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December 12, 2019, 06:59:10 am
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, Speaker YE, Senator ON Progressive)
  STRIB/Mason-Dixon-MN: Biden +12, Warren +11, Sanders +9, Klobuchar +17
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Author Topic: STRIB/Mason-Dixon-MN: Biden +12, Warren +11, Sanders +9, Klobuchar +17  (Read 1161 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 20, 2019, 11:24:46 pm »



Crosstabs
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2019, 11:28:58 pm »

Yikes for Trump. The Twin Cities suburbs might have completely soured on him now, with some rural areas swinging back.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2019, 11:33:20 pm »

These are the regions the Star Tribune uses. This explains why the Twin Cities suburbs tend to be the worst area for Democrats as it includes some ruby red exurban areas.



Also with all of the Democrats only losing the outer state regions by around 5-6, it means they are probably getting solid margins in all of the cities/metros (Duluth, Mankato, Rochester, etc.).
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2019, 05:50:14 am »

Trump is gonna lose in a big wave if he cant even make MN remotely competitive
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Zaybay
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2019, 09:58:05 am »

The Trump approval by region is rather encouraging for our chances of contesting MN-01 and MN-08.

Hennepin/Ramsey: 23/74 (-51)

Metro Suburbs: 49/46 (+3)

Southern MN: 47/49 (-2)

Northern MN: 48/47 (+1)
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Holmes
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2019, 02:22:07 pm »


lol
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2019, 08:22:40 pm »

Trump is not winning Minnesota in 2020. As I've said before, the continuing Democratic trend of the Twin Cities and their suburbs is keeping the Democrats afloat in the state, and more than compensating for their rural losses. I hold fast to my prediction that Trump will not flip a single Clinton 2016 state next year.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2019, 09:56:17 pm »

Yup MN is sinking for GOP. For every old white person flipping from D to R, a young suburban voter is flipping from R to D
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Laki
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2019, 09:35:42 am »

I believe this poll is exaggerated, but it's not a good poll for Trump, and even while I believe they severely overestimate Democrats, there is no indication MN will be as competitive as in 2016.
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SN2903
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2019, 12:14:08 pm »

Trump has an outside chance at MN but they dems have to run a  bad campaign. With that being said it doesn't matter. MN won't decide anything.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2019, 01:30:46 pm »

Trump has an outside chance at MN but they dems have to run a  bad campaign. With that being said it doesn't matter. MN won't decide anything.

Trump won't win MN
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Neoliberal EDUCATED Kansan
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2019, 05:52:20 pm »

Trump definitely needs MN to be closer than this, but MN isnít more likely to flip than ME.
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Laki
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2019, 07:14:46 am »

Trump has an outside chance at MN but they dems have to run a  bad campaign. With that being said it doesn't matter. MN won't decide anything.

Trump won't win MN
It's still a possibility, but very unlikely. 2016 might've been a fluke. I think they're more likely to vote for a left-wing anti-establishment candidate or centrist anti-establishment candidate, while Trump right now became the "establishment" himself in some kind of way.

I believe ME is more likely to flip though right now. I think recently I overestimated Trump in MN, but those are outright terrible polls, even if they overestimate Democrats. I don't think the Dems will win MN in double digits, but Biden will do well in rural areas, while Warren will do better in rural MN compared to other rural Rust Belt areas, and will do very well in the Twin Cities. The huge third party vote in MN will probably go to the Dems, and a lot of Obama - Trump voters will swing back. I don't think MN will be as competitive in 2016, and i was wrong before.

But MN stays a weird state, and will do surprising things in the future i believe so. It's the only state to go for Mondale, and it almost voted for Trump in 2016, they voted for Ventura as governor and are maybe the least partisan state, very swingy and with good prospects for third parties.
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