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December 06, 2019, 11:48:52 pm
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  11/3/1984, 3 days before election night, here's a glimpse of the future...
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Author Topic: 11/3/1984, 3 days before election night, here's a glimpse of the future...  (Read 565 times)
Plankton5165
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« on: October 15, 2019, 07:41:54 pm »

You watch lots of Mondale pro videos, such as Mondale wanting to draw a line in the heavens in space, and wanting to help the realistic, common, regular workers.

You also get a glimpse of some of the results that will happen in election night:
DC - 85.38% Mondale, 13.73% Reagan
Pennsylvania - 45.99% Mondale, 53.34% Reagan
Iowa - 45.89% Mondale, 53.27% Reagan
Wisconsin - 45.02% Mondale, 54.19% Reagan
Oregon - 43.74% Mondale, 55.91% Reagan
Illinois - 43.30% Mondale, 56.17% Reagan
California - 41.27% Mondale, 57.51% Reagan
Ohio - 40.14% Mondale, 58.90% Reagan

What would you guess the election map will look like?
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2019, 07:46:50 pm »




Not much difference actually
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2019, 09:00:39 pm »


Still does better than McGovern, and solidly ends the debate once and for all who won in the bigger landslide between Nixon and Reagan
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2019, 10:05:35 pm »


Still does better than McGovern, and solidly ends the debate once and for all who won in the bigger landslide between Nixon and Reagan

 How would this be a bigger landslide when in this scenario Mondale gets 26 electoral votes to McGovern's 17? The popular vote difference was too great for Reagan's to be bigger overall anyway.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2019, 10:40:36 pm »


Still does better than McGovern, and solidly ends the debate once and for all who won in the bigger landslide between Nixon and Reagan

 How would this be a bigger landslide when in this scenario Mondale gets 26 electoral votes to McGovern's 17?

That is exactly what I meant. People debate endlessly if Reagan or Nixon won the bigger landslide in real life. This would put the debate to rest that it was Nixon and there would be no debates on any forums and stuff.
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2019, 11:45:14 pm »


Still does better than McGovern, and solidly ends the debate once and for all who won in the bigger landslide between Nixon and Reagan

 How would this be a bigger landslide when in this scenario Mondale gets 26 electoral votes to McGovern's 17?

That is exactly what I meant. People debate endlessly if Reagan or Nixon won the bigger landslide in real life. This would put the debate to rest that it was Nixon and there would be no debates on any forums and stuff.
My mistake. I misread your initial comment. My apologies.
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mathstatman
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2019, 06:24:21 pm »

You watch lots of Mondale pro videos, such as Mondale wanting to draw a line in the heavens in space, and wanting to help the realistic, common, regular workers.

You also get a glimpse of some of the results that will happen in election night:
DC - 85.38% Mondale, 13.73% Reagan
Pennsylvania - 45.99% Mondale, 53.34% Reagan
Iowa - 45.89% Mondale, 53.27% Reagan
Wisconsin - 45.02% Mondale, 54.19% Reagan
Oregon - 43.74% Mondale, 55.91% Reagan
Illinois - 43.30% Mondale, 56.17% Reagan
California - 41.27% Mondale, 57.51% Reagan
Ohio - 40.14% Mondale, 58.90% Reagan

What would you guess the election map will look like?
Interesting post. I was there!

I had just turned 18 and was living in Cambridge, MA as an MIT freshman. I had already voted absentee in MI (I split my vote between Reagan and Sen. Carl Levin (D)) (as Mondale said after the election, people wanted Reagan, but also wanted to surround him a little bit)

The "buzz" in much of Cambridge was that if Reagan was re-elected, a nuclear war with the USSR was a near certainty. So, my sense was shaped by my living in Cambridge. I thought it was a near certainty that Mondale would win MA, and that he probably would prevail in RI and possibly MD. So, he would get 26, 30, or maybe even 40 EVs, and get about 43% of the vote nationally.

I was definitely surprised Mondale lost MA (he won Cambridge 76.2-23.4 after Carter won it in 1980 by 60.8-19.9). I had heard young voters were switching to Reagan, but was surprised at the national magnitude of the Reagan vote, and that Macomb, MI gave Reagan an even greater share of the vote (66.2%) than Nixon in 1972 (62.7%).
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2019, 06:35:02 pm »

You watch lots of Mondale pro videos, such as Mondale wanting to draw a line in the heavens in space, and wanting to help the realistic, common, regular workers.

You also get a glimpse of some of the results that will happen in election night:
DC - 85.38% Mondale, 13.73% Reagan
Pennsylvania - 45.99% Mondale, 53.34% Reagan
Iowa - 45.89% Mondale, 53.27% Reagan
Wisconsin - 45.02% Mondale, 54.19% Reagan
Oregon - 43.74% Mondale, 55.91% Reagan
Illinois - 43.30% Mondale, 56.17% Reagan
California - 41.27% Mondale, 57.51% Reagan
Ohio - 40.14% Mondale, 58.90% Reagan

What would you guess the election map will look like?
Interesting post. I was there!

I had just turned 18 and was living in Cambridge, MA as an MIT freshman. I had already voted absentee in MI (I split my vote between Reagan and Sen. Carl Levin (D)) (as Mondale said after the election, people wanted Reagan, but also wanted to surround him a little bit)

The "buzz" in much of Cambridge was that if Reagan was re-elected, a nuclear war with the USSR was a near certainty. So, my sense was shaped by my living in Cambridge. I thought it was a near certainty that Mondale would win MA, and that he probably would prevail in RI and possibly MD. So, he would get 26, 30, or maybe even 40 EVs, and get about 43% of the vote nationally.

I was definitely surprised Mondale lost MA (he won Cambridge 76.2-23.4 after Carter won it in 1980 by 60.8-19.9). I had heard young voters were switching to Reagan, but was surprised at the national magnitude of the Reagan vote, and that Macomb, MI gave Reagan an even greater share of the vote (66.2%) than Nixon in 1972 (62.7%).

I wish we had state polling back then. If so, I wonder by how much Reagan outperformed consensus. Talking to my dad, he mentioned that in 1980 he was floored at Reagan's margin of victory. He thought Reagan would win the national PV by 2-3 points and no more than 350 electoral votes. He had Carter winning ME, VT, MA, NY, and the Southern states except VA, FL, TX.
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mathstatman
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« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2019, 06:24:49 am »

You watch lots of Mondale pro videos, such as Mondale wanting to draw a line in the heavens in space, and wanting to help the realistic, common, regular workers.

You also get a glimpse of some of the results that will happen in election night:
DC - 85.38% Mondale, 13.73% Reagan
Pennsylvania - 45.99% Mondale, 53.34% Reagan
Iowa - 45.89% Mondale, 53.27% Reagan
Wisconsin - 45.02% Mondale, 54.19% Reagan
Oregon - 43.74% Mondale, 55.91% Reagan
Illinois - 43.30% Mondale, 56.17% Reagan
California - 41.27% Mondale, 57.51% Reagan
Ohio - 40.14% Mondale, 58.90% Reagan

What would you guess the election map will look like?
Interesting post. I was there!

I had just turned 18 and was living in Cambridge, MA as an MIT freshman. I had already voted absentee in MI (I split my vote between Reagan and Sen. Carl Levin (D)) (as Mondale said after the election, people wanted Reagan, but also wanted to surround him a little bit)

The "buzz" in much of Cambridge was that if Reagan was re-elected, a nuclear war with the USSR was a near certainty. So, my sense was shaped by my living in Cambridge. I thought it was a near certainty that Mondale would win MA, and that he probably would prevail in RI and possibly MD. So, he would get 26, 30, or maybe even 40 EVs, and get about 43% of the vote nationally.

I was definitely surprised Mondale lost MA (he won Cambridge 76.2-23.4 after Carter won it in 1980 by 60.8-19.9). I had heard young voters were switching to Reagan, but was surprised at the national magnitude of the Reagan vote, and that Macomb, MI gave Reagan an even greater share of the vote (66.2%) than Nixon in 1972 (62.7%).

I wish we had state polling back then. If so, I wonder by how much Reagan outperformed consensus. Talking to my dad, he mentioned that in 1980 he was floored at Reagan's margin of victory. He thought Reagan would win the national PV by 2-3 points and no more than 350 electoral votes. He had Carter winning ME, VT, MA, NY, and the Southern states except VA, FL, TX.
I too was surprised by the 1980 margin. One 1980 poll quoted by Andy Rooney of 60 Minutes found Carter the clear favorite among Evangelicals (!). I remember at age 14 watching the returns with my Mom, who had voted for Carter, and her grim face as state after state went to Reagan. The 1984 polls, on the other hand, for the most part were spot-on. One poll taken a few days before the elections showed Reagan leading in 47 states and Mondale leading in none. I'm sure my pro-Mondale rose colored glasses had to do with personal anecdotes as well as my living in Cambridge.
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