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  Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
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Author Topic: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC  (Read 5611 times)
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« on: October 20, 2019, 04:15:15 pm »
« edited: November 10, 2019, 02:40:37 pm by ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 »

Happening today. Evo Morales, in office since 2006, is running for an unprecedented fourth term following the controversial Supreme Tribunal decision to strike down term limits (that were in the constitution).

Candidates

Evo Morales (MAS) -  Born into poverty, Evo Morales cut his political teeth as head of a union for coca growers which fought against War on Drugs attacks on their livelihoods. Ultimately this outlook took him into direct conflict with various Bolivian governments, which he saw as selling out a traditional Andean pastime at the behest of foreign Yankees. He took his union into the field of politics, eventually coming over to take over a largely defunct Falangist (yeah) party, MAS, and beyond his initial focus on legalizing coca to a broader socialist outlook. Luckily for him, the Bolivian business and political elite were dysfunctional, venal and dominated by whites in a very non-white country, and their response to him exploiting the crisis created after the Water and Gas Wars were shambolic: trying to expel him from Congress on dubious grounds, cycling through several hapless Presidents and rather blatantly trying to get the Bush administration to bail them out. In 2005, Morales won with a majority in the first round, a feat which he repeated in 2009 and 2014.

Evo Morales's Presidency, for all its leftist bluster, is very similar to the sort of social democracy we are familiar with elsewhere, avoiding calls to nationalize mines and pushing for pro-growth policies with largely balanced budgets. He took credit (fairly or unfairly, according to your political persuasion) for an extraordinary economic boom: cuts to poverty, inequality, unemployment, the deficit, debt and inflation all bolstered his popularity and allowed him to deflect from all other criticisms. This also led to social reforms: the elimination of illiteracy (by some measures, anyway), a modern constitution, recognition of indigenous peoples and the legalisation of coca. Even the end of the commodities boom hasn't been as disastrous as it was in Ecuador and Venezuela, owing to the aforementioned lack of deficits during the boom years. The ultimate legacy of MAS appears to be the creation of a truly indigenous middle-class, which isn't something to sniff at.

Not all find Morales so great. The country's lowland eastern provinces especially have been the centre of opposition to him, led by the wealthy and whiter province of Santa Cruz. The eastern lowlands have even made threats about secession, afraid of losing power to the lowlanders. The recent moves to quash terms limits in violation of his own constitution and a referendum have certainly stung. The country's strong focus on supporting extractive industries including within national parks has also caused a green backlash, especially after a disastrous fire this year that burnt vast swathes of the Chiquitano dry forest blamed on indiginous highlanders moving into the lowlanders turf and overly exploiting the land. And a recent rise in the deficit may portend future economic storms: should the President have done more to diversify the rather backward and non-industrial Bolivian economy? Even in the 2015 local elections, MAS saw some punishment, especially in middle-class urban indigenous areas that had once been the primary beneficiary of the President's pro-indigenous reforms (El Alto) - perhaps the ascetic President for the poor will become a victim of his own success?

Carlos Mesa (FRI or "Revolutionary Left Front") - One of the Presidents in the old Gas Wars, Mesa won some credit for breaking from the previous harsh treatment of protesters unleashed by his predecessor Goni upon the latter's resignation. Mild-mannered and intellectual, Mesa presents himself as a compromise figure who can unite the people who have always hated Morales with students, liberals and the new urban middle-class irritated by the term limits shenanigans without representing a drastic turn to the economic right (although Mesa pushes for increased foreign investment). He also is trying to court the green movement, opposing extractive industries in national parks. In case you are curious about Mesa's new party's name, it may not surprise you to know that the FRI, after previously being a front for a Maoist rebellion back in the day, seems (from my understanding) to have placed itself up to sale after the death of its longtime leader in 2017.

Oscar Ortiz "Bolivia Says No" - in third place is the Senator from right-wing stronghold Santa Cruz. Mr Ortitz represents a political tendency that is very much opposed to the, err, racial developments that have occurred under Morales. His candidacy has very much annoyed the Bolivian opposition, who wanted a united front, but his party wanted to cement its control over Santa Cruz province. Also very much an anti-Green, who seeks to export the "Santa Cruz model" (i.e. drill baby drill/more soy beans) to the entire country.

Chi Hyung Chung Christina Democrats - theocratic candidate who think women's rights and homosexuality are ruining Bolivia. Has seen the most success of the random candidates in polling.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2019, 04:17:47 pm »

If Evo does not get to 50% of the vote I assume Congress decides ?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2019, 04:34:38 pm »

If Evo does not get to 50% of the vote I assume Congress decides ?

nah run-off in December. He also avoids the run-off if he is over 40% and ten points clear of his rival, which is another reason why Otiz's campaign caused so much ire. (heck, his own VP candidate defected mid campaign and endorsed Mesa)
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National Progressive
General Mung Beans
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2019, 05:31:02 pm »

Chi Hyung Chung Christina Democrats - theocratic candidate who think women's rights and homosexuality are ruining Bolivia. Has seen the most success of the random candidates in polling.

Chung is the child of missionary Korean Presbyterian parents and who was naturalized as a Bolivian citizen. Despite his right-wing views (he even is citing Park Chung Hee "Saemaeul" or New Villages programs as precedent for how he will develop Bolivia's economy), he was born in the famously left-leaning city of Gwangju.
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Fubart Solman 🥀
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2019, 06:41:34 pm »

Chi Hyung Chung Christina Democrats - theocratic candidate who think women's rights and homosexuality are ruining Bolivia. Has seen the most success of the random candidates in polling.

Chung is the child of missionary Korean Presbyterian parents and who was naturalized as a Bolivian citizen. Despite his right-wing views (he even is citing Park Chung Hee "Saemaeul" or New Villages programs as precedent for how he will develop Bolivia's economy), he was born in the famously left-leaning city of Gwangju.

Now that’s a fascinating candidate.

Mesa doesn’t seem too bad.
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bigic
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2019, 07:13:02 pm »

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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2019, 08:36:10 pm »

Results with 64% counted:
Evo Morales (Movement for Socialism) 45.3%
Carlos Mesa (Civic Community) 38.2%
Chi Hyung Chung (Christian Democratic Party) 8.8%
Óscar Ortiz (Bolivia Says No) 4.4%
Félix Patzi (Third System Movement) 1.2%
Virginio Lema (Revolutionary Nationalist Movement) 0.8%
Ruth Nina (National Action Party of Bolivia) 0.7%
Víctor Hugo Cárdenas (Solidarity Civic Union) 0.5%
Ismael Rodríguez (Front for Victory) 0.3%

Morales won the departments of La Paz, Potosí, Oruro, Cochabamba and Pando while Mesa won the departments of Santa Cruz, Chuquisaca, Tarija and Beni.

(great write-up Crabcake btw).
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Antonio V
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2019, 09:21:40 pm »

Glad to see the obvious racist go down in flames. Mesa definitely seems like a step in the right direction for the anti-Morales camp, and there are a lot of legitimate reasons to conclude that Morales' time has gone, but ultimately I'd still rather he won this one. I don't trust the opposition not to undermine his accomplishments.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2019, 01:41:13 pm »

With Morales’s camp claiming late votes from his rural base will put him over the 10%-gap threshold, the count has stalled at 83% (although I’ve also seen figures saying 86% or even 89%), with the percentages essentially unchanged (maybe a bit more for Ortiz and a bit less for Chi). The opposition is already crying foul and declaring victory by having forced a runoff. No word on when it’ll officially resume.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2019, 04:47:52 pm »

Chamber of Deputies

MAS - 64 (-24)
CC (FRI led list) - 54 (+54)
Christian Dems - 9 (-1)
MDS (Ortiz list) - 3

MAS narrowly loses majority

Senate

MAS - 19 (-6)
CC - 16 (+16)
MDS - 1
Christians - 0 (-2)
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Heat
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2019, 05:55:03 pm »

Chamber of Deputies

MAS - 64 (-24)
CC (FRI led list) - 54 (+54)
Christian Dems - 9 (-1)
MDS (Ortiz list) - 3

MAS narrowly loses majority

Senate

MAS - 19 (-6)
CC - 16 (+16)
MDS - 1
Christians - 0 (-2)
How much of a hindrance would this result be to each of Morales and Mesa, if they were to win the second round?
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PSOL
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2019, 07:00:39 pm »

Hopefully Morales wins the Runoff. Let this be a painful lesson that MAS needs to start delivering to the Bolivian people stat, starting with running new blood.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2019, 09:02:53 pm »
« Edited: October 21, 2019, 09:08:10 pm by Solidarity Forever »

The counts I’m seeing now have Morales at 46% and Mesa at 36% (Morales having juuuuust over a 10% lead), with 95% of the vote in. Seems fishy but not outside the realm of possibility.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2019, 11:50:43 pm »

Protests and repression all over the country. Mesa refuses to recognize Morales’s proclamation of victory in the first round.
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sjoycefla
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2019, 09:38:43 am »

Back in the good old days, you wouldn't need to pause the count for 24 hours to "find" enough ballots to put you over the top. Where is dedication? Where is passion? Where is respect for the craft?
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jaichind
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2019, 09:43:48 am »

I recall back in the 2016 Referendum the the later part of the count got more Evo friendly so it is not a surprise that the Evo lead gets larger toward the end of the count.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2019, 01:58:27 pm »

I recall back in the 2016 Referendum the the later part of the count got more Evo friendly so it is not a surprise that the Evo lead gets larger toward the end of the count.

As he said, a lot of the 17% of remaining votes were from rural areas, which are strongly pro-Evo.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2019, 08:33:49 pm »
« Edited: October 24, 2019, 10:42:15 am by Solidarity Forever »

Results as of now are showing Morales up by 9.4% with 96% of the vote counted. The government has invited the OAS to supervise the vote, and Secretary General Luis Almagro has accepted.

https://computo.oep.org.bo/
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kelestian
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2019, 04:20:03 am »

And OF COURSE russian officials are involved in this (particularly, Rosatom). Goddamn, do they want participate in ALL world elections?

https://www.proekt.media/investigation/morales-rosatom-eng/
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FredLindq
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2019, 05:19:03 am »

Can some one tell me more about CC (FRI led list)?!
Is FRI now more centrist than it used to be and what more parties are on that list?

What happened to Samuel Dorina and UN? They did not run at all?

Does have a party have to have a presidential candidate in order to stand in the congressional elections?
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2019, 07:29:14 pm »

The OAS and EU are now asking that a second round be held; Evo’s still saying he won. I’m seeing different numbers in different places, some showing Evo winning outright and others not.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2019, 01:11:09 pm »

So the "official" results say no runoff. Yikes. I thought Evo was the lesser evil, but if he truly had a hand in rigging the votes he has to go.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2019, 06:37:33 pm »
« Edited: November 09, 2019, 06:40:42 pm by Simfan34 »

Armed forces declares neutrality, says will "not clash with the people" after police "mutiny", protestors seize national television headquarters.

It's a step short of "the army stands with the people", but it's never a good sign for a regime when the army declines to reiterate its support.
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contra toda autoridad excepto mi mamá
razze
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« Reply #23 on: November 09, 2019, 10:06:39 pm »

Erica Chenoweth says when the police and military start to side with the protestors, regime change is imminent. Hopefully Bolivia doesn't fall apart because of this. Evo was no Chavez or Maduro, he hasn't been nearly as bad.
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∀lex
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« Reply #24 on: November 10, 2019, 06:52:51 am »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 07:12:13 am by ∀lex »

The Organization of American States called today for new elections to be held after stating to have found serious irregularities in the results and clear manipulations of the voting system and it could not verify the result.

BREAKING NEWS: Evo said a few minutes ago that he will follow the OAS recommendations and there will be a new first electoral round and that all members of the Electoral Court will be replaced by new ones chosen by the Legislative Assembly

Also a couple of days ago, the electoral auditing company (Ethical Hacking) selected by the Electoral Court to supervise the electronic part vote counting said that they couldn't "vouch for the integrity of the electoral results" due to a lot of irregularities and weaknesses of the systems they had to work with
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