VA-Commonwealth University: Biden +8, Warren +4, Sanders +1

[Politician]

52-44 Biden
50-46 Warren
48-47 Sanders

Link to crosstabs: https://oppo.vcu.edu/media/oppo/Fall2019Release1.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

Lol, way too close, especially the Warren and Sanders numbers. Titanium D.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol #VAmorelikelytogoRedthanOhio

[MT Treasurer]

Lol #VAmorelikelytogoRedthanOhio

I didn’t know Politician commissioned polls now.

[henster]

Look deeper. 323 out of the 801 respondents were 65 and older, that's 40%.

[Podgy the Bear]

Lol, way too close, especially the Warren result. Titanium D.

That's why I don't want Warren as the nominee.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol, way too close, especially the Warren result. Titanium D.

That's why I don't want Warren as the nominee.

Don't worry, she is winning Ohio (because rural, white voters love Populism)

[TML]

Note that this poll had more respondents prefer a Democrat in the WH than a Republican there (49%-47%). That alone should probably tip this state to the Democrats.

[Xing]

Note that this poll had more respondents prefer a Democrat in the WH than a Republican there (49%-47%). That alone should probably tip this state to the Democrats.

Yeah, not to mention all of the Democrats winning by 6-9 points less than they win Independents by is suspicious to say the least.

[Gracile]

I think this sample skews a bit too old - over 75% of the respondents are 45 and older.

[NeverAgainsSock]

indyrep is right. impeachment backfired folks. Up here in NoVA, I saw a parade of white women marching down the street to the tune of Les Miserables singing:
♫ "Do you hear suburban moms ♫
Singing against impeachment
It is the music of a people
who won't vote for Dems again!
When talking about Ukraine
contrasts with kitchen table issues,
there is a life about to start
when November comes!
Will you join in our crusade?
Who will be strong and stand with me?
Beyond kid's soccer games
is there a ballot you long to see?
Then join in the fight
that will give you the right
♫ to vote against Bernie!" ♫

VA safe r.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

indyrep is right. impeachment backfired folks. Up here in NoVA, I saw a parade of white women marching down the street to the tune of Les Miserables singing:
♫ "Do you hear suburban moms ♫
Singing against impeachment
It is the music of a people
who won't vote for Dems again!
When talking about Ukraine
contrasts with kitchen table issues,
there is a life about to start
when November comes!
Will you join in our crusade?
Who will be strong and stand with me?
Beyond kid's soccer games
is there a ballot you long to see?
Then join in the fight
that will give you the right
♫ to vote against Bernie!" ♫

VA safe r.

Comstock will rise again!

[Gass3268]

Lol, way too close, especially the Warren result. Titanium D.

This poll has Warren winning independents by 14 points, but only winning by statewide by 1. The sample is messed up baaaaaaaaad.

[The Mikado]

indyrep is right. impeachment backfired folks. Up here in NoVA, I saw a parade of white women marching down the street to the tune of Les Miserables singing:
♫ "Do you hear suburban moms ♫
Singing against impeachment
It is the music of a people
who won't vote for Dems again!
When talking about Ukraine
contrasts with kitchen table issues,
there is a life about to start
when November comes!
Will you join in our crusade?
Who will be strong and stand with me?
Beyond kid's soccer games
is there a ballot you long to see?
Then join in the fight
that will give you the right
♫ to vote against Bernie!" ♫

VA safe r.

Dude, don't even attempt this if you don't know how to write lyrics that both scan and rhyme. Like, this is really, really embarrassing.

I'll do it for you, I'm so generous.

Do you hear Virginians sing, singing the songs of Dominionmen
It is the music of a people who will not vote blue again!
When the cause of Bobby Lee echoes the cause of Donald Trump
It is the movement that we see when our hatred thumps!

Will you join in a crusade, who will be strong and stand with me
At our march in Charlottesville is there a cause you want to see
Then join in the fight for white rights as we all stand with Lee!

Do you hear Virginians sing, singing the songs of Dominionmen!
It is the music of a people who will not vote blue again!
When the cause of Bobby Lee echoes the cause of Donald Trump
It is the movement that we see when our hatred thumps!

See, that's not hard.

[NeverAgainsSock]

indyrep is right. impeachment backfired folks. Up here in NoVA, I saw a parade of white women marching down the street to the tune of Les Miserables singing:
♫ "Do you hear suburban moms ♫
Singing against impeachment
It is the music of a people
who won't vote for Dems again!
When talking about Ukraine
contrasts with kitchen table issues,
there is a life about to start
when November comes!
Will you join in our crusade?
Who will be strong and stand with me?
Beyond kid's soccer games
is there a ballot you long to see?
Then join in the fight
that will give you the right
♫ to vote against Bernie!" ♫

VA safe r.

Dude, don't even attempt this if you don't know how to write lyrics that both scan and rhyme. Like, this is really, really embarrassing.

I'll do it for you, I'm so generous.

Do you hear Virginians sing, singing the songs of Dominionmen
It is the music of a people who will not vote blue again!
When the cause of Bobby Lee echoes the cause of Donald Trump
It is the movement that we see when our hatred thumps!

Will you join in a crusade, who will be strong and stand with me
At our march in Charlottesville is there a cause you want to see
Then join in the fight for white rights as we all stand with Lee!

Do you hear Virginians sing, singing the songs of Dominionmen!
It is the music of a people who will not vote blue again!
When the cause of Bobby Lee echoes the cause of Donald Trump
It is the movement that we see when our hatred thumps!

See, that's not hard.

Wow, it was a joke rather than an intentional parody. Good on you for putting that together and keeping the original meter. While I don't think I'm as bad as "The Jerk" (1979 movie where Steve Martin is born without rhythm), I don't have any background in music or rhythm so I don't know this stuff at all. If you want to give tips rather than cruelly berating me for no reason, feel free to PM me.

I don't know if this is some ironic "owning a dumba*s" type thing, but I think it's hard not to feel offended by you taking a joke and turning it into a pretty stinging rebuke of me. I'll not flood the thread anymore.

[LiberalDem19]

I think we're underestimating the number of Virginians that won't vote for a socialist

[TML]

I think we're underestimating the number of Virginians that won't vote for a socialist

Tell that to incumbent Del. Jackson Miller.

[Sir Mohamed]

That reminds me of the Gillespie +8 poll, lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As it looks now, IA, VA and WI will go Democratic, IA clinches the Presidential races at 272-266 and clinches the Senate: AZ; CO, IA, ME and NC with AK, GA and KY looking vulnerable as expanding the map.

[libertpaulian]

Likely D.

[Ebsy]

Another day, another junk university poll.

[LiberalDem19]

I think we're underestimating the number of Virginians that won't vote for a socialist

Tell that to incumbent Del. Jackson Miller.

IIRC, Lee Carter still underran Northam in that election by close to 9 points, which was how much the Dems won by statewide. So yes, it does actually matter.

Edit:
https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/2017-governor-results-house-district-1/

https://ballotpedia.org/Lee_Carter_(Virginia)

Northam won House District 50 by 16.5%, and Carter won by 9%. So that's a 7.5% difference in a state that went by 9%, so extrapolating a uniform swing (although there will be underpformances and overperformances), if Carter had been the statewide candidate, he would have won by 1.5%.

[henster]

I think we're underestimating the number of Virginians that won't vote for a socialist

Tell that to incumbent Del. Jackson Miller.

IIRC, Lee Carter still underran Northam in that election by close to 9 points, which was how much the Dems won by statewide. So yes, it does actually matter.

Edit:
https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/2017-governor-results-house-district-1/

https://ballotpedia.org/Lee_Carter_(Virginia)

Northam won House District 50 by 16.5%, and Carter won by 9%. So that's a 7.5% difference in a state that went by 9%, so extrapolating a uniform swing (although there will be underpformances and overperformances), if Carter had been the statewide candidate, he would have won by 1.5%.

Eh I doubt many people even knew Carter was an a full on DSA, most people don't pay attention to delegate races and just vote by letter next to their name. He was just a wave baby who rode Northam's coattails, his underperformace is because he was running against a long time incumbent.

[President Johnson]

Not buying that Liz and Bernie are actually struggling, but let's be honest: Joe Biden is the best fit for this state. He could win by ten points, easily. NoVa moderate suburbanites are fed up with Trump and want Uncle Joe.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think we're underestimating the number of Virginians that won't vote for a socialist

Tell that to incumbent Del. Jackson Miller.

IIRC, Lee Carter still underran Northam in that election by close to 9 points, which was how much the Dems won by statewide. So yes, it does actually matter.

Edit:
https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/2017-governor-results-house-district-1/

https://ballotpedia.org/Lee_Carter_(Virginia)

Northam won House District 50 by 16.5%, and Carter won by 9%. So that's a 7.5% difference in a state that went by 9%, so extrapolating a uniform swing (although there will be underpformances and overperformances), if Carter had been the statewide candidate, he would have won by 1.5%.

He was also outspent 100-1 and was running against a ten year Republican incumbent. He didn’t underperform Northam relative to other Democratic House of Delegates challengers at all. Look at Danica Rome, Kelly Fowler, Dawn Adams, Debra Rodman. They all ran pretty far behind Northam