2019-2020 College Basketball Discussion and Pick 'em Thread

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

DePaul never makes it easy!! Finish non-conference play at 12-1. The 7-11 conference forecast would likely leave them just off the bubble without 2 BET wins. I think they need 8, but Iowa, TTU, and Minnesota wins all keep looking better.

St. John's is even more surprising with the lead over Arizona at the half. Could be yet another undefeated Saturday for the Big East which is very difficult to believe. I don't even mind not taking this one though when Zona inevitably makes it a game.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Virginia is absolutely garbage (compared to the standard they have set for themselves). I don't see how they could be considered a top 25 team when there is no talent on the roster, just a system defense. I had them 27th entering the day. They'll be fine by virtue of a soft conference. Highly reminiscent of last year's Villanova.

I will now accept my accolades. Losing at JPJ? OUCH!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Will San Diego State jump to #1 next week?

Warren Nolan took until this late hour to publish the new official NET rankings. San Diego State did take the top spot there, and it wasn't particularly close since Kansas tumbled to #7. Only the failed media are keeping San Diego State out of the top 5  since analytics love them and the results validate it.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Saturday, December 28th
Central Michigan @ Purdue – 12pm – BTN
Wisconsin @ Tennessee – 1:30pm – CBS - This weeks "yikes" game following IU-ND last week.
Northeastern @ Towson – 2pm
Toledo @ Bradley – 2pm – ESPN+
Eastern Michigan @ UNLV – 3pm
#3 Louisville @ #19 Kentucky – 3:45pm – CBS
FIU @ Minnesota – 4pm – BTN
Belmont @ Western Kentucky – 7:30pm - game of the weekend! Why can't we watch!
Oral Roberts @ BYU – 9pm
Pacific @ UC-Irvine – 10pm

Sunday, December 29th
#22 WVU vs #2 Ohio State – 12pm – FS1
Liberty @ LSU – 1:30pm – SECN
Lafayette @ Sacred Heart – 2pm
Iona @ Colorado – 2pm – Pac-12
Duquesne vs. Marshall – 2:30pm
#5 Kansas @ Stanford – 3pm – ABC
Sam Houston State @ Rice – 3pm - who could predict which version of these teams show up?!
App State @ NC State – 4pm
Loyola (MD) @ VCU – 5pm
FAU @ USF – 5pm – ESPN3
SDSU @ Nebraska-Omaha – 5:30pm – ESPN+
Arkansas @ Indiana – 6pm – BTN
Tulsa @ Kansas State – 6pm – ESPN+
Harvard @ Cal – 6pm – Pac-12
Richmond @ Alabama – 6:30pm – SECN

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Friday, January 3rd
Wisconsin @ #5 Ohio State – 6pm
Toledo @ Ball State – 6pm
UCF @ Houston – 6pm
Rutgers @ Nebraska – 7pm
Georgetown @ Seton Hall – 8pm
Kent St. @ Bowling Green – 8pm
Temple @ Tulsa – 8pm

Saturday, January 4th
Oklahoma State @ #22 Texas Tech – 11am
LSU @ Tennessee – 11am
NC State @ Clemson – 11am
#18 Florida State @ #7 Louisville – 1pm
#10 Villanova @ Marquette – 1pm
#23 Iowa vs. #21 Penn State – 1pm
#8 Auburn @ Miss St. – 3pm
#16 WVU @ #3 Kansas – 3pm
#13 San Diego State @ Utah State – 9pm

Sunday, January 5th
Richmond @ Rhode Island – 11am
VCU @ GMU – 11am
#12 Michigan @ #14 Michigan State – 12:30pm
Davidson @ Duquesne – 1pm
St. John’s @ Xavier – 3:30pm
Oregon State @ Colorado – 5pm
Northwestern @ Minnesota – 6:30pm
Purdue @ Illinois – 7pm
USC @ Washington – 9pm

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I think Villanova will more likely lose to Creighton than Marquette in their next two. Should be 3 point dogs in both, but if we steal one, Marquette looks easier to shut down. Creighton has better guards and a much better home court advantage. Of course, we could just lose both! I've never loved the Big East more than this season. Every game is close to a toss-up.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

So, Jay Wright has elected the option to get swept on this road trip The ticky tack first half officiating prevented this from being an interesting game by preventing Saddiq Bey, Markus Howard and Sacar Anim from playing large chunks of this game. And when all three went out, they finally decided to let the game be free flowing and enjoyable! The only problem is that left us without many offensive weapons, and Marquette's stellar defense turned it into no offense - great effort! Jay Wright better realize soon that Collin Gillespie is not a starting point guard for any respectable team and make Justin Moore the starter. Gillespie's defense will not hold up against serious competition.

DePaul's first two Big East games have been by far had the highest quality of play of the first nine Big East games. Devastating to come out of this 0-2. Absolutely heartbreaking today. They'll start winning soon, but I am getting concerned. The next four game stretch is brutal, so if they can't start it with a win in Madison Square Garden, things may start sinking for such a talented team and fast.

Power Rankings
Tier 1
1. Butler - They have a lot to learn about finishing, but I went into the conference season thinking they were a tad overrated. That is no longer the case. This team could win 13-14 games and deserves to be in the Final Four discussion. Blech.
2. Seton Hall - To think they are playing without MAMU! I think the defense is sneakily even better than Butler (and that's Butler's calling card!) The offense is a bit too chaotic.
Tier 2
3. Creighton - Clearly the best (only?) offense in the conference. I question whether they can win away from Omaha limiting their potential to perhaps an 11-7 team.
Tier 3
4. DePaul - I have some depth concerns, and I think they will struggle against very structured and coached teams like Villanova, Butler and perhaps Xavier whether there is a talent advantage or not. The chaotic style is fun but not build to win championships.
5. Providence - I went into the year thinking they had the most talent and most veteran talent. I don't know why it took so long to finally begin to show it - I thought having transfers practicing for a year would make for a smooth transition. Their shooting percentage has still been woeful, but they look a bit faster to the ball showing a sense of urgency...finally. You don't know exactly who is going to beat you on any given night, but Diallo, Duke and Watson all need more consistency if this team wants to finish in the top half.
6. Villanova - No defense whatsoever. No senior leaders. Only Swider, Bey and Moore are natural shooting threats. Very impressed with development of Samuels but he doesn't fit into the offense. Winning largely depends on the other team taking bad, quick shots.
7. Marquette - Very average on aggregate at just about everything. They can defend against smaller teams, and the offense is even streakier and focused on a single player than Seton Hall.
8. Xavier - The next week is going to be very telling given that they will have #2 and #3 in Cintas. You have to think they need to take at least one to build some semblance of a resume. The bench is a little thin, but they seem like they will grind out more than a few low-scoring games.
Tier 4
9. St. John's - Long Jumper Figueroa is making strides without Shamorie Ponds there - and he actually plays elite defense unlike the prior focal point of the team! I am still uncertain if this team could be for real or if they can beat any Big East team on the road - we'll find out in the next four days! The schedule starts easy, yet they could easily go 1-8/2-7 on the easier half despite taking the top team to the wire.
10. Georgetown - I was so optimistic. Yurtseven should be first team All Conference. Patrick Ewing keeps getting elite big men and no adequate support for them. Very sad. And now the Oklahoma State road win might mean almost nothing. Should've beat Duke. Shoulda, coulda, woulda had a win worth talking about.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

San Diego State is favored by at least 10 in their next 13 games. They will only be favored by 4 in their season finale in Reno.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Friday, January 10th
Penn @ Princeton – 5pm – ESPNU
#15 Maryland @ #23 Iowa – 7pm – FS1
#11 Butler @ Providence – 9pm – FS1

Saturday, January 11th
#11 Ohio State @ Indiana – 12pm – FOX
Alabama @ #14 Kentucky – 12pm – ESPN
Georgetown @ #16 Villanova – 12pm – FS1
DePaul @ St. John’s – 12pm
Cincinnati @ UCF – 12pm – ESPN2
#4 Baylor @ #3 Kansas – 1pm – CBS
#13 Louisville @ Notre Dame – 2pm – ESPN
Charleston @ William & Mary – 2pm
Oklahoma State @ TCU – 2pm – ESPN2
Creighton @ Xavier – 2pm – FOX
NC State @ Virginia Tech – 2pm – ACCNX
Houston @ Tulsa – 4pm – ESPN2
Clemson @ UNC – 4:30pm – ACCNX
Arkansas @ Ole Miss – 6pm – SECN
Florida @ Missouri – 8:30pm – SECN

Sunday, January 12th
#8 Michigan State @ Purdue – 12pm – CBS
#23 Wichita St @ UConn – 12pm – CBSSN
#19 Michigan @ Minnesota – 1pm – BTN
Monmouth @ Quinnipiac – 2pm – ESPN3
#21 Memphis @ USF – 4pm – ESPN2
Utah @ #25 Colorado – 6pm – ESPNU
#24 Arizona @ Oregon State – 10pm – FS1

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I hate to second guess myself (because I usually end up regretting it), but I'm changing my pick in Ohio State-Indiana to Indiana.

Nice change of heart! So the home court thing works for bad Big Ten teams too!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

DePaul really has no choice but to wring off three consecutive home wins against Butler, Creighton and St. Johns. Two will keep them in it, but it would be hard to see more than 7 conference wins. Three absolutely heartbreaks already.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It's time to accept that, one year after making history as the first SEC team in more than half a century to go winless in conference, we're going to do just that again.

The SEC losing streak stands at 23 and counting, back to the 2018 SEC Tournament.

LOL! You are actually favoured in the final game of the season by 0.1 vs. South Carolina! Apparently 3% chance of one win or less. 0-18 would be an incredible accomplishment given the (terrible) quality of the SEC this year. You have four home opportunities against terrible teams to avoid it.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Friday, January 17th
Wisconsin @ #8 Michigan State – 6pm – FS1
#15 Dayton @ Saint Louis – 6pm – ESPN2
Furman @ Wofford – 6pm – ESPNU
#19 Michigan @ Iowa – 8pm – FS1

Saturday, January 18th
#4 Baylor @ Oklahoma State – 11am
#11 Ohio State @ #20 Penn State – 11am
Seton Hall @ St. John’s – 11am – FOX
#10 Florida State @ Miami – 12pm – ACCN
#5 Auburn @ Florida – 12:30pm – CBS
TCU @ Oklahoma – 1pm – ESPN+
Marquette @ Georgetown – 1pm – FS1
#25 Colorado @ #24 Arizona – 1:30pm
Richmond @ George Mason – 1:30pm
#9 Oregon @ Washington – 2:45pm – CBS
#14 Kentucky @ Arkansas – 3pm – ESPN
Houston @ #23 Wichita State – 3pm
North Texas @ Louisiana Tech – 4pm – ESPN+
#13 Louisville @ #2 Duke – 5pm – ESPN
Northern Iowa @ Bradley – 5pm
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt – 5pm – SECN
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina – 6pm – ESPN+
BYU @ #1 Gonzaga – 9pm – ESPN2
Utah State @ Boise State – 9pm – ESPNU

Sunday, January 19th
Minnesota @ Rutgers – 12pm – BTN
Boston College @ Wake Forest – 5pm – ACCN

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Oklahoma misses a wide open 3 that would have taken down #1 Baylor with a few seconds left .

Oklahoma's Q1 record is going to look dreadful by season end at this rate. Huge missed opportunity. I'm not sure a respectable Q2 record will make up for 10-12 Q1 losses, but Mississippi State is going to be a must-win.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Friday, January 24th
Kent State @ Buffalo – 5:30pm – CBSSN
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State – 8pm  – ESPNU

Saturday, January 25th
Miami @ UNC – 11am
#9 Villanova @ Providence – 12pm – CBS
LSU @ Texas – 1pm – ESPN
Temple @ Penn – 1pm – ESPN+ - There is no predicting either one of these teams, especially the Owls
Mississippi State @ Oklahoma – 1pm - meh, Go State
St. John’s @ DePaul  – 1pm – FS1
Bradley @ Indiana State – 1pm – ESPN+
Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure – 2pm
Louisiana Tech @ UAB – 2pm – ESPN+
SMU @ #20 Memphis – 3pm – CBSSN
Towson @ William & Mary – 3pm
NC State @ Georgia Tech – 3pm – ACCNX
Belmont @ Austin Peay – 3:30pm – ESPN+
BYU @ San Francisco – 4pm
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern – 4pm – ESPN+
Southern Utah @ Eastern Washington – 4:05pm
#15 Kentucky @ #18 Texas Tech – 5pm – ESPN
Wofford @ Western Carolina – 6pm – ESPN3
#1 Baylor @ Florida – 7pm – ESPN
#22 Arizona @ Arizona State – 8:30pm – Pac-12
Colorado State @ Utah State – 9pm – ESPNU

Sunday, January 26th
#17 Maryland @ Indiana – 12pm – CBS
#11 Michigan State @ Minnesota – 2pm – FOX

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

So, how many bids will the Big 10 get?  I've seen brackets that have them with 12 right now.  I think by law a conference with "10" in the conference name should only be able to get 10 bids max.  Ohio St. is fading badly but it's hard to tell the rest apart.

Ohio State is miraculously not even going to miss the tournament even at 7-13, or so it appears based on NET forecasting. They are still a 6/7 seed in spite of all this and the awful Q1 record because the efficiency numbers have held up their NET. Sorry for letting you guys down earlier this year

Michigan is the likelier candidate to be held out (in spite of the superior Gonzaga win!) and has dropped to 9/10 seed territory due to their similar skid. Also have to assume Purdue is out - that scary schedule is more of a curse than a blessing in the race to stay more than a game over .500.

I think 9.5 or slightly fewer feels like the safe projection. Minnesota could be in a heap of trouble with a loss this weekend. As could tOSU if it gets really bad. Disappointed that Indiana appears to be on track now in spite of the minefield in front of them.

Guess the SEC and ACC benefit from this when the A-10 bubble takes bad losses.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Week 13:
Friday, January 31st
Harvard @ Penn – 4pm – ESPNU - revenge for last year's coaching failure!
Akron @ Kent State – 5:30pm – CBSSN
VCU @ Rhode Island – 6pm – ESPN2

Saturday, February 1st
Creighton @ #8 Villanova – 11am – FS1
WKU @ FIU – 11am
Indiana @ Ohio State – 11am – ESPN
#14 Michigan State @ Wisconsin – 12pm – FOX
#6 Louisville @ NC State – 1pm – ESPN
DePaul @ Marquette – 1pm
#2 Gonzaga @ San Francisco – 3pm
#5 FSU @ VA Tech – 3pm – ACCNX
#25 Rutgers vs. Michigan – 3:30pm – BTN
#11 Oregon @ Stanford – 5pm – PAC12
#13 Kentucky] @ #17 Auburn – 5pm – ESPN
#21 Houston @ Cincinnati – 5pm – ESPN2
#23 Wichita State @ Tulsa – 5pm – ESPNU
Arkansas @ Alabama – 5pm – SECN
Stephen F. Austin @ Sam Houston State – 5:30pm – ESPN3
#9 Duke @ Syracuse – 7pm – ESPN
Clemson @ Wake – 7pm – ACCN
Nevada @ Boise State – 9pm – ESPNU
St. Mary’s @ BYU – 9pm – ESPN2
#20 Colorado @ Southern Cal – 9:30pm – FS1

Sunday, February 2nd
#19 Illinois @ #18 Iowa – 12pm – FS1
Georgetown @ St. John’s – 12pm – CBS

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

DePaul yet again finds a way to lose a Q1 (Q1A no less) game despite a lead at the U4. The strength of resume allowed me to keep them "First Four Out" until today but no longer :/

Xavier takes their place in the First Four Out but their resume is still hideous excluding a big 1A road win. But I move from most optimistic about DePaul being the sixth bid to Providence. Creighton @ Providence will be hugely consequential this week.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

With the new NET Rankings as of Super Bowl Sunday, this is about where the bubble stands. I think about five of these final eight are trending downward and will play their way out.

Last Four Byes:
#41 Florida
#40 Rhode Island - Excellent shape with a solid resume. Just need to avoid slip ups.
#48 Oklahoma - As of today because they always intentionally build up a strong non-conference resume. Not very likely they take two of four from WVU/TTU, and they could lose one of their final two against non-tournament teams to knock them out.
(Auto Bid: #43 Northern Iowa)
#58 Virginia - Blech. The losses no longer look bad, and FSU is a better win than nearly anyone has. If ASU keeps winning, they might have a third Q1 win. If they win in Blacksburg, I don't think they will be left out.

Last Four In:
#36 VCU - Very thin resume based on efficiency in close losses. Need to take 2/3 @Richmond, @SLU, vs. Dayton without any slip ups to feel good.
#47 Xavier - Resume is close to Virginia, but TCU is trending the wrong direction so they may lose their second Q1 win.
#44 Minnesota
#39 Mississippi State - Louisiana Tech and perhaps New Mexico State losses could move to Q2 if they win their conferences. But they really need to finish no worse than 8-2.

First Four Out:
1) #37 Purdue - Ranking as of today. Future looks bleak.
2) #42 Alabama - If they can also beat Mississippi State on the road on 2/25 (or if State's losses look worse), they will overtake State and make up for the early season losses.
3) #50 Memphis - UT is trending down fast and they could lose their only Q1 win through no fault of their own.
4) #61 Virginia Tech - MSU will keep them floating around but there are no resume building opportunities for three weeks. Hosting Virginia could turn into a play-in game if they don't lose to a bottom feeder.

Next Four:
5) #46 Cincinnati - ZERO and four against Q1. A single Q2-A win will likely not make up for a 5-3 record in Q3 games (a record buoyed by two OT wins!). They will need to win @Wichita or @Houston. Do not want to take an 0-6 Q1 record into the AAC Tournament.
6) #59 DePaul - They have the wins, but the winning percentage in quality games is dropping (.333). Need to close out games and finish 6-3.
7) #56 Richmond - The rest of the schedule is garbage except for a Q2 game with VCU. Two great wins yet it seems for naught. Need too many teams in front of them to suffer losses.
(Auto-Bid: #54 ETSU)
8) #57 Utah State - Computers actually put them in...I don't see it and going forward, I don't think a win @CSU can be a difference maker. Unimpressive Q2/3 losses.

Eight More Realistic Candidates:
9) #51 Georgetown - Mac McClung out today in a must win road game. They just can't win away from Verizon Center. We're just about done here.
10) #66 Syracuse - Interesting resume full of road wins and home losses against all ACC bubble teams. I don't think those road wins continue @FSU or @Louisville, so last night may have been the nail in the coffin.
11) #55 Arizona State - NET figure seems inflated due to winning against Quade-less UW, but I still think the Sun Devils will jump to First Four out sooner rather than later. Raw quadrant records look like a team that could sneak in.
12) #69 NC State - Unlike other ACC teams, they have reasonable and helpful opportunities in front of them, but they have dropped 20 ranks exceptionally fast.
13) #64 Providence - Survived their toughest remaining game, but like DePaul still need to go at least 6-3 to have a chance (and they close the season with each other!). Hosting Creighton and going to Xavier this week will tell us how realistic that is.
14) #70 Tennessee - Every remaining game is an opportunity to prove that they can compete without Turner, but they are on the edge.
15) #73 St. John's - Two strong Q1-A wins. Too many Q4 wins may hold them back. The NET needs to move up about 15 spots. Unfortunately, the schedule in front of them may be more menacing than Purdue's.
16) #60 Tulsa - Zero and two against Q1. Better Q2 wins than Cincinnati but also two bad losses and worse metrics. Like Cincinnati, has two Q1 opportunities @Houston and @Wichita.

Long Shots: #74 Utah; #68 Saint Louis; #71 UNCG; #75 South Carolina; #62 Texas; #65 Notre Dame; #78 Pitt; #72 SMU

Off the "Bubble": #79 Oregon State; #53 Washington; #67 TCU

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Xavier putting up an outstanding road performance again to strengthen their bubble position even further while seemingly knocking out DePaul. Texas Tech's win is the bare minimum needed to keep them off the bubble while knocking Oklahoma down a rung on our 'As of Today' bracketology. The Torvik T-Cast already had them out on the full season forecast, so this definitely won't help. They really need to win Saturday or else they will need to beat TTU in the Big XII Tournament rematch and sweat.

Alabama and Virginia Tech took brutal losses tonight. Tennessee still needs a lot of help.

Tomorrow night is the big night for the bubble this week.

• Purdue is now the last team in, and they host 5 seed Iowa as 3.5 point favourites. They can't lose at home as they aim to stay more than a game over .500, but the remaining schedule isn't impossible by any means if they start playing well away from home.
  

• Providence is still pretty far off, but they are just one point dogs hosting 4 seed Creighton at the Dunk. Torvik thinks a win will move them to 'First Four Out' on the forecast model.
  

• Georgetown is a pick 'em underdog to 3 seed Seton Hall! They'll have more chances, but you get the feeling this is the tipping point game on their schedule, and another close home loss will leave as a top NIT seed.
  

• A Minnesota (-3.5) home loss to the Badgers will move them to .500 and solidly out (for now!).
  

• NC State (-3.5) cannot afford a road loss to dwindling Miami, which will be dangerous if Lykes returns. A loss moves them to the very back of the line for now despite having ample opportunities ahead of them.
  

Four teams with home games they should win will be noteworthy to watch, but they all have different circumstances. Saint Louis (67%) hosts Duquesne hoping to stay alive. Memphis (79%) cannot afford a loss to cratering Temple. Virginia (76%) would fall out with a loss to Clemson at JPJ. Florida (83%) is looking to retain their bye hosting the Anthony Edwards show. Odds are one will lose!

Utah State is also in action. I think they are surging double digit home favourites over UNLV. I'll be interested in how their ratings are impacted by performance.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Saturday, Feb. 8:

#18 LSU @ #11 Auburn 12:00 ESPN
#16 Michigan State @ Michigan 12:00 Fox
DePaul @ Georgetown 12:00
SMU @ Temple 12:00
#15 Kentucky @ Tennessee 1:00 CBS
Texas A&M @ South Carolina 1:00 SECN
St. Louis @ #6 Dayton 2:00 CBSSN
Florida @ Ole Miss 2:00 ESPN2 - Please Ole Miss! Please drop 'em!
#13 West Virginia @ Oklahoma 2:00 ESPNU
#12 Seton Hall @ #10 Villanova 2:30 Fox
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne 3:00
Texas Tech @ Texas 4:00 ESPN2
Sam Houston State @ Nicholls 4:00
Alabama @ Georgia 6:00 SECN - potentially the most critical game of the weekend
#7 Duke @ North Carolina, 6:00 ESPN
Stanford @ #24 Colorado 6:00 PAC12
Kansas State @ Iowa State 8:00 ESPN2
#2 Gonzaga @ St. Mary's 10:00 ESPN
#14 Oregon @ Oregon State 10:30 PAC12 - I'm going to regret taking a gutsy risk against what the data says!

Sunday, Feb. 9: lol, no way all home teams pull this off but....

#19 Butler @ Marquette 12:00 FS1
Cincinnati @ Connecticut 12:00 CBSSN
Ohio State @ Wisconsin 1:00 CBS
Wichita State @ #25 Houston 3:00 ESPN
Notre Dame @ Clemson 6:00 ACCN
Washington @ Washington State 6:00 ESPNU - See Civil War comment

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

https://twitter.com/BradCav2/status/1226163101894049792?s=19

This tweet is exactly how I've felt for weeks at this point except that it excludes Memphis from a team that will 'fall out' (I've already had them out). Oklahoma picked up a shocking win today so that may no longer be completely true. Florida may replace them on the list!

Arizona State, however, may come at the expense of USC. Big data point coming soon!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The bubble is thinning quickly! Purdue moves to safe territory by securing a dominating win AND (finally) a road win. Texas Tech also cleared two of the most dangerous teams in their path, and it’s difficult to see them failing to qualify. And Wisconsin has proven their cred without Kobe King in the line up.

Not So Safe Yet!:
#35 Rhode Island – The ticket could be punched this week @Dayton, but it’s very unlikely they will need to take either game against Dayton with the resume they have built up. Forecast: Likely IN.
#38 Arkansas – A tumultuous week with two OT losses to take a bad Q2 loss and miss a Q1 deal sealer. The schedule ahead is treacherous, and every remaining game is expected to be close. Solely carried by wins in Bloomington and Tuscaloosa, which may look a lot worse soon. Forecast: Lean IN coming down to the wire. Metrics like the Hogs, but the resume is not good. Two SEC bubble games this week in Knoxville (Q1) and hosting Mississippi State (Q2) which could significantly alter positioning.
(#36 Northern Iowa) – The remaining road games are not harmful, but the existing losses are costly. Best not to call them ‘safe’ but the state of the bubble should make them feel okay. Forecast: Likely IN
#61 Indiana – Four losses in a row! Every remaining game is against a tournament team and may be underdogs in the next six (all Q1 games). Hosting Iowa before traveling to Ann Arbor. Three of the best bubble wins will boost them for now but many losses will severely dilute the record. Forecast: Deeply endangered (with opportunities ahead). Probably OUT.
#30 Stanford – Losing 5 of 6, but the win was Oregon – and they murdered Oklahoma. Unless they can’t stop losing, this may come down to the wire, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them keep splitting each weekend’s games down the stretch. Forecast: Ask me in one week. I want to see how the Arizona homestand goes. Getting swept will knock them pretty far out, but a sweep will put them in very comfortable position.

Last Four Byes:
#43 Wichita State – Wins against VCU and Oklahoma came at home but are buoying them just above that level of the bubble for now. Going to UCF next week is a Q2 game but a big risk nonetheless. If they survive, they may coast on the ‘in’ side for a couple weeks before a dangerous final stretch. Forecast: Likely to be bumped OUT due to late road games at other AAC bubble teams/SMU.
#48 Oklahoma (Up 1) – Signature win secured! Forecast: Probably IN. Hard to see them missing unless they drop far off road games in Stillwater AND Fort Worth (where they start out as slight underdogs!) Next week is uneventful.
#45 Xavier (Up 3) – I want to put them behind UF based on neutral H2H, but they have snuck ahead on a better signature win and a much better Q2 record after this successful week. Forecast: Lean IN. They just need to take one of the two road games (Butler/SJU) this week to stay in position for a bid.
#47 Florida (Down 3) – They saved themselves from a disastrous Q3 loss only to lose to a worse (albeit Q2) team! So much talent but trending in the wrong direction (especially the defense). Forecast: Tilt OUT. Uneventful week ahead. The question will be if they can beat either Arkansas or LSU in Gainesville while cleaning up the road act to stay narrowly on the straight path. I don’t think so.

Last Four In:
#40 Minnesota (Up 2) – Five outstanding wins albeit in 15 opportunities. This would be what DePaul would look like without the bad losses, but being one game over .500 makes it hard to keep them in. Forecast: Probably IN. They have both Northwestern and Nebraska to improve the record. They are the Big Ten’s best home team and have a full week to prep for hosting Iowa. Road games are do-able. I think you will see them on a CBS affiliate.
#32 VCU (Down 1) – No change from last week even as the NET ranking rises. They really need to win a road game and sweep Richmond on Saturday but their hopes aren’t dead without that. Forecast: Lean IN but could be cannibalized by a bid stealer.
#51 Virginia (Down 3) – It may no longer come down to VA Tech as I alluded to last week, but they have four road games all projected within two points. Can they win two? Does defense travel? The first of those challenges will be as a slight underdog in Chapel Hill (not to overlook a bubble date with Notre Dame in Charlottesville). Forecast: Tilt IN assuming they win both next week
#50 USC – Brutal missed opportunities and Stanford’s tanking costs them one of their two quality wins toppling them overnight. The next week should be a breeze for any bubble team. Afterwards, they have rematches with each of the four expansion teams that caused their 1-3 slide. They will need to come out of it 3-1 to feel good, but they could be underdogs in all of them. Forecast: Probably OUT.

First Four Out:
1) #53 Arizona State (Up 12) – Single spectacular home win and now adding one against a solid bubble team. The neutral H2H loss to UVA is rather unideal as it currently stands. I like the remaining schedule, and I think they could all but secure if they defeat Stanford on the road this week, but I’m not sure they can punch their ticket before the return trip to SoCal. Forecast: Lean IN.
2) #41 Mississippi State (Down 2) – The easiest remaining power conference schedule you can draw up. Picking up a Q1 win in Fayetteville may put them in comfortable position. Fail, and it will be an iffy case Forecast: Lean IN.
3) #49 Utah State (Up 5) – Continuing their trend towards last team in territory when others falter. Forecast: Tilt IN.
(#54 ETSU) – Skeptical due to the result of another loss. We’ll discuss it when necessary.
4) #46 Cincinnati (Up 1) – Finally a Q1 win but still not a quality win. There is clearly an upward trend, but unless they win the auto-bid, I can’t see the resume getting them any better than Dayton. Forecast: Lean IN.

Next Four:
5) #57 Providence (Up 8) – So close to passing Cincinnati based on similarity of resume, but need one more Q1 win due to the Q4 stain. The four most competitive games are all over the next two weeks, and they likely need to go 3-1 (@SJU / SHU / @Georgetown / Marquette). Very doable. Forecast: Lean IN (Bold prediction). Next week may very well move them in!
6) #42 Alabama (Down 4) – The record is abysmal for an SEC school including the Q2 record. Only a single quality win without the secondary wins of a Virginia-type resume. Positioned as they are due to the H2H over Richmond with similar resume and better metrics. Getting swept this week (@Auburn / LSU) may finish them but I can re-evaluate. Forecast: Likely OUT.
7) #55 Richmond (No change) – Very doubtful that a home win over VCU will be enough to be more than a spoiler but they will hover around. Forecast: Probably OUT.
8) #52 Georgetown (Up 1) – Similar resume to Alabama, buoyed by a home win against a top 20 team but the second order wins don’t complement it like they do for ASU or UVA. The remaining schedule is brutal. Three impossible road games. Unlikely to even win two home games. Losing to Seton Hall was time to give up hope. Forecast: Definitely OUT.

Still Alive – but I don’t believe: 9) #60 Memphis (Two road trips this week could knock them even further off the bubble); 10) #66 Texas (Purdue win looking better but Texas just blew their best chance in conference); 11) #62 NC State (First of four Q1 opportunities this week @Syracuse); 12) #65 Syracuse (The Q2 record remains unforgivable and the opportunities just aren’t there); 13) #64 UNC Greensboro (Just keep winning to remain a longshot…); 14) #67 Tennessee (Two Q2 games this week to keep hanging on by a thread); 15) #56 Notre Dame (Still no resume, and I don’t think @UVA this week will create one); 16) #68 Oregon State (Completely absurd resume even surpassing DePaul’s but they show up to big games and have a more reasonable schedule)

Indiana, Arkansas/Stanford, Wichita State, Florida and USC are expected to trend out in favor of the top five bubble teams.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The AAC contenders (except Houston, which is pretty much a lock) have not had a good weekend.

I don't know why I associate you with Memphis fandom for basketball. Do you have a mid-major team given the state of Georgia and Tech basketball?

The really evil side of me really wants UConn to steal a bid one last time in place of all three/four of the bubble contenders. The summer Twitter war of AAC fans saying that their conference was about to overtake the Big East as a conference this year (as a proof of UConn's stupidity) justly infuriated me. (You are obviously a lot more reasonable and logical person than those Ultras, but I just want the conference to start to be overtaken by the depth of the A-10 and have more in common with the WCC - no harm/offense to you).

UConn has the money, desire, fans and coach to be successful. And very soon they will have the conference and conference mates.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Week 15:

Friday, February 14th
Akron @ Central Michigan – 6pm – ESPNU
Monmouth @ Canisius – 6pm – ESPN3

Saturday, February 15th
Purdue @ Ohio State – 11am – FOX
#24 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State – 12pm – CBS
Little Rock @ UT Arlington – 2pm – ESPN+
Western Kentucky @ UTSA – 2pm
#14 West Virginia @ #1 Baylor – 3pm – ESPN+
#25 LSU @ Alabama – 3pm – ESPN2
VCU @ Richmond – 3pm – CBSSN
#22 Illinois @ Rutgers – 3:30pm – BTN
#9 Maryland @ Michigan State – 5pm – ESPN2 - the epic comeback team vs the epic collapse team!
#20 Houston @ SMU – 5pm – ESPNU
UNLV @ New Mexico – 5pm – CBSSN
Yale @ Penn – 5pm – ESPN+
#10 Seton Hall @ Providence – 7pm – CBSSN
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago – 7pm – ESPN2
Towson @ James Madison – 7pm
Virginia @ North Carolina – 7pm – ESPN
#2 Gonzaga @ Pepperdine – 9pm
#16 Colorado @ Oregon State – 9pm – S1
Washington @ UCLA – 9pm
Eastern Washington @ Portland State – 9:05pm
Arizona @ Stanford – 9:30pm – PAC12
UC Irvine @ Hawai’i – 11pm – ESPN2

Sunday, February 16th
#21 Iowa @ Minnesota – 12pm – FS1