The University of Mary Washington-VA: Double digit leads for all Democrats
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  The University of Mary Washington-VA: Double digit leads for all Democrats
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Author Topic: The University of Mary Washington-VA: Double digit leads for all Democrats  (Read 3234 times)
Dr. MB
MB
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« Reply #75 on: October 24, 2019, 11:09:07 PM »

It's incredible that 2 years later now Virginia is a "D Safe" state on this forum.  In 2014 I was laughed at for saying Virginia was no longer a swing state because wealthy white suburbanites are now voting democrat.  But to say Virginia is a safe state or a state that Democrats can win by 15 points on the Presidential level is off.  I also suspect that Virginia's electorate is more favorable to democrats in off years because they rely heavily on college educated voters.  Virginia is a lean democrat state because there are more democrats than republicans but there are also lots of persuadable voters in the exurbs and even in Fairfax type counties, which means that if all the stars align Republicans can win it the way Obama won NC in 2008.
I kinda remember you from like...2017. Didn't you delete all your posts?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #76 on: October 25, 2019, 08:43:00 AM »

A 10+ lead for a Democrat in Virginia indicates, most likely, that some of the Bush I - Bush II - Trump support from the southwestern and rural parts of the state is slipping away. Such a part of Virginia still went for Carter and Bill Clinton while the suburban areas went for Ford, both Bushes, and Dole.

Approval numbers for Trump have become tepid in the Mountain and Deep South... Trump still projects to win the arc of states that Bill Clinton won in 1996 and have since not been close for any Democrat since 2004. (LA-AR-TN-KY-WV), but not by as dominating margins as he did in 2016. 
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #77 on: October 25, 2019, 11:14:27 AM »


It’s "Likely" D the same way MO and SC are "Likely" R.
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