Hungarian elections and politics

[Estrella]

Understandably overshadowed by the Sejm elections of their - historically and increasingly politically as well - BFFs in Poland, today Hungary is holding elections for their village, town, borough and city mayors and councillors, county councils and, perhaps most importantly, the mayor of Budapest.

I'm kinda interested in Hungarian politics and IMO it's better to have a general thread like this for occasional updates/questions, rather than post stuff in the much quiter International General Discussion.

I'll try to post an overview of the results tonight and later when I have time, I'll try to write a somewhat detailed introduction to Hungarian politics, similarly to my Slovakia thread.

So far, the turnout seems to be high, especially in Budapest. This could lead to a repeat of the parliamentary elections in 2018, when the liberal opposition swept the capital, but absolutely bombed in the countryside, where Fidesz strengthened and the opposition vote went to Jobbik. It could also turn into a situation similar to Istanbul's mayoral election earlier this year, which would be a rather bad moral defeat for ErdOrbán.

[Estrella]

An apparently non-geoblocked livestream of the Radio and Television Broadcasting Committee of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea M1 public television here: https://mediaklikk.hu/m1-elo/

Edit: apparently it doesn't work when linking to it from other sites, so you have to go to mediaklikk.hu > Élő (top right corner) > M1

Constant editorializing about Dear Leader aside, they had a really good presentation of results in 2018. I can't find any good results website, and the Electoral Commission's one seems to be quite crappy.

[Keep Calm and ...]

I found a resultpage. In Budapest Karácsony is in front
https://24.hu/app/onkormanyzati-valasztas-2019/?content=results&tab=capital

[Beagle]

There are no run-offs, right?

[ON Progressive]

I found a resultpage. In Budapest Karácsony is in front
https://24.hu/app/onkormanyzati-valasztas-2019/?content=results&tab=capital

Getting an error on that page.

[Beagle]

Tarlós (incumbent-Fidesz) has conceded, Karácsony (combined opposition) wins Budapest - and probably with a working majority too. Along with wins in several unexpected Budapest districts, Miskolc, Pecs etc., this is shaping as a rather substantial win for the opposition.

[Keep Calm and ...]

The official result website:
https://www.valasztas.hu/d4/onk19/szavossz/onkval/hu/foejelolt.html

[Estrella]

There are no run-offs, right?

No, after getting their constitution-altering majority in 2010, Fidesz abolished all runofs, which has helped them greatly until now, when opposition finally started getting their sh't together (thanks in part to Jobbik's moderation, which enabled them to eg. give tacit support to many liberal candidates)

And now, let's take a look at the most important race, Budapest.

The result in 2014 was:
István Tarlós (Fidesz - oficialismo) 49.1%
Lajos Bokros (MoMa - liberal) 36.0%
Gábor Staudt (Jobbik - nationalist) 7.1%
Antal Csárdi (LMP - green) 5.7%
Zoltán Bodnár (MLP - liberal) 2.1%
turnout 43.1%

The candidates this year are:
Gergely Karácsony, the candidate of the liberal opposition, supported by:
- Momentum Movement (Momentum Mozgalom), a liberal party that scored 9.9% in this year's EP elections
- Democratic Coalition (Demokratikus Koalíció), a social-liberal personal outfit of scandal-stricken ex-PM Gyurcsány, largest opposition party in the EP (16%)
- Hungarian Socialist Party (Magyar Szocialista Párt), or rather the Pasokified/PvdA-ized/Avoda-ed (take your pick) remnants thereof (6.6% in EP)
- Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd Magyarországért), a left-leaning (emphasis on the leaning), green and progressive party
- Politics Can Be Different (Lehet Más a Politika) - indistinguishable from Párbeszéd, except for their, until now, stubborn refusal to cooperate with other opposition parties, so much so that it has prompted suspicions of them being fake opposition à la Spravedlivaya Rossiya.

István Tarlós - the incumbent mayor, supported by the ruling Fidesz and their sock puppet KDNP (Christian Democratic People's Party)

Róbert Puzsér - independent TV personality close to LMP

Krisztián Berki - soccer player, most likely a Fidesz-planted spoiler candidate

[Ebsy]

The opposition is making big gains. They have won Budapest and 10 other major cities. By far the biggest electoral defeat for Orban since he took power!

[rob in cal]

  Obviously a big victory for opposition, but had they run united single candidates in Budapest in the parliamentary 2018 elections as well they would have won several more seats then, at or close to a majority of the Budapest delegation, so winning now shows us what they could have done with just a little more team work last year.

[Ethelberth]

All county councils (except Budapest) are in hands of Fidesz.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

it will never cease to astound me that Gyurcsany still has a following and a political career, and in some polls is leading the Hungarian opposition.

[Estrella]

it will never cease to astound me that Gyurcsany still has a following and a political career, and in some polls is leading the Hungarian opposition.

IMO he's not nearly as bad as he's made up to be. Better a honest crook than a just as corrupt wannabe dictator.

[Omega21]

You guys realize that the United Opposition actually includes a real neo-Nazi party, right?

In Hungary, some left-wing Jews are ready to work with a far-right party led by a former neo-Nazi

Members of the New Hungarian Guard stand at a Jobbik rally against a gathering of the World Jewish Congress in Budapest, 4 May 2013

https://www.jta.org/2019/08/12/global/in-hungary-some-left-wing-jews-are-ready-to-work-with-a-far-right-party-led-by-an-ex-skinhead

https://www.counterextremism.com/threat/jobbik


It's despicable who people will work with just to grab a tiny bit of power, I'm disgusted.

[Estrella]

You guys realize that the United Opposition actually includes a real neo-Nazi party, right?

Akchually, while Jobbik did undoubtedly start out as loud and proud Neo-Nazis, after their 2010 performance they realized that there is a market for a nationalist but rather less NSDAPy opposition party. Slowly, they started tuning down their Nazism and pretending to be something closer to, say, Lega. For example, their posters for the 2018 parliamentary elections try to portray them as a vaguely anti-system nationalist force:

Left: We'll lock out the migrants / raise the wages / lock up the thieves / Enough / Jobbik, on the people's side
Right: THEY are fear / WE are hope

Of course, this doesn't mean that there are suddenly no Nazis in the party, but many of them left to form a more extreme movement called Mi Hazánk (Our Home).

At this point, Fidesz may be more extreme, if in rhetoric and not in actions, than both of those parties. Hungary does have an anti-Semitism problem and Orbán makes heavy use of it with his constant yelling about SOROS SOROS SOROS, which is more than your standard anti-globalist-big-business-ism:

National Consultation 2017 >> 99% rejects illegal immigration
Don't let Soros have the last laugh!

(Note that all these Soros posters are government-funded)

Now that I'm talking about it, this just scratches the surface of how profoundly weird Hungarian parties are:
- Rich regions and young people vote for the right, as is usual in Eastern Europe, except that the right, viz. Fidesz and Jobbik, is actually more conservative and economically statist than the left, even if this isn't quite as true as it was before 2010/2014, when rich = Fidesz, young and poor = Jobbik
- Before 2010, when MSZP was the only left-wing party, they had the typical social democratic electorate (older, working class), despite being both economically and socially liberal. In 2010, those voters defected mostly to Jobbik.
- Not to mention that Orbán actually started out as a libertarian (!), 'Fidesz' stands for 'Society of Young Democrats' (literally - the membership had a 35 years age limit), and only after two relatively poor election performances did he do a 180° and turn into a populist and the guardian of everything Hungarian.

[Omega21]

You guys realize that the United Opposition actually includes a real neo-Nazi party, right?

Akchually, while Jobbik did undoubtedly start out as loud and proud Neo-Nazis, after their 2010 performance they realized that there is a market for a nationalist but rather less NSDAPy opposition party. Slowly, they started tuning down their Nazism and pretending to be something closer to, say, Lega. For example, their posters for the 2018 parliamentary elections try to portray them as a vaguely anti-system nationalist force:

Left: We'll lock out the migrants / raise the wages / lock up the thieves / Enough / Jobbik, on the people's side
Right: THEY are fear / WE are hope

Of course, this doesn't mean that there are suddenly no Nazis in the party, but many of them left to form a more extreme movement called Mi Hazánk (Our Home).

At this point, Fidesz may be more extreme, if in rhetoric and not in actions, than both of those parties. Hungary does have an anti-Semitism problem and Orbán makes heavy use of it with his constant yelling about SOROS SOROS SOROS, which is more than your standard anti-globalist-big-business-ism:

National Consultation 2017 >> 99% rejects illegal immigration
Don't let Soros have the last laugh!

(Note that all these Soros posters are government-funded)

Now that I'm talking about it, this just scratches the surface of how profoundly weird Hungarian parties are:
- Rich regions and young people vote for the right, as is usual in Eastern Europe, except that the right, viz. Fidesz and Jobbik, is actually more conservative and economically statist than the left, even if this isn't quite as true as it was before 2010/2014, when rich = Fidesz, young and poor = Jobbik
- Before 2010, when MSZP was the only left-wing party, they had the typical social democratic electorate (older, working class), despite being both economically and socially liberal. In 2010, those voters defected mostly to Jobbik.
- Not to mention that Orbán actually started out as a libertarian (!), 'Fidesz' stands for 'Society of Young Democrats' (literally - the membership had a 35 years age limit), and only after two relatively poor election performances did he do a 180° and turn into a populist and the guardian of everything Hungarian.

I completely understand what you are saying, but the only thing Orban really does is scream Soros, and his party has never openly done anything anti-Semitic.

On the other hand, in 2012 and 2013 Jobbik openly protested the Jewish congress, and their deputy called for a damn blacklist of Jews in Hungary.

I don't care how they identify now, their core is formed from literal neo-Nazis, and anyone offering them as an alternative to the current Govt is out of their mind.

I personally would much rather have edgy Soros posters than the black-shirts wearing quasi Swastikas marching through the city.

[Famous Mortimer]

No party aligned with either the government or the opposition supports killing the Jews. No party aligned with either the government or the opposition supports stripping Jews of citizenship. No party aligned with either the government or the opposition supports any policy that targets Jews specifically in any way. Claims of anti-Semitism on both sides are dumb politically motivated smears.

and obviously Hungarian politicians criticizing the world's richest Hungarian is no more anti-Semitic than an American politician criticizing Jeff Bezos is anti-white. Anyone who says otherwise is just being disingenuous.

[Ebsy]

In addition to the capital, Budapest, the opposition prevailed in mayoralships in the following 10 large cities:

Tatabánya
Szeged*
Békéscsaba
Dunaújváros
Eger
Hódmezővásárhely*
Pécs
Miskolc
Érd
Salgótarján*
Szombathely
*cities that the opposition already held

[Estrella]

So, as I promised, here's the first part of a guide of sorts to post-1989 Hungarian politics. It's not quite as detailed as I wanted, it's rather more...let's say concise If you have any questions, do ask!


After the Communist assumption of power in 1949 and creation of Hungarian People's Republic, of all Eastern Block countries Hungary followed the Stalinist model most closely, with rapid collectivization, mass purges, and a cult of personality around the leader of Hungarian Workers' Party, Mátyás Rákosi. In October 1956, the tyranny of the regime provoked a series of protests that led to overthrow of the government and an ill-fated attempt at Yugoslavia-like socialism. Despite the revolution being suppressed by Soviet troops, the following three decades were characterised by a softening of the regime's policies and "goulash communism" - the government permitted free enterprise, loosened restrictions on culture and travel, allowed political satire and generally put ideology aside and emphasized improving the quality of life.

This liberalization came to a head in 1989: in April Hungary lifted the Iron Curtain along its borders, in summer the government began negotiating with opposition groups and finally on October 23, Hungarian Republic removed the "People's" part from its name. Free elections were scheduled to spring 1990.

Elections 1990 | Turnout: 65% and 45%
MDF 24.7% / 164 (Hungarian Democratic Forum | national conservatives)
SZDSZ 21.4% / 92 (Alliance of Free Democrats | liberals)
FKGP 11.7% / 44 (Independent Smallholders Party | national conservatives, agrarians)
MSZP 10.9% / 33 (Hungarian Socialist Party | renamed reformist post-Communists)
Fidesz 9.0% / 22 (Alliance of Young Democrats | libertarians - seriously)
KDNP 6.5% / 21 (Christian Democratic People's Party | Christian democrats - duh)
Others 15.8% / 10

In the first democratic elections since WWII, 386 seats were elected in two rounds using a massively complicated electoral system (you can read more on wiki) that was, in effect, a parallel voting system similar to the one used in Japan's House of Representatives. Perhaps because of the gradual and "boring" nature of transition to democracy, turnout was surprisingly low. MDF leader József Antall formed a right-wing government of MDF, FKGP, and KDNP.

Cautious optimism was very quickly replaced by panic as, to put it plainly, everything went to sh't. Hungary's relative prosperity was built on sand - specifically subsidized heavy industries using dirt-cheap Soviet raw materials whose supply dried up as USSR collapsed, big but uncompetitive agricultural sector, and heavy borrowing (by 1990s, Hungary had the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world). The economy promptly went into a tailspin and government's ineptness and resistance to reforms (apart from slashing subsidies, which didn't exactly make people happy) led to waves of strikes and skyrocketing unemployment, inflation, poverty and crime. Antall himself died in 1993 (a couple of days before his death he famously gave an interview from his hospital bed about a taxi drivers' blockade of Budapest streets) and was replaced by no less incompetent Péter Boross, who led MDF into the next election.

Election 1994 | Turnout: 69%
MSZP 33.0% / 209
SZDSZ 19.7% / 69
MDF 11.7% / 38
FKGP 8.8% / 26
KDNP 7.0% / 22
Fidesz 7.0% / 20
Others 12.8% / 2

Unsurprisingly, after the chaos of past few years, Socialist rule and the return of good old times it was supposed to bring suddenly seemed like a much more appealing alternative. Government parties were clobbered and, despite getting only a third of the vote, Socialists won a majority by themselves. Despite that, MSZP's Gyula Horn formed a seemingly unconventional coalition with the (neo)liberal SZDSZ.


To be continued later because I'm lazy

[DC Al Fine]

Great start, looking forward to the rest. There should be more of these on Atlas.

[Estrella]

Great start, looking forward to the rest. There should be more of these on Atlas.

Thanks! And yeah, more previews like this would be an interesting read, even for the not-so-obscure countries.


Instead of a return to the era of goulash communism, the Horn government and its Finance Minister Lajos Bokros brought shock therapy measures, deep spending cuts and mass privatizations. This Bokros package, while unpopular with the Socialist base, managed to pass due to MSZP top brass having abandoned all prentenses of socialism and instead focusing on economic growth - which, by the late 1990s, did come, despite a sharp reduction of real incomes and continuing high inflation.

The common people weren't so pleased though, and economic hardships awakened nationalist resentment about the Treaty of Trianon, signed after the (Austro-)Hungarian defeat in WW1, that left several million Hungarians living in newly created neighbouring countries, most of them in Slovakia and Hungary. Meanwhile, the leader of Fidesz, a certain libertarian by the name of Viktor Orbán realized where he needs to fish for votes, and turned Fidesz into a socially conservative, nationalist and economically statist party, without even bothering to change their name.

Election 1998 | Turnout: 56%
Fidesz 28.2% / 148
MSZP 32.2% / 134
FKGP 13.8% / 48
SZDSZ 7.9% / 24
MDF 3.1% / 17
MIÉP 5.5% / 14 (Hungarian Justice and Life Party | far-right nationalists)
Others 9.3% / 1

MSZP stayed at the same level vote-wise as in 1994, but due to an electoral alliance between Fidesz and FKGP and big SZDSZ losses, the incumbent Socialist-Free Democrat coalition lost its majority and was replaced by the first Orbán cabinet of Fidesz, Smallholders and the MDF. This government mostly continued with a more moderate version of Bokros economic policies - the transition from state to market economy was finished and taxes were lowered, but social security spending increased and university tuitions were abolished. Orbán also engaged in tough chauvinistic rhetoric towards neighbouring countries with Hungarian minorities and - in hindsight, this is not surprising in the slightest - regularly ran roughshod over the Parliament and opposition by reducing legislative sessions, ignoring PMQs and appointing directors of institutions and parastatals as he wished.

Election 2002 | Turnout: 71%
MSZP 42.1% / 179
Fidesz+MDF 41.1% / 188
SZDSZ 5.6% / 19
Others 11.2% / 0

As the economy finally took off, FKGP was buried under an avalanche of corruption scandals and MDF formed a joint list with Fidesz, Orbán's outlook looked good, but MSZP switched to a more left-wing platform and was able to narrowly come first and form a coalition with SZDSZ under Péter Medgyessy.

[Estrella]

B I G   T E N T

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1340725484401913856

[Estrella]

"Centre-right" is a mighty dubious way to describe Jobbik, but they've changed a lot since the days when they had their own paramilitary and yelled a lot about Felvidék and Jews, mostly through a departure of the craziest ones to a new party, Mi Hazánk (Our Home).

They have an English site if you want to read more about what they have to say and it's interesting how they don't talk about their formerly favourite topics (hooked noses etc) but rather about how Orbán is a dictator.

If we want to go all #comparativepolitics, Hungary reminds me of Turkey in many ways, so this new Jobbik looks like the İYİ party - former far-right nutters who are pretending to be (and maybe really are) more moderate and made an alliance with leftish opposition to take down an authoritarian incumbent despite the fact they used to be even more radical than him.

Also they definitely stole their new logo from DeviantArt.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

B I G   T E N T

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1340725484401913856

Holy moly, that's the mother of all compromise coalitions. I guess they had no choice, this is the only way the election could even be remotely competitive.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

B I G   T E N T

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1340725484401913856

Wasn't something like this done for the most recent local elections?