James and Peters tied 39.5-39.3

[lfromnj]

https://www.wlns.com/news/michigan/skubick-poll-shows-u-s-senate-race-a-toss-up/

Actually decimals 39.5 to 39.3 so probably trash outside Florida.

[538Electoral]

Go James!

[TML]

Recall how Peters and Land were separated by only one point in two polls conducted in September-October 2013.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Decimals<

[Frenchrepublican]

Recall how Peters and Land were separated by only one point in two polls conducted in September-October 2013.

The difference is that Land ran a truely awful campaign. James, on the other hand has already proved that he is a credible candidate.

[SnowLabrador]

I believe that this race is a tossup. However, if a poll number has decimal points, and this many undecideds, it's probably not reliable. Standing by my prediction of James by a recount margin.

[Matty]

Why does this board treat James so much different than it treated Beto in his senate run?

Both are young candidates wit appeal. James has a good backstory.

Both from states where there is evidence of trends to GOP/dems, respectively.

[Xing]

It'd be interesting to see the Trump/D numbers in this poll. Obviously James is a better candidate than Land, but he is starting with higher name recognition than he did last time, so I don't think he has as much room for growth. Either way, Peters shouldn't sleep at the well. James might be basically Trump with a friendlier-looking face, but that last part is what a lot of people care about.

[Ebsy]

I've never even heard of this firm. Also, the news article is some of the most unprofessionally written garbage I have ever seen from a local outlet.

[Brittain33]

Same poll has Trump approval 39%-45% and Whitmer approval at 26%-33%.

So one way of looking at this is that James is performing at the same level as Trump's approval in the state. I'll buy that.

[Calthrina950]

I've never even heard of this firm. Also, the news article is some of the most unprofessionally written garbage I have ever seen from a local outlet.

Wholeheartedly agree. Many local television outlets are of very poor quality, which is a shame because they are the primary source of information for millions of Americans, on a daily basis. It's just another testament to the overall decline in the media's quality.

[UWS]

Why does this board treat James so much different than it treated Beto in his senate run?

Both are young candidates wit appeal. James has a good backstory.

Both from states where there is evidence of trends to GOP/dems, respectively.

Michigan is already a tossup while Texas will also be a tossup state but only somewhere in the 2020s or 2030s. And one of the main reasons O'Rourke lost his senate bid in Texas is because he called for Trump's impeachment, which surely drove independent voters away from him and surely didn't encourage conservative voters in a red state like Texas to vote for him.

Meanwhile, James supports Donald Trump and Michigan is a more competitive state. And yes, he has a good backstory : served in the military and became a businessman. I think James' hopes lie in Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan (especially with the Warren County) and it will also depend on the turnout of Reagan Democrats that also ensured a victory for Trump in Michigan in 2016.

[Justin Kaminski]

James has a extremely good chance to win this, even if Trump loses Michigan.

[DrScholl]

One of the things that is overlooked about James is that he is the only Republican in recent history to lose Kent County outside of a landslide. A Republican losing what has been a reliable county in a single digit race doesn't suggest much strength. Michigan has shifted away from Republican in the more populated areas which is not going to be helpful to Republicans in the long term.

[lfromnj]

One of the things that is overlooked about James is that he is the only Republican in recent history to lose Kent County outside of a landslide. A Republican losing what has been a reliable county in a single digit race doesn't suggest much strength. Michigan has shifted away from Republican in the more populated areas which is not going to be helpful to Republicans in the long term.

'
And Stabenow is now the 1st Senate Democrat to lose Bay county outside of a landslide. And in 2016 nothing suggested that Michigan even trended towards D's even in the populated areas. Clinton did like .05 points better although that is about a 1.8 point D trend, Macomb county meanwhile Trended like 12 Points R and so did Gennesee and Bay county along with Monroe.  Kent did Trend D by a decent amount along with Ottowa but those two and Washentaw are the only counties to actually have a decent D trend in 2016.

[DrScholl]

One of the things that is overlooked about James is that he is the only Republican in recent history to lose Kent County outside of a landslide. A Republican losing what has been a reliable county in a single digit race doesn't suggest much strength. Michigan has shifted away from Republican in the more populated areas which is not going to be helpful to Republicans in the long term.

'
And Stabenow is now the 1st Senate Democrat to lose Bay county outside of a landslide. And in 2016 nothing suggested that Michigan even trended towards D's even in the populated areas. Clinton did like .05 points better although that is about a 1.8 point D trend, Macomb county meanwhile Trended like 12 Points R and so did Gennesee and Bay county along with Monroe.  Kent did Trend D by a decent amount along with Ottowa but those two and Washentaw are the only counties to actually have a decent D trend in 2016.

Losing a heavily populated county versus losing a lightly populated county is a big difference. The 2018 results showed a continuing Republican trend in small counties, but no improvement elsewhere. But believe what you want to believe.

[Yellowhammer]

One of the things that is overlooked about James is that he is the only Republican in recent history to lose Kent County outside of a landslide. A Republican losing what has been a reliable county in a single digit race doesn't suggest much strength. Michigan has shifted away from Republican in the more populated areas which is not going to be helpful to Republicans in the long term.

'
And Stabenow is now the 1st Senate Democrat to lose Bay county outside of a landslide. And in 2016 nothing suggested that Michigan even trended towards D's even in the populated areas. Clinton did like .05 points better although that is about a 1.8 point D trend, Macomb county meanwhile Trended like 12 Points R and so did Gennesee and Bay county along with Monroe.  Kent did Trend D by a decent amount along with Ottowa but those two and Washentaw are the only counties to actually have a decent D trend in 2016.

Losing a heavily populated county versus losing a lightly populated county is a big difference. The 2018 results showed a continuing Republican trend in small counties, but no improvement elsewhere. But believe what you want to believe.

The most populous county in the state (Wayne) had a decent R trend in 2016 as well.

[lfromnj]

One of the things that is overlooked about James is that he is the only Republican in recent history to lose Kent County outside of a landslide. A Republican losing what has been a reliable county in a single digit race doesn't suggest much strength. Michigan has shifted away from Republican in the more populated areas which is not going to be helpful to Republicans in the long term.

'
And Stabenow is now the 1st Senate Democrat to lose Bay county outside of a landslide. And in 2016 nothing suggested that Michigan even trended towards D's even in the populated areas. Clinton did like .05 points better although that is about a 1.8 point D trend, Macomb county meanwhile Trended like 12 Points R and so did Gennesee and Bay county along with Monroe.  Kent did Trend D by a decent amount along with Ottowa but those two and Washentaw are the only counties to actually have a decent D trend in 2016.

Losing a heavily populated county versus losing a lightly populated county is a big difference. The 2018 results showed a continuing Republican trend in small counties, but no improvement elsewhere. But believe what you want to believe.

The most populous county in the state (Wayne) had a decent R trend in 2016 as well.

Im gonna exclude Wayne for now because its like 50% black and that trend was expected as no D could get Obama numbers.

[Yellowhammer]

One of the things that is overlooked about James is that he is the only Republican in recent history to lose Kent County outside of a landslide. A Republican losing what has been a reliable county in a single digit race doesn't suggest much strength. Michigan has shifted away from Republican in the more populated areas which is not going to be helpful to Republicans in the long term.

'
And Stabenow is now the 1st Senate Democrat to lose Bay county outside of a landslide. And in 2016 nothing suggested that Michigan even trended towards D's even in the populated areas. Clinton did like .05 points better although that is about a 1.8 point D trend, Macomb county meanwhile Trended like 12 Points R and so did Gennesee and Bay county along with Monroe.  Kent did Trend D by a decent amount along with Ottowa but those two and Washentaw are the only counties to actually have a decent D trend in 2016.

Losing a heavily populated county versus losing a lightly populated county is a big difference. The 2018 results showed a continuing Republican trend in small counties, but no improvement elsewhere. But believe what you want to believe.

The most populous county in the state (Wayne) had a decent R trend in 2016 as well.

Im gonna exclude Wayne for now because its like 50% black and that trend was expected as no D could get Obama numbers.

Except that the white suburban parts of the county were the parts that trended most republican, the city of Detroit itself barely did at all.

[Skunk]

Why does this board treat James so much different than it treated Beto in his senate run?

Both are young candidates wit appeal. James has a good backstory.

Both from states where there is evidence of trends to GOP/dems, respectively.

Does it though? Democrats were cheerleaders for Beto and Republicans are cheerleaders for James, some Republicans predicted a Cruz victory by high single digits to low double digits while some Democrats are doing the same for Peters. I don't see what's so different about it.

[lfromnj]

One of the things that is overlooked about James is that he is the only Republican in recent history to lose Kent County outside of a landslide. A Republican losing what has been a reliable county in a single digit race doesn't suggest much strength. Michigan has shifted away from Republican in the more populated areas which is not going to be helpful to Republicans in the long term.

'
And Stabenow is now the 1st Senate Democrat to lose Bay county outside of a landslide. And in 2016 nothing suggested that Michigan even trended towards D's even in the populated areas. Clinton did like .05 points better although that is about a 1.8 point D trend, Macomb county meanwhile Trended like 12 Points R and so did Gennesee and Bay county along with Monroe.  Kent did Trend D by a decent amount along with Ottowa but those two and Washentaw are the only counties to actually have a decent D trend in 2016.

Losing a heavily populated county versus losing a lightly populated county is a big difference. The 2018 results showed a continuing Republican trend in small counties, but no improvement elsewhere. But believe what you want to believe.

Macomb literally has more people than Kent lol.

[DrScholl]

One of the things that is overlooked about James is that he is the only Republican in recent history to lose Kent County outside of a landslide. A Republican losing what has been a reliable county in a single digit race doesn't suggest much strength. Michigan has shifted away from Republican in the more populated areas which is not going to be helpful to Republicans in the long term.

'
And Stabenow is now the 1st Senate Democrat to lose Bay county outside of a landslide. And in 2016 nothing suggested that Michigan even trended towards D's even in the populated areas. Clinton did like .05 points better although that is about a 1.8 point D trend, Macomb county meanwhile Trended like 12 Points R and so did Gennesee and Bay county along with Monroe.  Kent did Trend D by a decent amount along with Ottowa but those two and Washentaw are the only counties to actually have a decent D trend in 2016.

Losing a heavily populated county versus losing a lightly populated county is a big difference. The 2018 results showed a continuing Republican trend in small counties, but no improvement elsewhere. But believe what you want to believe.

Macomb literally has more people than Kent lol.

You mentioned Bay County to counter what I stated about Kent County. I was referring to the 2018 Senate race anyway and not 2016. James didn't carry Macomb County and did much worse than Trump did there. The point about Kent County is that it has long been the largest base of Republican support in the state, yet it flipped in an election that wasn't even a landslide. How is James supposed to win a Senate race while losing a traditionally Republican county? Make that make sense.

[Frenchrepublican]

One of the things that is overlooked about James is that he is the only Republican in recent history to lose Kent County outside of a landslide. A Republican losing what has been a reliable county in a single digit race doesn't suggest much strength. Michigan has shifted away from Republican in the more populated areas which is not going to be helpful to Republicans in the long term.

'
And Stabenow is now the 1st Senate Democrat to lose Bay county outside of a landslide. And in 2016 nothing suggested that Michigan even trended towards D's even in the populated areas. Clinton did like .05 points better although that is about a 1.8 point D trend, Macomb county meanwhile Trended like 12 Points R and so did Gennesee and Bay county along with Monroe.  Kent did Trend D by a decent amount along with Ottowa but those two and Washentaw are the only counties to actually have a decent D trend in 2016.

Losing a heavily populated county versus losing a lightly populated county is a big difference. The 2018 results showed a continuing Republican trend in small counties, but no improvement elsewhere. But believe what you want to believe.

Macomb literally has more people than Kent lol.

You mentioned Bay County to counter what I stated about Kent County. I was referring to the 2018 Senate race anyway and not 2016. James didn't carry Macomb County and did much worse than Trump did there. The point about Kent County is that it has long been the largest base of Republican support in the state, yet it flipped in an election that wasn't even a landslide. How is James supposed to win a Senate race while losing a traditionally Republican county? Make that make sense.

I think that James is the underdog at the moment, but you should stop assuming that every future election will be as much D friendly than 2018 was.

[DrScholl]

One of the things that is overlooked about James is that he is the only Republican in recent history to lose Kent County outside of a landslide. A Republican losing what has been a reliable county in a single digit race doesn't suggest much strength. Michigan has shifted away from Republican in the more populated areas which is not going to be helpful to Republicans in the long term.

'
And Stabenow is now the 1st Senate Democrat to lose Bay county outside of a landslide. And in 2016 nothing suggested that Michigan even trended towards D's even in the populated areas. Clinton did like .05 points better although that is about a 1.8 point D trend, Macomb county meanwhile Trended like 12 Points R and so did Gennesee and Bay county along with Monroe.  Kent did Trend D by a decent amount along with Ottowa but those two and Washentaw are the only counties to actually have a decent D trend in 2016.

Losing a heavily populated county versus losing a lightly populated county is a big difference. The 2018 results showed a continuing Republican trend in small counties, but no improvement elsewhere. But believe what you want to believe.

Macomb literally has more people than Kent lol.

You mentioned Bay County to counter what I stated about Kent County. I was referring to the 2018 Senate race anyway and not 2016. James didn't carry Macomb County and did much worse than Trump did there. The point about Kent County is that it has long been the largest base of Republican support in the state, yet it flipped in an election that wasn't even a landslide. How is James supposed to win a Senate race while losing a traditionally Republican county? Make that make sense.

I think that James is the underdog at the moment, but you should stop assuming that every future election will be as much D friendly than 2018 was.

2018 wasn't even that friendly to Democrats. In most places there was either a regression to the mean or third party votes in 2016 seemingly broke towards Democrats. 2006 was much more of a wave than 2018 because Democrats won in a lot of odd places.

[Frenchrepublican]

One of the things that is overlooked about James is that he is the only Republican in recent history to lose Kent County outside of a landslide. A Republican losing what has been a reliable county in a single digit race doesn't suggest much strength. Michigan has shifted away from Republican in the more populated areas which is not going to be helpful to Republicans in the long term.

'
And Stabenow is now the 1st Senate Democrat to lose Bay county outside of a landslide. And in 2016 nothing suggested that Michigan even trended towards D's even in the populated areas. Clinton did like .05 points better although that is about a 1.8 point D trend, Macomb county meanwhile Trended like 12 Points R and so did Gennesee and Bay county along with Monroe.  Kent did Trend D by a decent amount along with Ottowa but those two and Washentaw are the only counties to actually have a decent D trend in 2016.

Losing a heavily populated county versus losing a lightly populated county is a big difference. The 2018 results showed a continuing Republican trend in small counties, but no improvement elsewhere. But believe what you want to believe.

Macomb literally has more people than Kent lol.

You mentioned Bay County to counter what I stated about Kent County. I was referring to the 2018 Senate race anyway and not 2016. James didn't carry Macomb County and did much worse than Trump did there. The point about Kent County is that it has long been the largest base of Republican support in the state, yet it flipped in an election that wasn't even a landslide. How is James supposed to win a Senate race while losing a traditionally Republican county? Make that make sense.

I think that James is the underdog at the moment, but you should stop assuming that every future election will be as much D friendly than 2018 was.

2018 wasn't even that friendly to Democrats. In most places there was either a regression to the mean or third party votes in 2016 seemingly broke towards Democrats. 2006 was much more of a wave than 2018 because Democrats won in a lot of odd places.

Well, polarization is greater than in 2006, it explains why democrats didn’t pull a lot of upset in odd places, but 2018 was by most standards even more friendly than 2016, they won the congressional vote by a bigger margin, gained more seats in the House....