KY-Mason Dixon: Dead heat

[Frenchrepublican]

There's a huge "Republicans for Beshear" page on Facebook. If Bevin is so popular like everyone claims, why is there no "Democrats for Bevin" page?

Lol. A page liked by 900 persons ?? That’s your proof that KY-Gov will flip ?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Lol. A page liked by 900 persons ?? That’s your proof that KY-Gov will flip ?

It's 900 more than the "Democrats for Bevin" page has.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol. A page liked by 900 persons ?? That’s your proof that KY-Gov will flip ?

It's 900 more than the "Democrats for Bevin" page has.

I would love to see your face when Bevin will be re-elected by at least 6 points in two weeks. By the way there are probably more D registered voters who are crossing over for Bevin than the contrary

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol. A page liked by 900 persons ?? That’s your proof that KY-Gov will flip ?

It's 900 more than the "Democrats for Bevin" page has.

I would love to see your face when Bevin will be re-elected by at least 6 points in two weeks. By the way there are probably more D registered voters who are crossing over for Bevin than the contrary

Only six? That’s way too generous to Beshear

[ElectionsGuy]

Lol. A page liked by 900 persons ?? That’s your proof that KY-Gov will flip ?

It's 900 more than the "Democrats for Bevin" page has.

I would love to see your face when Bevin will be re-elected by at least 6 points in two weeks. By the way there are probably more D registered voters who are crossing over for Bevin than the contrary

Right. Unlike #RepublicansforBeshear, they privately go out and vote without telling anybody, instead of proudly displaying so on Facebook.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I would love to see your face when Bevin will be re-elected by at least 6 points in two weeks. By the way there are probably more D registered voters who are crossing over for Bevin than the contrary

This very poll said Beshear had a big lead among independents.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Right. Unlike #RepublicansforBeshear, they privately go out and vote without telling anybody, instead of proudly displaying so on Facebook.

If I was for Bevin, I'd be pretty ashamed of it too.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol. A page liked by 900 persons ?? That’s your proof that KY-Gov will flip ?

It's 900 more than the "Democrats for Bevin" page has.

I would love to see your face when Bevin will be re-elected by at least 6 points in two weeks. By the way there are probably more D registered voters who are crossing over for Bevin than the contrary

Only six? That’s way too generous to Beshear

 I would be surprised if he were to lose, but I would be surprised too if he were to win by double digits, he is still one of the most unpopular governor in the country

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol. A page liked by 900 persons ?? That’s your proof that KY-Gov will flip ?

It's 900 more than the "Democrats for Bevin" page has.

I would love to see your face when Bevin will be re-elected by at least 6 points in two weeks. By the way there are probably more D registered voters who are crossing over for Bevin than the contrary

Only six? That’s way too generous to Beshear

 I would be surprised if he were to lose, but I would be surprised too if he were to win by double digits, he is still one of the most unpopular governor in the country

He is unpopular which is why he’ll do a lot worse than trump, but still easily win. Beshear needs like 25% of Trump supporters to get close. He’ll be lucky to get 15%

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol. A page liked by 900 persons ?? That’s your proof that KY-Gov will flip ?

It's 900 more than the "Democrats for Bevin" page has.

I would love to see your face when Bevin will be re-elected by at least 6 points in two weeks. By the way there are probably more D registered voters who are crossing over for Bevin than the contrary

Only six? That’s way too generous to Beshear

 I would be surprised if he were to lose, but I would be surprised too if he were to win by double digits, he is still one of the most unpopular governor in the country

He is unpopular which is why he’ll do a lot worse than trump, but still easily win. Beshear needs like 25% of Trump supporters to get close. He’ll be lucky to get 15%

Yeah, sure, Bevin will likely prevail, but it won’t be a landslide victory either.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol. A page liked by 900 persons ?? That’s your proof that KY-Gov will flip ?

It's 900 more than the "Democrats for Bevin" page has.

I would love to see your face when Bevin will be re-elected by at least 6 points in two weeks. By the way there are probably more D registered voters who are crossing over for Bevin than the contrary

Only six? That’s way too generous to Beshear

 I would be surprised if he were to lose, but I would be surprised too if he were to win by double digits, he is still one of the most unpopular governor in the country

He is unpopular which is why he’ll do a lot worse than trump, but still easily win. Beshear needs like 25% of Trump supporters to get close. He’ll be lucky to get 15%

Yeah, sure, Bevin will likely prevail, but it won’t be a landslide victory either.

If he only gets 15% of Trump supporters that puts his support in the low 40’s. Which is my guess for what Beshear will get

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol. A page liked by 900 persons ?? That’s your proof that KY-Gov will flip ?

It's 900 more than the "Democrats for Bevin" page has.

I would love to see your face when Bevin will be re-elected by at least 6 points in two weeks. By the way there are probably more D registered voters who are crossing over for Bevin than the contrary

Only six? That’s way too generous to Beshear

 I would be surprised if he were to lose, but I would be surprised too if he were to win by double digits, he is still one of the most unpopular governor in the country

He is unpopular which is why he’ll do a lot worse than trump, but still easily win. Beshear needs like 25% of Trump supporters to get close. He’ll be lucky to get 15%

Yeah, sure, Bevin will likely prevail, but it won’t be a landslide victory either.

If he only gets 15% of Trump supporters that puts his support in the low 40’s. Which is my guess for what Beshear will get

 I think Bevin will win 51/43

[Xing]

Bevin doesn't need a single vote from Kentucky voters who still consider themselves Democrats. That doesn't count those who are technically still registered as Democrats but consider themselves Republicans and would rather get arrested and thrown in prison than vote for a Democrat. So of course "Democrats for Bevin" isn't a thing, but he doesn't need it to be.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bevin doesn't need a single vote from Kentucky voters who still consider themselves Democrats. That doesn't count those who are technically still registered as Democrats but consider themselves Republicans and would rather get arrested and thrown in prison than vote for a Democrat. So of course "Democrats for Bevin" isn't a thing, but he doesn't need it to be.

He needs for independents to not vote against him.

[IceSpear]

Bevin doesn't need a single vote from Kentucky voters who still consider themselves Democrats. That doesn't count those who are technically still registered as Democrats but consider themselves Republicans and would rather get arrested and thrown in prison than vote for a Democrat. So of course "Democrats for Bevin" isn't a thing, but he doesn't need it to be.

He needs for independents to not vote against him.

No he doesn't.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bevin doesn't need a single vote from Kentucky voters who still consider themselves Democrats. That doesn't count those who are technically still registered as Democrats but consider themselves Republicans and would rather get arrested and thrown in prison than vote for a Democrat. So of course "Democrats for Bevin" isn't a thing, but he doesn't need it to be.

He needs for independents to not vote against him.

No he doesn't.

He does.

[Tender Branson]

My official endorsement:




Beshear/Coleman for Governor.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

My official endorsement:
...
Beshear/Coleman for Governor.

Gee, even Ray Charles could've seen that coming.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Something to consider: this is an off-off year election and it's far from clear that turnout dynamics will favor Republicans, as they so evidently did in 2015. The anti-Bevin crowd in Kentucky would like him to be hung from a post and every teacher in the state will be voting - do you feel confident that Trump can rustle up a bunch of coal dust blown hillbillies to vote for Bevin? It's possible, especially in a politically charged period, but it's also possible that Bevin is crushed because turnout is low.

I think this race is a tossup.

huh look who was right about this

[Xing]

Looks like Mason Dixon is the real gold standard.

[Oryxslayer]

Except Bevin's approval in this poll didn't match with what we knew from everywhere else. This poll was bad just like the others, we needed more data overall from KY with just more polls. Everyone had problems that would just average out if we had more points, particularly recent points to compare  to.

[ElectionsGuy]

Something to consider: this is an off-off year election and it's far from clear that turnout dynamics will favor Republicans, as they so evidently did in 2015. The anti-Bevin crowd in Kentucky would like him to be hung from a post and every teacher in the state will be voting - do you feel confident that Trump can rustle up a bunch of coal dust blown hillbillies to vote for Bevin? It's possible, especially in a politically charged period, but it's also possible that Bevin is crushed because turnout is low.

I think this race is a tossup.

huh look who was right about this

Turnout was not low, it was very high for an off-year and Beshear won due to persuading a large chunk of voters that will vote for Trump/McConnell in 2020 and that voted R for the other statewide offices. There's nothing to really brag about here.

[Devout Centrist]

Something to consider: this is an off-off year election and it's far from clear that turnout dynamics will favor Republicans, as they so evidently did in 2015. The anti-Bevin crowd in Kentucky would like him to be hung from a post and every teacher in the state will be voting - do you feel confident that Trump can rustle up a bunch of coal dust blown hillbillies to vote for Bevin? It's possible, especially in a politically charged period, but it's also possible that Bevin is crushed because turnout is low.

I think this race is a tossup.

DFB I'm sorry I doubted you.

[2016]

Huh,
Mason-Dixon nailed it!

[Gone to Carolina]

Huh,
Mason-Dixon nailed it!

Yeah they really did well, even the crosstabs were near dead on.

Mason-Dixon Polling by Region v. Actual Results by Region

Louisville Metro -
- Mason-Dixon: Beshear +23
- Actual: Beshear +23.52

Lexington/Blue Grass -
- Mason-Dixon: Beshear +14
- Actual: Beshear +10.74

Northern KY -
- Mason-Dixon: Bevin +2
- Actual: Bevin +5.66

Eastern KY -
- Mason-Dixon: Bevin +18
- Actual: Bevin +21.66

Western KY -
- Mason-Dixon: Bevin +15
- Actual: Bevin +13.98