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  What will a future Democratic landslide look like?
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Author Topic: What will a future Democratic landslide look like?  (Read 1093 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: October 12, 2019, 10:54:29 pm »

Given polarization trends which we have seen in recent years, what will a future Democratic landslide victory, say, in about 10-30 years, look like? It is obviously not going to resemble the landslides of generations past. How many counties would you expect Republicans to still win? Which states? And would Democrats even manage to gain a majority of the white vote?

Discuss below.
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Great Society
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2019, 11:37:27 pm »

It probably would be when the millennials are older so I'd say about 20 years from now and I'd say it would be the re-election of a Democratic president that is popular with those millennial voters, with a good and growing economy, and a very weak Republican nominee.

The landslide map would be not as near-totally blue like Nixon '72 or Reagan '84 was near-totally red but the key swing states of Georgia, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona would all probably be blue on it.
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WithLeast
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2019, 12:50:06 am »

I would think a future Democratic landslide would be something similar to 1964, but instead of the south going republican it would be the mountain states (ID, WY, NE-3, ND, SD).

Along with the few Republican states there would also be a somewhat out of place state that would vote Republican (for examples sake, lets say New Hampshire). There seems to be a trend during landslides where at least one state that was won by the opposite party should have gone to the winner (1956 - MO, 1964 - AZ, 1984 - MN).
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2019, 01:11:05 am »

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Fwillb21
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2019, 03:51:11 am »


Thatís what I call a blue tsunami!
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2019, 08:24:47 am »


This, pretty much.

The question here is really what the core of the Republican Party will be in the future- I think it stays the same. Mormons, Flyover country, the Great Plains, Oil and Coal states. The biggest possible landslide will have the GOP carrying those (sounds big, but not worth a lot of votes). What'll change is the Deep South, as demographics and the Republicans' growing distance from social conservatism will deliver parts to the Democrats. By the 2050s, this probably means Mississippi and maybe Louisiana, then South Carolina in the 2070s, and by the end of the century, maybe even Alabama. Who's to say the same effect won't make some northern states safe Republican, like New Hampshire and Maine?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2019, 12:45:08 pm »

This is what I would guess for an FDR 1936/LBJ 1964 scenario in the the relatively distant future (think 2040's).  The Dem is getting 60% of the NPV. 

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2019, 10:52:17 pm »

This is what I would guess for an FDR 1936/LBJ 1964 scenario in the the relatively distant future (think 2040's).  The Dem is getting 60% of the NPV. 



This seems like a plausible map, given ongoing trends. It would be something if the Democrat did receive >60% of the vote in Kansas, though. Of the six times Democrats have won the state (1896, 1912, 1916, 1932, 1936, 1964), they have never won it by more than a single-digit margin. Of course, they have won by double-digit margins several times in statewide races, such as in Sebelius's 2006 reelection as Governor.
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АverroŽs 🦉
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2019, 10:13:55 am »

Here's a Democratic landslide based on a caricature of present trends:



Unless something in our economy happens to disrupt the disconnect between large/connected metros and the rest of the country, especially the small towns and cities of the Midwest, I doubt that we'll see Republicans improving in the former or Democrats improving in the latter.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2019, 04:11:08 pm »

This is what I would guess for an FDR 1936/LBJ 1964 scenario in the the relatively distant future (think 2040's).  The Dem is getting 60% of the NPV. 



This seems like a plausible map, given ongoing trends. It would be something if the Democrat did receive >60% of the vote in Kansas, though. Of the six times Democrats have won the state (1896, 1912, 1916, 1932, 1936, 1964), they have never won it by more than a single-digit margin. Of course, they have won by double-digit margins several times in statewide races, such as in Sebelius's 2006 reelection as Governor.

So much of the political atmosphere there reminds me of when the longstanding Dem political machines in the South were breaking down during 1980-2010, right down to the de facto 3rd party caucus in the legislature.  Also note that R governors broke through before flipping other offices in most of these states.  A lot of people in Kansas are only voting R because of tradition at this point. 

The big wildcard is the South, particularly the more urbanized states.  Do Dems hit a wall after cutting the typical R margins in half like NC, or does it just keep going until they end up decisively Dem leaning like VA?  Georgia seems most likely to go the VA path as Atlanta is big enough to control the state outright.
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Beef
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2019, 02:21:19 pm »

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Politician
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2019, 02:24:35 pm »

Here's a Democratic landslide based on a caricature of present trends:



Unless something in our economy happens to disrupt the disconnect between large/connected metros and the rest of the country, especially the small towns and cities of the Midwest, I doubt that we'll see Republicans improving in the former or Democrats improving in the latter.
WY voting to the left of WI LMAO
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Beef
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2019, 02:44:31 pm »

Here's a Democratic landslide based on a caricature of present trends:



Unless something in our economy happens to disrupt the disconnect between large/connected metros and the rest of the country, especially the small towns and cities of the Midwest, I doubt that we'll see Republicans improving in the former or Democrats improving in the latter.
WY voting to the left of WI LMAO

Playing Devil's advocate, Trump won Wyoming by 118,000 votes. Weld County, CO has added 133,000 residents over the past 18 years. If the I-25 sprawl swallows up Cheyenne, it wouldn't take very long to make the state competitive.
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2019, 08:29:25 am »

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Smash255
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« Reply #14 on: November 09, 2019, 12:47:55 pm »

Here's a Democratic landslide based on a caricature of present trends:



Unless something in our economy happens to disrupt the disconnect between large/connected metros and the rest of the country, especially the small towns and cities of the Midwest, I doubt that we'll see Republicans improving in the former or Democrats improving in the latter.
WY voting to the left of WI LMAO

Playing Devil's advocate, Trump won Wyoming by 118,000 votes. Weld County, CO has added 133,000 residents over the past 18 years. If the I-25 sprawl swallows up Cheyenne, it wouldn't take very long to make the state competitive.

That is a bit of a stretch considering how much Wyoming would need to grow in order to cover that margin (it ism't like those going into Weld are heavily Democratic).   Larimer is a Democratic leaning area and perhaps I see that picking up, but Weld and the new transplants there certainly have a ways to go, so even if they I-25 sprawl makes it to Cheyenne it probably isn't going to be Democratic enough to make the state competitive.   On top of that most of the growth in the I-25 corridor north of Denver is from Fort Collins and Greely on south.   The growth is much less limited as you get north of there.
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Wazza
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« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2019, 08:38:16 pm »

Here's a Democratic landslide based on a caricature of present trends:



Unless something in our economy happens to disrupt the disconnect between large/connected metros and the rest of the country, especially the small towns and cities of the Midwest, I doubt that we'll see Republicans improving in the former or Democrats improving in the latter.
WY voting to the left of WI LMAO

Playing Devil's advocate, Trump won Wyoming by 118,000 votes. Weld County, CO has added 133,000 residents over the past 18 years. If the I-25 sprawl swallows up Cheyenne, it wouldn't take very long to make the state competitive.

Weld County voted Trump by over 20 points and trended R in 2016. Even when assuming these areas are going to keep growing indefinitely, the amount of time it would take for Laramie county to become large and profoundly blue enough to flip Wyoming in this paradigm would be so long that by the time it happens the GOP already would have already adapted to the significantly more urban environment in order to remain electable thus making this extrapolation useless.
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Laki
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« Reply #16 on: November 17, 2019, 08:36:36 am »
« Edited: November 17, 2019, 08:41:26 am by Laki »

A 65-35 win for Democrats in the PV in 2040 will turn out like this.



In this scenario, i have a succesful third party: American Independence Party, building on the legacy of Trump.

Montana should have been blue though.
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