ME-PPP: Generic Democrat 44%, Collins (R-inc) 41%

[Gracile]

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PPP_Release_ME_101519.pdf

Generally speaking, if the election for US Senate were held today, would you vote for Republican Susan Collins or her Democratic opponent?

Susan Collins 41%
Democratic opponent 44%
Not sure 15%

Respondents were also pushed if they would vote for Collins if she supported/opposed impeachment, and those gave higher margins for Democratic opponent but more undecideds.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not a good poll for Collins, but Generic Dem isn't saying much. Also, too early and too many undecideds to judge the poll. The Dem nominee (likely Gideon) will for sure get 40% of the vote or even 44%, but that's not enough.

[Zaybay]

Time clearly is not on Collins' side. If shes polling even now, she's likely toast come November.

Of course, this is only one poll, so we likely dont have the most accurate picture of what Collins' current percentage is at, but things dont look good for her.

[Brittain33]

I don’t think the usually “Generic X isn’t running” disclaimers is effective here because Collins’ calling card is her supposedly high support across a majority of Maine voters. She should never be polling as Generic R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins will lose

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Interesting tidbits here:

Let’s say Susan Collins opposed impeaching Donald Trump. If that were the case and the election for US Senate were held today, would you vote for Republican Susan Collins or her Democratic opponent?

Susan Collins 40%
Democratic opponent 47%
Not sure 13%

Now let’s say Susan Collins supported impeaching Donald Trump. If that were the case and the election for US Senate were held today, would you vote for Republican Susan Collins or her Democratic opponent?
Susan Collins 32%
Democratic opponent 38%
Not sure 30%

Seems like her re-election prospects don't like ideal whether she supports impeachment or not, but support it drastically improves the likelihood of her getting enough moderate support to hang on and win.

Also, it's very irresponsible of PPP to not poll head-to-head matchups at this point instead of just saying "generic D" because it 1. doesn't test Gideon's name recognition so we have no idea how well she's actually done of reaching voters and 2. doesn't actually threaten Collins to move on impeachment one way or another because "generic D" could be anyone.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I don’t think the usually “Generic X isn’t running” disclaimers is effective here because Collins’ calling card is her supposedly high support across a majority of Maine voters. She should never be polling as Generic R.

Let's also keep in mind this isn't a Southern state where undecideds are undecided about whether they're going to vote Republican. Undecideds in this race are likely to be Democrats and Independents who like Collins personally and have supported her in the past because she's a moderate bipartisan Nice Gal FF, but are unsure if she still is because she hasn't gone against Trump on anything important.

[Person Man]

Trump will carry Collins across the finish line if he wins, even if he loses in Maine. He loses, Collins, Gardner, and McSally are kaput! Democrats will need just one more seat to make up for Jones, if they win. I think they can do it in that situation. In fact, I think they probably take 2 sunbelt senate seats and one other seat.

[Frenchrepublican]

PPP polls are just trash.

[Skunk]

If we lose LA-Gov but win ME-Sen because of impeachment that is absolutely fine by me.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

PPP polls are just trash.

These polls range from 3 to 7 months old and came before the impeachment inquiry.

[Ebsy]

PPP has one of the best records in the industry.... Gravis does not.

[Xing]

Why wouldn't they poll Gideon? Either way, probably too Democratic-friendly for now, but certainly not less believable than Collins +17 or 22.

[Cinemark]

I'd have to see it to believe it, but it definetly makes taking the senate back easier if Democrats can take down Collins.

[Cinemark]

PPP has one of the best records in the industry.... Gravis does not.

Also, yeah. I'm not sure where Frenchrepublican got the idea that PPP was a bad firm. There polling includes cellphones for crying out loud. Not like alot of firms that cheap out and just do online surveys instead.

[Frenchrepublican]

PPP has one of the best records in the industry.... Gravis does not.

It’s not just Gravis
https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2019/five-state-prescription-drug-survey-annotated-questionnaire-ME.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00335.004.pdf
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_W8V6ab5O57VlZHQ1NsR0ZIb0JBM20zU2xkbDktWThwUFow/view

And no PPP is not one of the best pollster. Look at their track record from last year
MO Sen : D+1
FL Sen : D+4
OH Gov : D+7
FL Gov : D+4
WI Gov : D+5
AZ : GOV : R+1

[Frenchrepublican]

PPP polls are just trash.

These polls range from 3 to 7 months old and came before the impeachment inquiry.

So Collins dropped by 15 points in a few months ?

The reality is that Collins is a slight, but clear favourite and she is far from doomed, despite what democrats are wishing.

[Ebsy]

Any firm is going to put out polls that don't perform well, and it is impossible to know which those will be until after the election. This is especially the case in the midterms, where turnout is much more unpredictable. My point is that if you look at PPP's full track record across multiple cycles, they stand up to scrutiny fairly well, much better than Gravis Marketing. If you look at their metrics on 538's pollster rankings, they have a very low mean reverted bias (which means they don't tend to miss in the same direction) and a relatively low average error. You chose to cite a handful of the 411 polls in the database, unsurprisingly the handful that were the worst. It paints an inaccurate picture to say the least.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If we lose LA-Gov but win ME-Sen because of impeachment that is absolutely fine by me.

Hear hear!

[MT Treasurer]

If Collins outperforms Trump by 9 points, she’ll most likely win. Also worth noting that this poll shows ME-02 as a Tossup, which I’m pretty sure it won’t be on election day.

So yeah, Lean R, but she can’t take anything for granted.

[Frenchrepublican]

Any firm is going to put out polls that don't perform well, and it is impossible to know which those will be until after the election. This is especially the case in the midterms, where turnout is much more unpredictable. My point is that if you look at PPP's full track record across multiple cycles, they stand up to scrutiny fairly well, much better than Gravis Marketing. If you look at their metrics on 538's pollster rankings, they have a very low mean reverted bias (which means they don't tend to miss in the same direction) and a relatively low average error. You chose to cite a handful of the 411 polls in the database, unsurprisingly the handful that were the worst. It paints an inaccurate picture to say the least.

Some Gravis polls are just ridiculous, yeah. But contrary to PPP Gravis doesn’t have a partisan bias while PPP almost always over estimate democrats.

[ElectionsGuy]

Why would PPP not poll Gideon but poll Trump vs every Democratic challenger? Seems like they know Gideon would be down to Collins and want to prop up the Democratic number, total nonsense. Stupid how PPP is supposedly this "gold standard" that is to be taken seriously.

[Frenchrepublican]

Why would PPP not poll Gideon but poll Trump vs every Democratic challenger? Seems like they know Gideon would be down to Collins and want to prop up the Democratic number, total nonsense. Stupid how PPP is supposedly this "gold standard" that is to be taken seriously.

Partisan
Progressive
Propaganda

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wish they just polled Gideon instead. I would love to say that this race finally moved into tossup territory, which it definitely still could, but this poll and its vagueness hasn't convinced me.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

PPP was great in 2012 but I don't recall how accurate they were in 2016. Did they drop the ball that year?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

Seems like they were exactly on point in Colorado/Nevada/Virginia, closely pegged Hillary's percentage in Michigan/Missouri/North Carolina/Ohio/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin but underestimated Trump's percentage.

Maine is more likely to be one of those states that underestimate's Trump's percentage in the polling based on the polling aggregate in 2016: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Maine

I'd argue that Collins is still the favorite based on this by a decent amount.