The War remains popular for much longer than it did in OTL. It wouldnt change the fact that Bush still competely mishandled the aftermath of the invasion but still the war would remain popular till around 2007 at the very least and 2011 at the very latest. This is what I think happens
2004:Presidential:
Bush/Cheney 356 53%
Kerry/Edwards 182 46%
Bush easily wins the election, and its quite possible even NJ could flip in this scenario. Kerry also would only win CA by around 5-6 points maybe less
Senate:
Republicans Gain: All the states they gained in OTL
Dems Gain: Just IL
So Senate would finish at 56 Republicans to 44 Democrats
House:
Republicans : 240
Democrats: 195
2006:Senate:
Republicans Gain: NJ
Democrats Gain: PA, RI, OH
So Senate Ends up at Republicans 54 to Democrats 46
House:
Republicans: 225
Democrats: 210
Republicans narrowly keep the house
2008: Presidential:
Clinton/Bayh 315 51.5%
McCain/Romney 223 48.5%
Senate:
Democrats Gain : CO, NM, VA, NC, NH
Republicans Gain: Nothing
Democrats take control of Senate with a 51-49 majority
House :
Democrats : 232
Republicans: 203
Democrats take control of House as well with a gain of 22 seats