MS: SurveyMonkey/NBC News: Reeves (R) +7 vs. Hood (D)

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Mississippi Governor by SurveyMonkey/NBC News on 2019-10-22

Summary: D: 40%, R: 47%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

They also polled other Southern states like LA, but I can’t find the results from those ...

[Tender Branson]

9% would vote for the 2 third-party candidates, which makes this poll a joke ...

[MT Treasurer]

These guys were very D-friendly in 2018, so really not a good poll for Hood.

[Calthrina950]

These guys were very D-friendly in 2018, so really not a good poll for Hood.

This is just more confirmation that Hood is doomed, as he was from the very start.

[Xing]

SurveyMonkey isn't exactly a great pollster, but the margin actually looks pretty plausible.

[Tender Branson]

Can anyone from the USA check this page if there are links for state results ?

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/nbc-news-surveymonkey-poll-results/85-c5cfebef-23e0-43d4-939c-a7e021c9a509

Can’t access this page from Europe ...

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I would say Hood made a mistake by running for Gov, but given the results out of LA he most likely wasn't going to be reelected as AG anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R

[OneJ]

The sample is only 22% Black? Really?

[Frenchrepublican]

Even if SurveyMonkey is not the best pollster in town these numbers are clearly plausible

[President Johnson]

Likely Republican, and closer to safe than lean.

Prediction: Reeves wins 54-43%

[Adam Griffin]

The sample is only 22% Black? Really?

Just for reference, the 2015 primary was around 34% black, the 2016 presidential primary was 29% black and the 2018 general was 32% black. I think an average of those 3 would be a reasonable expectation for overall turnout (31.7%).

I'm not sure of the exact figures for the 2015 general, but it's hard to see Robert Gray of all people winning nearly 20% of the white vote (which is what would be mathematically required with a 22% black electorate going 9:1 in his favor).

Of course, for Hood to get 40% in a poll with a 22% black sample, the white share of the vote may be out of wack, too (assuming 85% of blacks in the poll support Hood, that'd require 27% of the non-black vote for Hood as well). Granted, Hood needs around 30% of the white vote to have a shot, so who knows.

[SnowLabrador]

SurveyMonkey is very unreliable, and I highly doubt that the third-party share will be 9%. But the two-party vote shares look about right.

[OneJ]

The sample is only 22% Black? Really?

Just for reference, the 2015 primary was around 34% black, the 2016 presidential primary was 29% black and the 2018 general was 32% black. I think an average of those 3 would be a reasonable expectation for overall turnout (31.7%).

I'm not sure of the exact figures for the 2015 general, but it's hard to see Robert Gray of all people winning nearly 20% of the white vote (which is what would be mathematically required with a 20% black electorate going 9:1 in his favor).

Of course, for Hood to get 40% in a poll with a 22% black sample, the white share of the vote may be out of wack, too (assuming 85% of blacks in the poll support Hood, that'd require 27% of the non-black vote for Hood as well). Granted, Hood needs around 30% of the white vote to have a shot, so who knows.

Great point Adam.

[Adam Griffin]

The sample is only 22% Black? Really?

Just for reference, the 2015 primary was around 34% black, the 2016 presidential primary was 29% black and the 2018 general was 32% black. I think an average of those 3 would be a reasonable expectation for overall turnout (31.7%).

I'm not sure of the exact figures for the 2015 general, but it's hard to see Robert Gray of all people winning nearly 20% of the white vote (which is what would be mathematically required with a 20% black electorate going 9:1 in his favor).

Of course, for Hood to get 40% in a poll with a 22% black sample, the white share of the vote may be out of wack, too (assuming 85% of blacks in the poll support Hood, that'd require 27% of the non-black vote for Hood as well). Granted, Hood needs around 30% of the white vote to have a shot, so who knows.

Great point Adam.

And I probably could've simplified it to just this: it's not uncommon in the Deep South for polls to underestimate black turnout and overestimate white D support, but often, the two discrepancies end up cancelling each other out in the actual election. I would be surprised if Hood is at 40% come Election Day, but a 7-point margin isn't necessarily out of the equation.