If Saddam Hussein really had WMDs (user search)
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April 19, 2024, 12:24:37 AM
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  If Saddam Hussein really had WMDs (search mode)
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Author Topic: If Saddam Hussein really had WMDs  (Read 1863 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,676


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« on: October 17, 2019, 12:08:02 AM »

The War remains popular for much longer than it did in OTL. It wouldnt change the fact that Bush still competely mishandled the aftermath of the invasion but still the war would remain popular till around 2007 at the very least and 2011 at the very latest. This is what I think happens


2004:

Presidential:




Bush/Cheney 356 53%
Kerry/Edwards 182 46%

Bush easily wins the election, and its quite possible even NJ could flip in this scenario. Kerry also would only win CA by around 5-6 points maybe less



Senate:

Republicans Gain: All the states they gained in OTL
Dems Gain: Just IL


So Senate would finish at 56 Republicans to 44 Democrats


House:

Republicans : 240
Democrats:  195



2006:

Senate:

Republicans Gain: NJ
Democrats Gain: PA, RI, OH

So Senate Ends up at Republicans 54 to Democrats 46


House:

Republicans: 225
Democrats: 210

Republicans narrowly keep the house



2008:


Presidential:



Clinton/Bayh 315 51.5%
McCain/Romney 223 48.5%


Senate:

Democrats Gain : CO, NM, VA, NC, NH
Republicans Gain: Nothing

Democrats take control of Senate with a 51-49 majority


House :

Democrats : 232
Republicans: 203

Democrats take control of House as well with a gain of 22 seats
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,676


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2019, 12:31:12 AM »

If the Iraq War remains highly popular in 2004, I doubt Kerry gets the nomination.  He got it in large part because it was thought he could successfully counter Bush on defense issues. If Dems have no hope of doing that, someone else, perhaps Edwards, likely gets the nomination.

Iraq was popular until April 2004 and by then Kerry had already won the nomination
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