Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: Michigan
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 02:28:39 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: Michigan		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Who will win the Michigan Democratic Primary?
#1
Joe Biden		  
#2
Pete Buttigieg		  
#3
Kamala Harris		  
#4
Bernie Sanders		  
#5
Elizabeth Warren		  
#6
Other		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 93

Author Topic: Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: Michigan  (Read 1263 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 14, 2019, 10:47:37 AM »
« edited: October 14, 2019, 10:50:42 AM by Xing »




Biden
Sanders
Warren

Vote here in the previous polls if you haven't already!

February
IA NH NV SC

Super Tuesday
AL AS AR CA CO DA ME MA MN NC OK TN TX UT VT VA

March 10th
ID

Special thanks to Hades for the map of the territories!

Michigan should be interesting, as it was in 2016. It's probably one of the Sanders states that Biden has a decent chance of winning, and Warren's path probably includes very strong numbers in Ann Arbor, Grand Rapids, staying competitive in Detroit, and winning the surrounding area. Not sure how rural Michigan will go, though Biden will probably want strong numbers there to win. I'll go with Toss-Up/Tilt Biden for now, but I could see Warren winning and I expect it to be the most competitive state on March 10th.
Logged
😥
andjey
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,510
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2019, 12:28:15 PM »
Joe Biden
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2019, 01:16:18 PM »
I expect the pundits to declare it an easy win for Biden only for Warren to win it by more than Bernie did in 2016.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2019, 01:40:31 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 14, 2019, 01:16:18 PM
I expect the pundits to declare it an easy win for Biden only for Warren to win it by more than Bernie did in 2016.
Warren is a poor fit for Michigan.

My prediction:

Joe 32%
Bernie 25%
Warren 22%
Buttigieg 10%
Yang 4%
Gabbard 3%
Harris 2%
Klobuchar 1%
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,981
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2019, 06:55:45 PM »
This is a tough one. Clinton won it in 2008 but narrowly lost it to Sanders in 2016. I generally expect this primary to follow a similar pattern but with Biden and Warren in place of Clinton and Sanders respectively. However, I just can't help but think that Biden will defy that pattern here.

I'm not super confident in saying it, but I think I'm going to give it to Biden.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,490
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2019, 06:59:05 PM »
Warren
Logged
538Electoral
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,691


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2019, 11:12:22 PM »
Biden probably.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2019, 12:34:38 AM »
Quote from: SN2903 on October 14, 2019, 01:40:31 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 14, 2019, 01:16:18 PM
I expect the pundits to declare it an easy win for Biden only for Warren to win it by more than Bernie did in 2016.
Warren is a poor fit for Michigan.

She is a poor fit for much of Michigan, yes. Perhaps I gave the wrong impression with my post, I don't expect Warren to win by much, a small single-digit margin if I had to say, but the main reason I think it will go to Warren, in the end, is Michigan is still whiter in the Democratic electorate than the nation and she's still in statistical tie with non-college whites at this point (instead of losing them to Biden). I also think that Biden will do worse among northern black voters than southern black voters, but that's more of a guess based on previous results. I should also add I don't think any major candidates other than Biden and Warren will make it past Super Tuesday except maybe a collapsed Bernie Sanders (in his performance).
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2019, 09:18:47 AM »
Break the tie!
Logged
Galeel
Oashigo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 991
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2019, 10:05:29 AM »
I could really see this one going either way. Expect it to be a close state. I voted Biden, but I'm really not confident.
Logged
Grassroots
Grassr00ts
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,741
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 2.09

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2019, 10:20:31 AM »
Biden.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,748
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2019, 12:17:25 PM »
This one will be close because it's so unpredictable. Depends on the state of the race though.

Don't know if I agree that Warren isn't a good fit for the state considering who Dems nominated for their statewide offices last year, and who the previous Democratic governor was.
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,813


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2019, 01:11:09 PM »
Detroit wins it for Biden.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,748
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2019, 02:10:23 PM »
Didn't win it for Clinton.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2019, 11:35:03 AM »
Break the tie!
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2019, 12:27:59 PM »
Revised:

Warren is a poor fit for Michigan.

Revised prediction:

Joe 28%
Bernie 22%
Warren 15%
Buttigieg 13%
Bloomberg 12%
Gabbard 3%
Yang 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 14 queries.