Katie Hill resigning from office

[Tekken_Guy]

Jess Phoenix OUT:

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1188610133707894785

Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D) is considering a run here:

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1188599178559029250

She’s definitely a good fit here. Only wild card left is Bryan Caforio, but he could easily run for the Assembly seat she would be vacating.

[Tekken_Guy]

Caforio would be the logical successor, but I understand that running a man here would be poor optics after the scandal.

[Tekken_Guy]

CA SOS Alex Padilla is considering jumping in:

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1188636948627415040

Absolutely ****ing not.

Christy Smith, from what I've seen, seems to be a solid progressive who would represent in a similar (if not more progressive) way to Hill. She's especially strong wrt education.

Unfortunately, the DC establishment (Peace Be Unto Them), in their Enlightened Wisdom, will crown Padilla king if he runs, because resumes mean more than ideology or competence.

From what I know the DCCC seem to want Smith too.

[Tekken_Guy]

I just wanted to say, that as political scandals go, this is the first time where I felt 100% sympathetic to the politician.

I mean, the ethical concern with the relationship with the campaign staffer is real, but a fine or reprimand would have been sufficient. Her career was destroyed by an abusive ex.

He should go to prison, and she should run again in a couple years.

I believe she was forced out by Democratic leadership out of fear the seat could flip back to the GOP if she ran again.

[Tekken_Guy]

Newsom definitely schedules for 3/3. No doubt about it

Smith should resign ASAP so the AD38 special can also be held on that day.

[Tekken_Guy]

IMO she was forced out by DCCC leadership because they became worried she’d lose if she ran again. She probably would have still won anyway but by a rather narrow margin. She’s might’ve dragged Cisneros and Rouda down, though. That’s probably why she had to go.

[Tekken_Guy]

Papadopoulos has a campaign site. He's running. He's the type of candidate that will get just enough of the GOP vote to win a second slot in the runoff, but then is DOA because he can't unite the types of voters the GOP would need in this seat. Especially if Newsom can get this to coencide with the Dem primary.

So in summary, it's further proof the California GOP are in the depths of a death spiral.

If someone reaches 50% there will be no runoff.

[Tekken_Guy]

Papadopoulos has a campaign site. He's running. He's the type of candidate that will get just enough of the GOP vote to win a second slot in the runoff, but then is DOA because he can't unite the types of voters the GOP would need in this seat. Especially if Newsom can get this to coencide with the Dem primary.

So in summary, it's further proof the California GOP are in the depths of a death spiral.

If someone reaches 50% there will be no runoff.

You think that Smith will be the only notable Democrat to run?

Yes. Phoenix said no. Caforio failed twice, plus he no longer lives in the district. There are no other Democratic state legislators in the district other than Henry Stern, and he lives too far away. The LA County Commission seat is also still R-held, because it hasn’t been up since 2016. And at the end of the day, I don’t think Padilla will get in.