MS: Hickman Analytics: Hood (D) +4 vs. Reeves (R) in internal

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Mississippi Governor by Hickman Analytics on 2019-10-16

Summary: D: 46%, R: 42%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

I enter these to the database, because of the lack of polls in those states ...

It's better than nothing.

[Xing]

Up 4 in an internal isn't terrific, and it's hard to see Hood winning, at this point. Still more likely to win than Beshear, though.

[Calthrina950]

We all know which way the "undecideds" will go. Hood is doomed.

[MT Treasurer]

I enter these to the database, because of the lack of polls in those states ...

It's better than nothing.

Yeah, which is why KY is a Likely D state on the polling map (it will probably remain that way until the election because we usually don’t get a lot of reliable KY polls, unfortunately). Clearly better than entering one non-internal poll showing a tied race.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

We all know which way the "undecideds" will go. Hood is doomed.

There is no such thing as an "undecided" MS voter. In MS white=Republican and black=Democrat. The only question is turnout of these groups.

[Calthrina950]

We all know which way the "undecideds" will go. Hood is doomed.

There is no such thing as an "undecided" MS voter. In MS white=Republican and black=Democrat. The only question is turnout of these groups.

True. Hence, why I said what I said. I put "undecideds" in quotation marks to emphasize that these voters are not actually that. They are for Reeves (or for Hood), and almost all of them are for Reeves.

[OneJ]

We all know which way the "undecideds" will go. Hood is doomed.

There is no such thing as an "undecided" MS voter. In MS white=Republican and black=Democrat. The only question is turnout of these groups.

True. Hence, why I said what I said. I put "undecideds" in quotation marks to emphasize that these voters are not actually that. They are for Reeves (or for Hood), and almost all of them are for Reeves.

I don't doubt most of these "undecided voters" are gonna end up voting for Reeves when all is said and done, but a good chunk of them are black voters according to that Mason-Dixon poll. I'd say it's far from "almost all" going to Reeves instead of Hood.

[IceSpear]

It's better than nothing.

No it isn't.

[ElectionsGuy]

Well between this quality poll and Mason-Dixon, it's Toss-Up/tilt Hood.

[Frenchrepublican]

Well between this quality poll and Mason-Dixon, it's Toss-Up/tilt Hood.

2019 GOV races according to D internal polls

LA -) SAFE D (Edwards leads by 17)
KY -) LIKELY D (Beshear leads by 9)
MS -) LEAN D (Hood leads by 4)


Either these pollsters are geniuses, or they are some of the biggest world morons

[Matty]

Who is more conservative?

JBE or Jim hood?

[Frenchrepublican]

Who is more conservative?

JBE or Jim hood?

Probably Hood.

[Calthrina950]

We all know which way the "undecideds" will go. Hood is doomed.

There is no such thing as an "undecided" MS voter. In MS white=Republican and black=Democrat. The only question is turnout of these groups.

True. Hence, why I said what I said. I put "undecideds" in quotation marks to emphasize that these voters are not actually that. They are for Reeves (or for Hood), and almost all of them are for Reeves.

I don't doubt most of these "undecided voters" are gonna end up voting for Reeves when all is said and done, but a good chunk of them are black voters according to that Mason-Dixon poll. I'd say it's far from "almost all" going to Reeves instead of Hood.

This is a valid point. However, the undecideds, taken as a whole, are not a group that is favorable to Hood. And Hood is already sitting at about the percentage that Mike Espy received last year.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Who is more conservative?

JBE or Jim hood?

They seem to come from the same school of red state Democrat. Probably privately very liberal as evidenced in their plans for education and infrastructure and healthcare but willing to throw irrelevant social issues to the side (abortion and guns) since taking the liberal stance on them does nothing productive in those states

[Calthrina950]

We all know which way the "undecideds" will go. Hood is doomed.

Yeah yeah, muh polarization, these races are Titanium R, whatever.

Calthrina won't ever STFO it seems.

I'm not wrong. And you should know by now that I don't take too kindly to this sort of thing. Won't let it faze me though.

[Calthrina950]

We all know which way the "undecideds" will go. Hood is doomed.

Yeah yeah, muh polarization, these races are Titanium R, whatever.

Calthrina won't ever STFO it seems.

I'm not wrong. And you should know by now that I don't take too kindly to this sort of thing. Won't let it faze me though.

Mmmmmhm.

Yes, yes.

[IceSpear]

We all know which way the "undecideds" will go. Hood is doomed.

Hood has stayed pretty much the same over the past year. Meanwhile, look at the numbers for Reeves as the "undecideds" continue to break...

[Calthrina950]

We all know which way the "undecideds" will go. Hood is doomed.

Hood has stayed pretty much the same over the past year. Meanwhile, look at the numbers for Reeves as the "undecideds" continue to break...

Well, isn't this a surprise? Not! We saw this with Bredesen, Edmondson, Manchin, Heitkamp, etc. last year. Is it possible that Reeves could win by low double digits? If he did, that would really be a blow. The only gubernatorial race where Democrats might come within 5% at this point is Louisiana. The solace for them is that they will complete their conquest of Virginia's government through taking control of the legislature there.