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February 22, 2020, 03:47:29 pm
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  Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC (search mode)
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Author Topic: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC  (Read 6239 times)
Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« on: October 21, 2019, 01:41:13 pm »

With Morales’s camp claiming late votes from his rural base will put him over the 10%-gap threshold, the count has stalled at 83% (although I’ve also seen figures saying 86% or even 89%), with the percentages essentially unchanged (maybe a bit more for Ortiz and a bit less for Chi). The opposition is already crying foul and declaring victory by having forced a runoff. No word on when it’ll officially resume.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2019, 09:02:53 pm »
« Edited: October 21, 2019, 09:08:10 pm by Solidarity Forever »

The counts I’m seeing now have Morales at 46% and Mesa at 36% (Morales having juuuuust over a 10% lead), with 95% of the vote in. Seems fishy but not outside the realm of possibility.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2019, 11:50:43 pm »

Protests and repression all over the country. Mesa refuses to recognize Morales’s proclamation of victory in the first round.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2019, 01:58:27 pm »

I recall back in the 2016 Referendum the the later part of the count got more Evo friendly so it is not a surprise that the Evo lead gets larger toward the end of the count.

As he said, a lot of the 17% of remaining votes were from rural areas, which are strongly pro-Evo.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2019, 08:33:49 pm »
« Edited: October 24, 2019, 10:42:15 am by Solidarity Forever »

Results as of now are showing Morales up by 9.4% with 96% of the vote counted. The government has invited the OAS to supervise the vote, and Secretary General Luis Almagro has accepted.

https://computo.oep.org.bo/
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2019, 07:29:14 pm »

The OAS and EU are now asking that a second round be held; Evo’s still saying he won. I’m seeing different numbers in different places, some showing Evo winning outright and others not.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2019, 08:28:20 pm »

I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2019, 08:49:18 pm »

I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.
Yeah, and then accidentally die from the crossfires of the police.

This is a blatant and violent power grab by the former rulers of Bolivia, sadly there exists no militias to restore democracy in Bolivia at the moment.

Shame how Evo’s ego was too big to let literally anyone else in his party be President after 21F. It’s entirely his fault that his accomplishments are in danger now.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2019, 10:48:44 pm »

Why didn't Morales appoint officers loyal to him to the top jobs in the military and police? Are there no leftists in the security services?

According to El País, he did. Williams Kaliman is close to him. https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573426533_008486.html
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2019, 12:09:33 am »

Seems to be a common point on leftist twitter that the US is backing the anti-Evo factions to force him out of power. Is there any truth to this? As of now I'm treating it with more than a little skepticism until proven

They're going off of past history. But so far, there is nothing to pinpoint US involvement in any of this.

If anything, there seems to be a popular contagion effect going on in Latin America right now: Brazil, Chile, now Bolivia.

Ecuador, Haiti, Peru.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2019, 11:06:28 am »

Pretty much out of the cards now, but Morales even win a new election?

Of course not. They made it clear that they aren't going to allow an indigenous President ever again.

“They” weren’t able to stop him the first three times, so clearly “they” can’t be too influential. The only thing that’s changed here is the referendum and everything that came after that.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2019, 11:24:41 pm »

Áñez officially confirmed as acting president (by the constitutional court), new elections must be within 90 days.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2019, 11:20:40 am »

Áñez officially confirmed as acting president (by the constitutional court), new elections must be within 90 days.

Is the constitutional court a relatively impartial institution in Bolivia or is it a de facto third chamber of Congress like the SCOTUS?

This is the same court that allowed Evo to run in the first place by overturning the 21F referendum, which brought (naturally) many accusations of politicization from the opposition. This feels to me like something of a John Roberts type situation, trying to avoid the appearance of just being another branch of masismo, but I think someone else could answer that better than I could.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #13 on: January 01, 2020, 01:07:57 pm »

Lmao Camacho and Pumari are back together again. Latest poll had Rodríguez at 23%, Mesa at 21%, Camacho at 13%, and Pumari at 10%; MAS percentage dropped significantly when substituting David Choquehuanca, the apparent other most popular potential MAS candidate, for Rodriguez (down to about 10%) but that’s probably more due to name recognition than anything else.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2020, 08:03:50 am »

And, in (yet) another plot twist, President Añez announces she's running for a full term. The additional split of the opposition vote aside - are they actively trying to lose? - Añez appears to have started with her bid with several relevant former Mesa supporters behind her, so it appears Mesa will be the biggest loser from this.

Current field:
(Used the colors Bolivian parties currently use)

Luis Arce / David Choquehuanca (MAS)
Jeanine Añez / TBD (MDS)
Carlos Mesa / Gustavo Pedraza (CC)
Luis Fernando Camacho / Marcos Pumarí (Backed by PDC, ADN, UCS)
Chi Hyun Chung / TBD (Independent, former PDC)
Jorge Quiroga / TBD (MNR)
Félix Patzi / TBD (MTS)

Mesa is already going on the offensive against Áñez and Morales is loving it.
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