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November 13, 2019, 10:09:17 pm
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  Suffolk/USA Today: Three Way Race In Iowa
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Author Topic: Suffolk/USA Today: Three Way Race In Iowa  (Read 817 times)
Torranski
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« on: October 21, 2019, 05:46:18 am »
« edited: October 21, 2019, 11:55:08 am by Torranski »

Results are in, in article form
Undecided at 29%
Biden at 18%
Warren at 17%
Buttigieg at 13%
Sanders at 9%
Steyer, Klobuchar, Harris, Gabbard at 3%
Yang, Booker, O’Rourke at1%
Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Williamson at 0%

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/10/21/iowa-caucuses-pete-buttigieg-elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-top-poll/4025797002/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2019, 05:49:40 am »

Ah, so when Buttigieg goes after his opponents people like him more, but when Harris went after Biden, she was "mean" (or Castro for that matter). Funny how that works, huh?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2019, 06:11:03 am »

Ah, so when Buttigieg goes after his opponents people like him more, but when Harris went after Biden, she was "mean" (or Castro for that matter). Funny how that works, huh?

Whoever talks about misogyny in American politics is an establishment neoliberal shill.
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bilaps
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2019, 06:13:46 am »

Ah, so when Buttigieg goes after his opponents people like him more, but when Harris went after Biden, she was "mean" (or Castro for that matter). Funny how that works, huh?

It must be sexism, that's why Warren is in a tie for first
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2019, 06:21:01 am »

Ah, so when Buttigieg goes after his opponents people like him more, but when Harris went after Biden, she was "mean" (or Castro for that matter). Funny how that works, huh?

It must be sexism, that's why Warren is in a tie for first

Not really talking about gender.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2019, 06:35:16 am »

I know Suffolk is known for undecideds, but 30% is kinda ridiculous.
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2019, 07:17:51 am »

Can Buttigieg’s campaign just die already. The media hard-on for this guy is insufferable. He does the exact same things Beto was ravaged for when he announced (speaks in platitudes, no experience, no plans). But it’s okay because he speaks Swedish.

Then he goes out and attacks the other candidates with bs talking points (“We were this close to banning assault weapons until you said we should have a mandatory buyback”) and he’s praised for having passion, but when Castro and Harris do it their just mean and nasty. I’ll be happy when Bernie and Warren tag-team this guy out of the running next debate.
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#Klobmentum
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2019, 07:25:50 am »

Thats a debate qualifying poll for Gabbard, Klobuchar and Steyer.

Klobuchar needs two more, Gabbard needs three.

Not sure how many Steyer needs.
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Progressive Icon Bill de Blasio
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2019, 07:28:54 am »

Thats a debate qualifying poll for Gabbard, Klobuchar and Steyer.

Klobuchar needs two more, Gabbard needs three.

Not sure how many Steyer needs.

This is an early state poll - qualifying, yes, but they have to hit 5%. 3% is for national polls.
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#Klobmentum
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2019, 07:30:55 am »

Thats a debate qualifying poll for Gabbard, Klobuchar and Steyer.

Klobuchar needs two more, Gabbard needs three.

Not sure how many Steyer needs.

This is an early state poll - qualifying, yes, but they have to hit 5%. 3% is for national polls.

Oh...

Hmmm. Sucks for all the bottom tier candidates then. Harris included apparently.
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Torranski
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2019, 07:36:00 am »

Thats a debate qualifying poll for Gabbard, Klobuchar and Steyer.

Klobuchar needs two more, Gabbard needs three.

Not sure how many Steyer needs.

This is an early state poll - qualifying, yes, but they have to hit 5%. 3% is for national polls.

Thank goodness for that. Maybe we can finally winnow the field below 10 candidates.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2019, 07:56:32 am »
« Edited: October 21, 2019, 08:30:48 am by The Mikado »

Thats a debate qualifying poll for Gabbard, Klobuchar and Steyer.

Klobuchar needs two more, Gabbard needs three.

Not sure how many Steyer needs.

This is an early state poll - qualifying, yes, but they have to hit 5%. 3% is for national polls.

This is incorrect. The paths are either 4 national or early state over 3% or 2 early state over 5. Earlier poster is correct that this is #2 out of 4 for Klobuchat and 1 out of 4 for Harris.

Steyer's already qualified.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2019, 08:24:25 am »

Nina Turner, Krystal Ball, and Shuan King told me that Bernie was back! I didn't know that back meant being in fourth place with single digits in Iowa.
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2019, 08:32:39 am »

I'm old enough to remember when Harris was suddenly a top tier contender after the media foamed at the mouth over a debate performance too.
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(CT) The Free North
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2019, 08:36:19 am »

Ah, so when Buttigieg goes after his opponents people like him more, but when Harris went after Biden, she was "mean" (or Castro for that matter). Funny how that works, huh?

It must be sexism, that's why Warren is in a tie for first

Not really talking about gender.

Yes, it must be racism. From a party who nominated a black guy 8 years ago and whos members members include almost every politically active African American in the country.

Could it be that maybe Kamala is just a crap candidate?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2019, 08:39:04 am »

I dont know why AOC endorsed Sanders, but Sanders is done, Warren is gonna win the nomination. Hopefully, Biden places 3rd in IA
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2019, 08:58:09 am »

Full results here:

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2019/10_21_2019_marignals_pdftxt.pdf

Biden 18%
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 13%
Sanders 9%
Steyer 3%
Gabbard 3%
Harris 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Yang 1%
Booker 1%
O’Rourke 1%
Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Williamson 0%
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Priest of Moloch
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2019, 10:25:59 am »

Beautiful! Thank you Hillary!
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Speaker OneJ
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2019, 10:34:02 am »
« Edited: October 21, 2019, 10:37:32 am by Speaker OneJ »

I think the reason why Buttigieg probably improved upon his numbers post-debate while Harris and Castro dropped was that he didn't go after Warren. Sure, Warren is very well-liked among Democratic voters and is more popular now than Biden himself in favorability but many more voters might just have a stronger affection for Biden because they knew him for so long. Buttigieg smartly avoided this because his numbers could've dropped as well.

Also, I'm not sure if we can draw too many conclusions from this poll due to high amount of undecideds and Buttigieg was already polling around the lower double-digit range from other pollsters.

Here's the change from last poll:



Buttigieg "surged" from the last poll, but the poll was taken in late June/Early July.
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Barron
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« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2019, 10:37:05 am »

I dont know why AOC endorsed Sanders, but Sanders is done, Warren is gonna win the nomination. Hopefully, Biden places 3rd in IA

I pity those who find elections this predictable. Reminder: Biden is now +6 in RCP national average.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2019, 12:07:04 pm »


She might be even higher now, cause I believe this poll was conducted entirely before the controversy broke out. Wink
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King Andrew of House Beshear
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« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2019, 02:05:11 pm »
« Edited: October 22, 2019, 09:10:55 pm by Mark Esperanto »

Can Buttigieg’s campaign just die already. The media hard-on for this guy is insufferable. He does the exact same things Beto was ravaged for when he announced (speaks in platitudes, no experience, no plans). But it’s okay because he speaks Swedish.

Then he goes out and attacks the other candidates with bs talking points (“We were this close to banning assault weapons until you said we should have a mandatory buyback”) and he’s praised for having passion, but when Castro and Harris do it their just mean and nasty. I’ll be happy when Bernie and Warren tag-team this guy out of the running next debate.

Beto is an empty suit running around like a chicken with its head cut off whereas not only does Buttigieg seem to be the real deal, but he’s also clearly the smartest person in the race with the possible exception of Warren (although Buttigieg seems to be the more honest of the two where policy is concerned).

And I’m as pro-gun control as it gets, but mandatory buybacks might be the dumbest ideas I’ve heard on this issue from the Democratic side.  When you say stupid things in a Presidential debate, sometimes you get called out for it.  Beto learned that the hard way.  The one time Harris made a coherent attack against Biden, she got her 15 minutes of fame as flavor of the month...only to blow it in spectacular fashion.  Castro is a C-list candidate at best who got criticized for how he went about his attack on Biden.

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2019, 02:12:12 pm »

How does junk like this count as qualifying but Economist/YouGov and Emerson don't?
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henster
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« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2019, 02:14:49 pm »

I do find it disappointing that Pete seems to have taken Amy K's lane. She is just way more qualified and more prepared to be Pres than a Mayor of a small town. Pete lost statewide race by 25% while Amy routinely wins in landslides I hope in the end voters realize who is the better candidate.
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Pyro
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« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2019, 02:19:36 pm »

Congratulations, President Undecided!
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