Will white Millennials become more Republican when they're middle aged?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Lots of Republicans have claimed this. Strikes me as very wishful thinking.

[IceSpear]

Obviously some will, unless you're one of those people that think Democrats will have a permanent majority in a few decades.

[Politician]

Obviously some will, unless you're one of those people that think Democrats will have a permanent majority in a few decades.

[Gracile]

It's possible, yes, especially if you consider that the ideologies/coalitions of the two major parties could change dramatically in the next few decades.

[Agonized-Statism]

I think it's likely- not because of the theory that people get more conservative as they age, but because the Republican platform will evolve to become more palatable to millennials.

[El Betico]

Now I'm 35. Do you believe that a bunch of people of my age, who were leftists and not so moderate in their university years, now are on the Vox train? No particular gap between being male or female...wht do they have in common? A long period of unemployment and/or being trapped in one gig job after another one. Not sure anyway if the same thing could work in America, I guess it depends on the single place.

[Vosem]

Yes, because political parties in America always adjust to be 50/50 and it's unclear to me that the Republican Party has other places it can improve besides this demographic, but this will have the effect of changing the party rather than changing white Millennials' political opinions.

Now I'm 35. Do you believe that a bunch of people of my age, who were leftist and not so moderate in their university years, now are on the Vox train? No particular gap between being male or female...wht do they have in common? A long period of unemployment and/or being trapped in one gig job after another one. Not sure anyway if the same thing could work in America, I guess it depends from the single place.

I think the perception that people get more conservative as they age is a false one, but I do think there's a real phenomenon where the later in life people experience their political awakening, the more right-wing they tend to be. I'd imagine people voting for the first time coming out for Podemos are on the younger side, and people voting for the first time coming out for Vox are probably older. (Because it is unusual for people to depoliticize -- for most people, once they start voting, they keep doing it -- this explains why older people have turnout so much higher than young people, and why it seems like people get more conservative without observing many concrete examples of this.)

[TML]

If the Republican Party decides to become more like the conservative parties of Europe and Canada by embracing universal health care, accepting the scientific consensus on climate change, etc., this might happen.

[Person Man]

The way any change would happen is if a large amount of non-voters became voters. That's probably the only way that Trump won and perhaps how Obama won.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yes, because their student loan debt will magically disappear, as parents they'll magically figure out how to work two demanding jobs with no work/life balance while raising children, they'll magically find affordable healthcare options, and it turns out that 98% of the worlds climate scientists were really stooges of the socialist new world order after all.

[Kevinstat]

I think one thing that makes it unlikely for there to be a significant shift of Millennials' political stance is how obnoxious the prominent conservative Millennials (Charlie Kirk, Candace Owens) seem to progressives.  Ben Shapiro might also be thrown into this category, but I see some humanity in him.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Did white Xers, Boomers, Silenters, and GIs become more Repbulican as they aged?

[Annatar]

I would link to this post I did some time ago which argues that there already has been a shift, and it may continue, to put it simply if you look at the exit polls, whites aged 30-44 which represent the late Gen X and 1st half of Millennials up to 1986 voted R+17 in 2016. That is a significant shift compared to how those voters were voting relative to the nation a decade ago.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275462.msg5873981#msg5873981

[The_Doctor]

Yes, because the Republican Party of the middle age Millennial generation will be different from the Republican Party of 2020.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes neither party will resemble today's parties after 2028/2032. The only question is will the GOP be proactive in making changes or will it have to be forced on to them after 8-12 years in the political wilderness. I hope its the former and not the latter

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yes, because the Republican Party of the middle age Millennial generation will be different from the Republican Party of 2020.

One can dream.

The GOP will probably need a Texas-sized wake-up call. OTOH, Trump may represent the death of the GOP as we currently know it. The logical conclusion of the social-wedge, white anger sugar high they've been on for decades now.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide. 


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

[Don Vito Corleone]

More Republican than now obviously, but it won't be anywhere near the extent that the "you get more right-wing as you age" people seem to think (Fun fact: Obama won the 85+ vote in 2012, because those people were the Democratic GIs).

[Person Man]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide. 


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

What would be the inverse of this scenario... I'm taking the original conjecture to a new point- what if the Democrats moderate and a lot liberal voters stop showing up?

[OSR stands with Israel]

More Republican than now obviously, but it won't be anywhere near the extent that the "you get more right-wing as you age" people seem to think (Fun fact: Obama won the 85+ vote in 2012, because those people were the Democratic GIs).

Eisenhower both times  , Nixon in 72 and Reagan both times I believe won the GI vote

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide. 


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

What would be the inverse of this scenario... I'm taking the original conjecture to a new point- what if the Democrats moderate and a lot liberal voters stop showing up?

If Republicans don’t adapt they will lose anyway . The only question is will they be forced to adapt by Election defeats or will they proactively adapt

[Person Man]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide. 


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

What would be the inverse of this scenario... I'm taking the original conjecture to a new point- what if the Democrats moderate and a lot liberal voters stop showing up?

If Republicans don’t adapt they will lose anyway . The only question is will they be forced to adapt by Election defeats or will they proactively adapt

What I am talking is if Democrats to LOSE TO TRUMP is if they will see that and "adapt" or if they will have to lose another to "adapt" or if they just double down and eventually win like they did with Bush even when they couldn't beat Bush (much in the way the GOP dealt with Obama).