LA GOV (JMC) JBE leads 48/46
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  LA GOV (JMC) JBE leads 48/46
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Author Topic: LA GOV (JMC) JBE leads 48/46  (Read 4140 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: October 28, 2019, 04:07:53 PM »
« edited: October 28, 2019, 04:26:16 PM by Frenchrepublican »


Entire crosstabs : https://t.co/RLUxP4ckyl

Pretty much where I expected the race to be. It will be very close

Trump approval is only 52/41, which seems quite low, maybe democrats are over-sampled

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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2019, 04:15:14 PM »

Wait til Trump holds a few rallies and that 6% goes for Rispone
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2019, 04:17:44 PM »

Wait til Trump holds a few rallies and that 6% goes for Rispone

More blacks than whites are undecided. This is actually a pretty good poll for JBE, definitely shows a tossups race when I had it at lean R. Leads 50-47 w/leaners.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2019, 04:30:47 PM »

Wait til Trump holds a few rallies and that 6% goes for Rispone

More blacks than whites are undecided. This is actually a pretty good poll for JBE, definitely shows a tossups race when I had it at lean R. Leads 50-47 w/leaners.

It's a very small difference (7% / 5%) and you don't know how these whites are leaning. Are they white liberals in NOLA ? ; or are they Abraham voters who are still trying to make up their mind ?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2019, 04:31:23 PM »

Wait til Trump holds a few rallies and that 6% goes for Rispone

Why would the undecided black vote go to Rispone?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2019, 04:32:50 PM »

It will be relatively close but probably no cigar for the GOP
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Politician
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2019, 04:36:35 PM »

It will be relatively close but probably no cigar for the GOP
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Cinemark
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2019, 04:36:57 PM »

Those undecideds make me worried, but its certainly not a bad poll for Edwards.
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Skye
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2019, 04:46:42 PM »

Looks like a dead heat. Edwards can certainly lose.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2019, 04:50:57 PM »

Maybe Trump is actually that unpopular Tongue
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Pericles
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2019, 05:03:25 PM »

Yeah this is a Tossup not Lean R.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2019, 05:27:27 PM »

Edwards wins 51-49.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2019, 05:41:24 PM »

Wait til Trump holds a few rallies and that 6% goes for Rispone

More blacks than whites are undecided. This is actually a pretty good poll for JBE, definitely shows a tossups race when I had it at lean R. Leads 50-47 w/leaners.

It's a very small difference (7% / 5%) and you don't know how these whites are leaning. Are they white liberals in NOLA ? ; or are they Abraham voters who are still trying to make up their mind ?

Probably the latter, but when pushed in this poll, Edwards gains a point and Rispone is stagnant with whites. Lets say Edwards loses undecided's 80-20, and wins all of the black undecideds. Then, he leads 51-49. By no means definitive for either candidate, but if JBE can finish strong he can win. I am moving it to tilt r.
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2016
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2019, 05:53:13 PM »

The Trendlines in General do not look good for JBE.
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McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2019, 05:57:51 PM »

I hope Trump holds a rally in Jefferson Parish. I'd go.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2019, 06:01:40 PM »

Red avs are in denial. JBE can certainly still win, but he has to work harder than Rispone. 
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2019, 06:24:49 PM »

Not a bad place to be if Rispone.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2019, 06:27:32 PM »

Tilt D
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2019, 07:07:08 PM »

Remember when Atlas thought this race was Likely/Safe D? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
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OneJ
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2019, 08:22:23 PM »

Yes, blacks in this poll are slightly more likely to be undecided than whites but remember that there are more white people than black people. Tongue This thing here is going to be super tight though.
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McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero
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« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2019, 08:30:50 PM »

Remember when Atlas thought this race was Likely/Safe D? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
I remember when I thought this race was safe D.
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Gracile
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2019, 08:38:06 PM »

Red avs are in denial. JBE can certainly still win, but he has to work harder than Rispone. 
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2019, 08:50:23 PM »

Remember when Atlas thought this race was Likely/Safe D? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
I remember when I thought this race was safe D.

Just goes to show how much good President Trump has done for our country and how crazy the Democrat Party has gotten!
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Xing
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« Reply #23 on: October 28, 2019, 11:27:02 PM »

Yikes, not great for JBE. Still a Toss-Up, but if he can't poll above 50% consistently in November, I'd definitely give the edge to Rispone.
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Pericles
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2019, 12:08:42 AM »

Yikes, not great for JBE. Still a Toss-Up, but if he can't poll above 50% consistently in November, I'd definitely give the edge to Rispone.

Tbf Louisiana doesn't seem to have the same polling phenomena other solid R states have where Democrats only get the percentage they're polling and it seems it is effectively Republican plus undecided. In 2014 Landrieu got 3% more than her RCP average for the jungle primary and then the polls overestimated Cassidy's margin for the runoff by 8.3% (and underestimated Landrieu's vote share by 7.2%). I think the polls will be pretty accurate for this election then, rather than for races like KY where I expect the polls will underrate Bevin by quite a few points.
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