Wisconsin MULaw poll (Biden +6 ; Sanders +2 ; Warren +1 ; Buttigieg -2)

[pbrower2a]

51% disapproval in frequent repetition implies nearly-certain defeat.

[2016]

If Trump wins Wisconsin in 2020 he is likely to get reelected. He can afford to lose Michigan & Pennsylvania as long as he manages to secure wins in Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona + keep those 1 EV in NE & ME. That would bring him to exact 270 EV.

[Annatar]

One important fact from this poll appears to be that President Trump is hitting his approval numbers in H2H, his approval in the poll is 46% and he manages to get 46% vs sanders and warren although he does worse vs Biden.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

That seems like a realistic / good poll. And shows Wisconsin is in danger, especially with Warren, but we still need Warren or Sanders instead of Biden, but Biden is the safe option and the best option if Trump's approval rise.

[TC 25]

Trump 306, Clinton 232

States in play:
Wisc (10) - Pure Tossup
AZ (11) - Pure Tossup
FL (29) - Tossup tilt Trump?
PA (20) - Tossup tilt D?
MI (16) - Tossup tilt D?

A year out does it come  down to these 5 states?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Trump 306, Clinton 232

States in play:
Wisc (10) - Pure Tossup
AZ (11) - Pure Tossup
FL (29) - Tossup tilt Trump?
PA (20) - Tossup tilt D?
MI (16) - Tossup tilt D?

A year out does it come  down to these 5 states?

I wouldn't write off GA and TX as swing states just yet. While it's probable they will be tilt/lean Trump come November 2020, we can't discount the fact that all polling shows them as complete tossups as of right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump 306, Clinton 232

States in play:
Wisc (10) - Pure Tossup
AZ (11) - Pure Tossup
FL (29) - Tossup tilt Trump?
PA (20) - Tossup tilt D?
MI (16) - Tossup tilt D?

A year out does it come  down to these 5 states?

I wouldn't write off GA and TX as swing states just yet. While it's probable they will be tilt/lean Trump come November 2020, we can't discount the fact that all polling shows them as complete tossups as of right now.

If GA and TX are close on election night (and I agree with your assessment of them) then the Democrat is headed for a solid win.  I'd put NC and maybe IA as more likely to flip than GA and TX.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Baldwin can win in WI, so can Warren

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1187068212401332229

lol what? That's the solid base of Democratic voters that Trump was never going to get anyway. Is he clueless?

Gonna have to go ahead and agree with you there. These are the same people who voted to recall Scott Walker because they were mad at a (totally awful, don't get me wrong) law he signed.