IA-Civiqs/ISU: Warren 28, Buttigieg 20, Sanders 18, Biden 12

[SN2903]

It is becoming pretty clear that the pollsters are having a lot of trouble modeling what the Democratic primary electorate is going to look like.

Yep.

[Sorenroy]

Sample size of 598 likely voters, conducted October 18th to 22nd. Change is from their previous poll conducted one month ago.

Warren — 28% (+4%)
Buttigieg — 20% (+7%)
Sanders — 18% (+2%)
Biden — 12% (-4%)
Klobuchar — 4% (+1%)
Harris — 3% (-2%)
Steyer — 3% (+1%)
Gabbard — 2% (-2%)
Yang — 2% (-1%)
Booker — 1% (-1%)
O'Rourke — 1% (-1%)
Bennet — 1% (+1%)
Delaney — 0% (±0)
Castro — 0% (±0)
Williamson — 0% (-1%)
Bullock — 0% (±0)
Ryan — 0% (-1%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Interesting that Warren is performing equally well with both white and non-white voters.  She leading among both groups in both 1st and 2nd choice.  (The poll is only 9% non-white, so I’m sure the MoE is huge.)

She’s also leading among both genders, all education groups, and all age groups except 18-34 (where she is 2nd to Sanders).

[Yellowhammer]

Anyone remember all the "Biden is inevitable" takes?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is well positioned to be nominee, IA is a tossup and if Biden wins IA, he will win SC

[Grassroots]

Buttigieg, at the rate he's surging at, could win Iowa. Big if true.

[Hollywood]

Biden is well positioned to be nominee, IA is a tossup and if Biden wins IA, he will win SC

'
If Biden wins Iowa, I'll literally eat my sock after a ten hour hike.  Biden "was" well positioned to be the nominee, but won't due to NickG's analysis of the polling data.   

Interesting that Warren is performing equally well with both white and non-white voters.  She leading among both groups in both 1st and 2nd choice.  (The poll is only 9% non-white, so I’m sure the MoE is huge.)

She’s also leading among both genders, all education groups, and all age groups except 18-34 (where she is 2nd to Sanders).

This was evident back in August.  Everyone over 34 should be going to Biden.  Minorities should be going to Harris.  High School educated voters should be going to Biden.  This illustrates to me that a Warren that wins Iowa, will likely win the next three states.  Maybe Sanders wins NH.  Maybe. 

I'm almost ready to lock this indigenous people's pretender as the Democrat nominee.

[Mr. Illini]

Pete's ground game must be incredible in Iowa. He has been so far ahead of his national average in every poll I have seen.

[Dr. Arch]

-rubs eyes- What???

[CookieDamage]

Lmao, complete trash

🙄

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lmao, complete trash

Rub eyes, What?😕😩😞😖

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is becoming pretty clear that the pollsters are having a lot of trouble modeling what the Democratic primary electorate is going to look like.

Yep.

Biden is a sloth and is sleepy Joe

[eric82oslo]

It is becoming pretty clear that the pollsters are having a lot of trouble modeling what the Democratic primary electorate is going to look like.

Yep.

Biden is a sloth and is sleepy Joe

Calling him a sloth is an extreme insult to all the sloths of the world for sure. Joe Biden doesn't even go to the toilet every second week.