Who will be President on this day in 2030?

[morgieb]

Tucker Carlson or the MyPillow guy, because this timeline is cursed.

[Cassandra]

I'm going to be optimistic and go with AOC (following, say, a Hawley Presidency).

[indietraveler]

If Trumpism is still attached to the republican party then whoever is Biden's VP is the safest guess at this point.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Let's play a game.

Donald Trump - July 2008. A real estate mogul and television celebrity with no real connection to politics whatsoever. Thinking he would be president in 2018 was up to the point of insanity.

Barack Obama - July 2004. A Democratic Senatorial candidate who is such a rising star that he is scheduled to give the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention. Although it was more hopeful than sound, there was already much speculation about a presidential future. Plausible to imagine him president in 2014.

Barack Obama - July 2000. An Illinois State Senator who had just lost a Congressional primary. Very few people even knew who he was, much less that he could be president in 2010.

George W. Bush - July 1996. The Governor of Texas and son of the most recent former president. I believe he was still not among the people mentioned the most as possible presidential candidates, but it would not have been crazy to think he could be president in 2006.

George W. Bush - July 1992. The son of the incument president running for re-election, whose most notable political achievements are to have lost an election to the House of Representatives in 1978 and to advise his father's campaigns. Ah, he also owns the MLB's Texas Rangers. Believing he would be president in 2002 was probably pretty strange, but not a complete folly.

(Just to remain in the 21st century)

[Mister Mets]

This is interesting, given the unusual factors this election. The incumbent President is currently the underdog, and the Democratic challenger is likely to be a one-termer, allowing for a more competitive open election in 2024 than we otherwise would have.

Biden's running mate would probably be the favorite. She could run under favorable circumstances (when her party has had the White House for one term, and would likely be running for reelection in 2028) and there's a non-trivial chance she'd be the nominee if Biden loses in 2020, given the lack of obvious alternatives.

[Spark]

I pray to God it's not Cuomo.

[brucejoel99]

Kamala Devi Harris!

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

No one had heard of Obama in January 1999, let's not forget.

[brucejoel99]

No one had heard of Obama in January 1999, let's not forget.

The voters of the Illinois Senate's 13th district had

[MABA 2020]

Now that Harris is officially the running mate it's even more likely to be her

[Orwell]

No one had heard of Obama in January 1999, let's not forget.

You mean that boy who tried primarying Bobby Rush? He's not going anywhere in politics.

[President Johnson]

No one had heard of Obama in January 1999, let's not forget.

You mean that boy who tried primarying Bobby Rush? He's not going anywhere in politics.

That was in 2000.

[Spark]

Don't sleep on Gov. Beshear!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Don't sleep on Gov. Beshear!

Unless he's in a small primary field, the Cabinet or in Congress by then, the Democratic electorate may well sleep on him. Presidential primaries are becoming harder for governors of states without loads of access to national media markets (typically small states and ones which are further from DC), which is why Bullock, Hickenlooper, Inslee and Patrick failed to break out of the pack. The changes in media dynamics responsible for this are also part of why Cuomo became the face of Democratic responses to COVID-19 despite Connecticut seeing a sharper decline in R.

Even if the primary electorate was as open to his candidacy as they were in the 90s, I suspect Bill Clinton wouldn't have broken out of the pack in today's environment.