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January 26, 2020, 12:27:12 am
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  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Stuck with Sanders)
  2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
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Author Topic: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar  (Read 896 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #25 on: January 21, 2020, 03:01:59 pm »

SAD breaking off its alliance with BJP in Delhi feels like a big deal and might be an advanced signal that SAD might break off its alliance with BJP for the 2023 Punjab assembly election which would be huge.  If the SAD is headed in that direction it most likely be because SAD sense that it might lose its Sikh base to a second coming of AAP in Punjab over the CAA issue. 

INC is not a real threat to SAD for the Sikh vote as there will always be a significant anti-INC Sikh base in Punjab.  But AAP is a different matter.  In 2017 AAP was poised to push SAD to third place to capturing the SAD Sikh base.  Then AAP imploded allowing for the revival of SAD in Punjab to become the main opposition to INC.  The AAP decline continued after 2017 fortifying the SAD position as the main opposition to INC.  Now due to  anti-CAA sentiments with the Sikh base SAD might sense that an alliance with the BJP will drive anti-INC but anti-CAA Sikh base over to AAP and SAD has to move to try to prevent that.

 
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jaichind
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« Reply #26 on: January 21, 2020, 03:14:26 pm »

BJP offering JD(U) 2 seats and LJP 1 seats seems be an attempt to capture the Bihari immigrant vote but also to try to hold the JD(U)-BJP-LJP alliance in Bihar together for the 2020 Bihar assembly elections later in the year.

There seems to be some blow-back within the JD(U) over the alliance.  The antj-BJP anti-CAA faction of JD(U) are voicing concern about a BJP-JD(U) alliance in a state outside of Bihar.   The main force within JD(U) centers around Prashant Kishor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prashant_Kishor).  Prashant Kishor is a political strategist that worked for Modi in the 2012 BJP Gujarat assembly election and was a key strategist for the 2014 Modi-BJP LS campaign.  Prashant Kishor, it seems, was expecting some sort of role in the BJP government at the federal level and got nothing.  He then shifted to an anti-BJP stance and worked for the 2015 RJD-JD(U)-INC Bihar assembly campaign that smashed the NDA and then worked for the 2017 INC Punjab campaign.  In 2018 he joined the JD(U) and seems to continue working with non-BJP parties including BJP allies that might not see eye-to-eye with the BJP to outright anti-BJP parties.  It is said that Prashant Kishor is also working with AAP this Delhi election and now he might be working against his own party if he continues his work with AAP.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: January 21, 2020, 03:29:54 pm »

https://www.epw.in/journal/2020/2/special-articles/continuing-practice-untouchability-india.html

Intersecting report on "Continuing Practice Untouchability in India"

Brahmins practices it the most due to most likely religiously beliefs.  It is interesting that OBC practices it more than non-Brahmins upper castes.  Even some Dalits practice it (to other Dalits lower down in the social hierarchy).   Sort of proves that part of this is about the need to feel socially superior to someone else.  Just like in the Old South sometimes White trash would enforce Jim Crow more aggressively than upper income Whites.


Education have limited impact on the practicing of untouchability


The practice of untouchability  centers around the Hindu heartland.  More urbanized Maharashtra has lower instances of the  practice of untouchability  but fairly urban Gujarat have a high instance of practice of untouchability.
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jaichind
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« Reply #28 on: January 25, 2020, 09:16:44 am »

India Today MOTN poll

For LS
        vote    seats
NDA  41%    303
  BJP 36%     271
UPA  29%     108
  INC 20%      60




Not that much change from 2019 LS election other than SHS leaving NDA cost NDA a bunch of votes and seats.  BJP and INC vote bases mostly same as 2019 LS election with a slight swing toward INC

Modi still way ahead of Rahul Gandhi for PM and seen as the the greatest Indian PM ever




Near majority support removing Article 370 for J&K

 


View on CAA seems mixed with plurality for CAA but a plurality does see CAA as a BJP political tool versus a legitimate policy concern  

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jaichind
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« Reply #29 on: January 25, 2020, 09:22:29 am »

Telengana municipal elections sees TRS with a massive landslide victory with BJP and INC fighting for a distance second.


TRS was re-elected in 2018 assembly elections and being that it is only been less than two years since re-election one would expect TRS to sweep these sort of local elections. Still the scale of TRS victory shows what a force TRS is at the local level.
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: January 25, 2020, 09:24:41 am »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/assembly-elections/delhi-assembly-elections-2020-congress-aap-battle-for-same-vote-base-in-delhi-polls/story-5T3Iy5O1vrR5Gz46q1EeVP.html

"BJP banking on good show by Congress in Delhi polls. Here’s why"

It is pretty sad these days that BJP is hoping that INC does well in Delhi.  Since most of the AAP base came from the INC base, INC retaking some of its old base from AAP is the only way BJP can win.
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jaichind
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« Reply #31 on: January 25, 2020, 10:01:11 am »

After the TRS landslide in municipal elections in Telengana, TRS leader KCR made common cause with Arvind Kejriwal's AAP in Delhi by indicating that AAP is heading toward a landslide victory in Delhi and that regional parties like TRS and AAP will continue its non-INC anti-BJP position of anti-CAA.
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