Why did North Carolina trend D?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Title. I know Trump did badly in Mecklenburg/Wake suburbs, but was that really enough to override the rest of the state, which trended towards him hard? He even gained in some of the Charlotte exurbs.

[lfromnj]

Mostly burbs with a lot of #polarized rurals which did trend R due to black dropoff but prevented any strong R trend there.

[538Electoral]

It only trended D by a very small margin so this is almost irrelevant.

[Frenchrepublican]

It only trended D by a very small margin so this is almost irrelevant.

[Mr. Smith]

Simple, the stat usually votes about 6 points rightwards of VA and 5 points left of Georgia.

The real question is why when VA and GA moved 2 points left that NC didn't follow. The trend here makes more sense than dat swing.

[TDAS04]

Simple, the stat usually votes about 6 points rightwards of VA and 5 points left of Georgia.

The real question is why when VA and GA moved 2 points left that NC didn't follow. The trend here makes more sense than dat swing.

I’m not surprised NC swung right.  I’m somewhat surprised it trended left, but not too much.

Compared to GA and VA, NC seems a bit more more WWC, if that’s the correct term.  GA is blacker, both VA and GA are richer and less rural.

[Arbitrage1980]

Simple, the stat usually votes about 6 points rightwards of VA and 5 points left of Georgia.

The real question is why when VA and GA moved 2 points left that NC didn't follow. The trend here makes more sense than dat swing.

I’m not surprised NC swung right.  I’m somewhat surprised it trended left, but not too much.

Compared to GA and VA, NC seems a bit more more WWC, if that’s the correct term.  GA is blacker, both VA and GA are richer and less rural.

NC is now a purple state due to the influx of white liberals from the northeast who move to NC for lower taxes and cost of living but still vote for awful Democratic policies. Mecklenburg and Wake counties are example of this (VA has this dynamic on steroids).

The reason Trump won NC by nearly 4% was because rural and exurban areas make up a high % of the state's population.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Simple, the stat usually votes about 6 points rightwards of VA and 5 points left of Georgia.

The real question is why when VA and GA moved 2 points left that NC didn't follow. The trend here makes more sense than dat swing.

I’m not surprised NC swung right.  I’m somewhat surprised it trended left, but not too much.

Compared to GA and VA, NC seems a bit more more WWC, if that’s the correct term.  GA is blacker, both VA and GA are richer and less rural.

The other big difference is that most transplants to NC are now more similar to those moving to South Carolina and Florida than those moving to Virginia and Georgia.  Exit polling showed that recent transplants to North Carolina voted more like native North Carolinians than the previous "generation" of transplants.

[nclib]

A factor is NC's Dem trend (even if very small) is we have a gerrymandered polarizing legislature that governs this center-right state from the far-right.

[Arbitrage1980]

Simple, the stat usually votes about 6 points rightwards of VA and 5 points left of Georgia.

The real question is why when VA and GA moved 2 points left that NC didn't follow. The trend here makes more sense than dat swing.

I’m not surprised NC swung right.  I’m somewhat surprised it trended left, but not too much.

Compared to GA and VA, NC seems a bit more more WWC, if that’s the correct term.  GA is blacker, both VA and GA are richer and less rural.

The other big difference is that most transplants to NC are now more similar to those moving to South Carolina and Florida than those moving to Virginia and Georgia.  Exit polling showed that recent transplants to North Carolina voted more like native North Carolinians than the previous "generation" of transplants.

Interesting. Is there data behind this? I thought that northern transplants to NC were liberal, as they are the college educated professionas working in Charlotte and Research Triangle.

SC and FL attract conservative retired people. And the west side of Florida has ot of conservative/moderate Midwestern white transplants.

GA is shocking and worrisome. The suburban Atlanta counties of Cobb and Gwinnett have gone from 90% to around 45% white in just a generation, resulting in Hillary winning both counties (first Dem to win them since Carter 1976). And Abrams outperformed Hillary in the governor race. With both Senate seats in the state up next year, I'm definitely sweating GA.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Simple, the stat usually votes about 6 points rightwards of VA and 5 points left of Georgia.

The real question is why when VA and GA moved 2 points left that NC didn't follow. The trend here makes more sense than dat swing.

I’m not surprised NC swung right.  I’m somewhat surprised it trended left, but not too much.

Compared to GA and VA, NC seems a bit more more WWC, if that’s the correct term.  GA is blacker, both VA and GA are richer and less rural.

The other big difference is that most transplants to NC are now more similar to those moving to South Carolina and Florida than those moving to Virginia and Georgia.  Exit polling showed that recent transplants to North Carolina voted more like native North Carolinians than the previous "generation" of transplants.

Interesting. Is there data behind this? I thought that northern transplants to NC were liberal, as they are the college educated professionas working in Charlotte and Research Triangle.

SC and FL attract conservative retired people. And the west side of Florida has ot of conservative/moderate Midwestern white transplants.

GA is shocking and worrisome. The suburban Atlanta counties of Cobb and Gwinnett have gone from 90% to around 45% white in just a generation, resulting in Hillary winning both counties (first Dem to win them since Carter 1976). And Abrams outperformed Hillary in the governor race. With both Senate seats in the state up next year, I'm definitely sweating GA.

A lot of NC's migration is now retirement-focused in similar ways to how South Carolina and Florida have.  A lot of my family is from Raleigh, and I'd say that the Raleigh metro (especially Raleigh, rather than Durham and Chapel Hill) hasn't really changed that dramatically in cultural terms in the way metros have in Georgia and Virginia have either.

From the exit poll:
Born in NC (52%): Trump +13, Burr +15, McCrory +9
Moved to NC before 2006 (36%): Clinton +10, Ross +12, Cooper +16
Moved to NC since 2006 (12%): Trump +4, Burr +10, Cooper +2
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/north-carolina/president


Also, I would be remissed if I did not say that Republicans need to do a much better job reaching out to growing minority communities in places like metro Atlanta.  And figures like Trump don't help.

[sg0508]

Any cities with major growth from young voter influx is likely to trend the state Democratic.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

The whole state is trending D. I expect the state to vote D this year if Democrats win.