clay, Platte, and Buchanan counties, as well as the portions of Kansas City north of the Missouri River (much more affluent and conservative than the city as a whole). He began with a big head start in this densely populated area that Blunt's campaign didn't realize until very late in the game.

I understand the point of this post was to point out sexism, which I agree with 100% and especially in the cases you mentioned. In this particular case, though, Kander was uniquely positioned as a challenger due to his pre-existing ties and cultivated support.
Huh?
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Pollster
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2019, 12:55:18 PM »

May I ask which "personal qualities" make Kander more "relatable" and a "stronger challenger" than Galloway? Presumably the same "personal qualities" that make Jon Tester more "down-to-earth" than Kathleen Williams, Amanda Curtis, and Kim Gillan? Smiley

Beyond being a vet (which does score a significant number of points in MO), Kander had a very strong and underreported pre-existing relationship with the Kansas City African American community, and was also decently well-known among the suburban and affluent communities already trending Dem in Clay, Platte, and Buchanan counties, as well as the portions of Kansas City north of the Missouri River (much more affluent and conservative than the city as a whole). He began with a big head start in this densely populated area that Blunt's campaign didn't realize until very late in the game.

I understand the point of this post was to point out sexism, which I agree with 100% and especially in the cases you mentioned. In this particular case, though, Kander was uniquely positioned as a challenger due to his pre-existing ties and cultivated support.
Huh?

St. Joseph is growing both economically and racially, albeit much more slowly than KC's more inner suburbs. The city's mayor Bill McMurray (disclaimer: a friend of mine) is popular and has developed a following in the region, with definite potential for higher office. Buchanan has also been one of Sam Graves' weaker spots in the district, notably in 2014 despite the wave. The county has obviously moved away from Dems since 2008 and is to the right of the state but has shown signs of resistance to the state's R trend, especially for regional statewide candidates.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2019, 03:54:22 PM »

Galloway will likely overperform the Democratic presidential candidate, but she will still lose. Nevertheless, she should keep fighting.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2019, 11:45:11 AM »

May I ask which "personal qualities" make Kander more "relatable" and a "stronger challenger" than Galloway? Presumably the same "personal qualities" that make Jon Tester more "down-to-earth" than Kathleen Williams, Amanda Curtis, and Kim Gillan? Smiley

Beyond being a vet (which does score a significant number of points in MO), Kander had a very strong and underreported pre-existing relationship with the Kansas City African American community, and was also decently well-known among the suburban and affluent communities already trending Dem in Clay, Platte, and Buchanan counties, as well as the portions of Kansas City north of the Missouri River (much more affluent and conservative than the city as a whole). He began with a big head start in this densely populated area that Blunt's campaign didn't realize until very late in the game.

I understand the point of this post was to point out sexism, which I agree with 100% and especially in the cases you mentioned. In this particular case, though, Kander was uniquely positioned as a challenger due to his pre-existing ties and cultivated support.
Huh?

St. Joseph is growing both economically and racially, albeit much more slowly than KC's more inner suburbs. The city's mayor Bill McMurray (disclaimer: a friend of mine) is popular and has developed a following in the region, with definite potential for higher office. Buchanan has also been one of Sam Graves' weaker spots in the district, notably in 2014 despite the wave. The county has obviously moved away from Dems since 2008 and is to the right of the state but has shown signs of resistance to the state's R trend, especially for regional statewide candidates.

Buchanan County perfectly displays the state's R trend better than perhaps any other Missouri County. Buchanan County voted for Obama in 2008 while Missouri narrowly voted for McCain but it has trended so far right that it's voted to the right of the state in every election. Even Nicole Galloway only barely won it by like 2% last year even when she was winning statewide pretty easily
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Canis
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2019, 02:39:12 PM »

Darn Galloway's a good candidate MO's just too red and parson too popular
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