Louisiana 1996

[Plankton5165]

Only four states that were undecided went to Clinton in 1996. The states were Kentucky, Nevada, Arizona, and Louisiana.

Kentucky and Nevada were both decided by 1 point. Arizona was decided by 2 points. Louisiana, however, was decided by 12.07 percentage points! How did that happen?

There are other states that went for Clinton by 2.4 to 10 points that went straight to Clinton just like the District of Columbia, that includes the tipping point state of PA.

[sg0508]

What do you mean undecided? The economy was a big reason he beat Dole pretty badly there in '96, the only southern state he improved upon compared to '92 outside of VA and WV.

[Plankton5165]

It was undecided on CNN, just like only three more states that voted for Clinton: Arizona, Nevada, and Kentucky.

[Sumner 1868]

Polling was terrible in 1996. Here's a long article about it:

http://www2.psych.purdue.edu/~codelab/PollOdds.html

[sg0508]

If you read his book My Life, Clinton was somewhat surprised that '96 ended up even being as close as it was, although he certainly wasn't worried about losing.  He thought states like NC, VA and CO were his, and he was expecting much more of a popular margin than he got.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

It's funny how we talk about 1996 not being as big a blowout as remembered (or was expected due to the polls showing a bigger Clinton lead throughout the campaign)....it was STILL the SECOND WORST defeat for Republicans at the presidential level in the postwar era.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It's funny how we talk about 1996 not being as big a blowout as remembered (or was expected due to the polls showing a bigger Clinton lead throughout the campaign)....it was STILL the SECOND WORST defeat for Republicans at the presidential level in the postwar era.

That's why 1996 is so boring. 1964 was exciting because it was a historic landslide for LBJ, 2008 was the first black president, 1996 was just a solid ass kicking. Dole was barely above being stuck in the high 30's which is always humiliating.

[MIKESOWELL]

I truly believe that the low turnout that hurt Clinton's margins in the end was the result of the inevitability that the media put out there of a historic Clinton landslide. I remember people comparing Clinton's lead to that of FDR in 1936, LBJ in 1964, Nixon in '72 and Reagan in '84. A lot of people stayed home while the GOP did a very good job of getting their base out to vote on Election Day. I live in a heavily Democratic city and I remember going to school that day (back then students still went to school on Election Day) and barely saw anyone even show up to vote.

[Plankton5165]

I truly believe that the low turnout that hurt Clinton's margins in the end was the result of the inevitability that the media put out there of a historic Clinton landslide. I remember people comparing Clinton's lead to that of FDR in 1936, LBJ in 1964, Nixon in '72 and Reagan in '84. A lot of people stayed home while the GOP did a very good job of getting their base out to vote on Election Day. I live in a heavily Democratic city and I remember going to school that day (back then students still went to school on Election Day) and barely saw anyone even show up to vote.

This kind of makes me feel bad for Clinton. But at least he got two terms.

[538Electoral]

LA neighbored AR and Clinton proved popular in LA.

[Vosem]

I truly believe that the low turnout that hurt Clinton's margins in the end was the result of the inevitability that the media put out there of a historic Clinton landslide. I remember people comparing Clinton's lead to that of FDR in 1936, LBJ in 1964, Nixon in '72 and Reagan in '84. A lot of people stayed home while the GOP did a very good job of getting their base out to vote on Election Day. I live in a heavily Democratic city and I remember going to school that day (back then students still went to school on Election Day) and barely saw anyone even show up to vote.

This kind of makes me feel bad for Clinton. But at least he got two terms.

Why? His 1996 victory was an under-performance compared to polling, sure, but it was so large that no subsequent election has exceeded the margin, in EV or PV (2008 came close in both, but matched it in neither).

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If you read his book My Life, Clinton was somewhat surprised that '96 ended up even being as close as it was, although he certainly wasn't worried about losing.  He thought states like NC, VA and CO were his, and he was expecting much more of a popular margin than he got.

NC didn't turn out to be close at all. Clinton was probably hurt by sharing a ballot with arch enemy Helms, whose supporters were probably much more likely to turn out anyway.