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December 07, 2019, 10:43:55 pm
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 45950 times)
JerryArkansas
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« on: October 29, 2019, 06:20:01 am »
« edited: October 29, 2019, 03:35:13 pm by JerryArkansas »

[Labour just confirmed they're voting for it, so it is on.  I'll change the date once it's worked out today.  Could be either the 9th or 12th.

Here is a link to the BBC article. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-50221856

Edit, since it looks like its set save drama in the lords.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2019, 06:34:06 am »

Hmmmmmmm..a hastily called election where early polls indicate the Conservatives will win in a landslide and have a shot at getting over 400 seats.  Never seen this play before.
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DaWN
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2019, 06:42:31 am »

It's actually a United Kingdom General Election, as Northern Ireland will also participate and we don't call them parliamentary elections. Otherwise spot on.
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Cassius
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2019, 06:56:27 am »

So.

Tories will start off with the 10 point lead or so. Johnson will start bumbling his way around the country. Hell find himself on the walkabout in Peterborough/Canterbury/Lincoln/Somesuch Place. A large concerned citizen will then waddle up to him and ask whether hes ever had to clean up his own mothers piss. Hell mumble and stumble on camera which will be all over the news/social media. Labour will then pull even as the Tory vote erodes and Labour consolidates some of the anti-Tory vote.

Result: Labour minority
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Zinneke
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2019, 07:04:30 am »

How likely Tories get rinsed in Cornwall, Norfolk, London, and Scotland? Enough to lose any chance of a majority despite 10 point lead?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2019, 07:19:27 am »

How likely Tories get rinsed in Cornwall, Norfolk, London, and Scotland? Enough to lose any chance of a majority despite 10 point lead?
unlikely, remote, possible, possible
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2019, 07:36:26 am »

So.

Tories will start off with the 10 point lead or so. Johnson will start bumbling his way around the country. Hell find himself on the walkabout in Peterborough/Canterbury/Lincoln/Somesuch Place. A large concerned citizen will then waddle up to him and ask whether hes ever had to clean up his own mothers piss. Hell mumble and stumble on camera which will be all over the news/social media. Labour will then pull even as the Tory vote erodes and Labour consolidates some of the anti-Tory vote.

Result: Labour minority


I wish gambling was legal or possible through this site.

You are out of your mind if you think Labour is winning a minority government.

A hung parliament is the absolute best anyone can hope for.

Im an American so I dont have a dog in the fight but if I was a Brit, Id be a moderate Labour voter (think Blair) but one who supports leave. I think Corbyn is horrific. But then again I think the Tories Brexit deal is awful as well, so its a lose lose all around.

I think youre looking at a result approximately:

Conservative 340
Labour 200
Liberal Democrat 50
Brexit 5
Independent 16
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Cassius
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2019, 08:04:38 am »

So.

Tories will start off with the 10 point lead or so. Johnson will start bumbling his way around the country. Hell find himself on the walkabout in Peterborough/Canterbury/Lincoln/Somesuch Place. A large concerned citizen will then waddle up to him and ask whether hes ever had to clean up his own mothers piss. Hell mumble and stumble on camera which will be all over the news/social media. Labour will then pull even as the Tory vote erodes and Labour consolidates some of the anti-Tory vote.

Result: Labour minority


I wish gambling was legal or possible through this site.

You are out of your mind if you think Labour is winning a minority government.

A hung parliament is the absolute best anyone can hope for.

Im an American so I dont have a dog in the fight but if I was a Brit, Id be a moderate Labour voter (think Blair) but one who supports leave. I think Corbyn is horrific. But then again I think the Tories Brexit deal is awful as well, so its a lose lose all around.

I think youre looking at a result approximately:

Conservative 340
Labour 200
Liberal Democrat 50
Brexit 5
Independent 16


Put me down for Burlington Bertie 100/30 on a Labour minority Wink

On a serious note, granted, if the current polls are correct (and note there is some variation between the polling companies, with the Tory lead bouncing around between 3-15 points) a Labour minority is unlikely. However, my somewhat facetious post above was a synecdoche for that fact that polls can easily change in the campaign, as of course they did in 2017, when the Tories blew a 20 point lead over Labour (which was considered even less of a threat back then than it is now). Whilst Im sure Johnson, Swinson, the Media punditry class and galaxy brain psephologists would love for the election to polarize around the issue of leaving the EU, there are other issues out there, and most of those are not favourable  to the Tories.

The Tories have several big issues which I think will harm them significantly in the campaign. Firstly, they continue to be weighed down by the baggage of austerity, and no matter how much money they promise to spend to reverse it, they will always be outbid by Labour, who did this very effectively in 2017. I think if Corbyn and Labour roll out a similar manifesto to the one they did last time, this will be helpful in consolidating the anti-Tory vote.

Secondly, whilst hes not quite as bad as Theresa May (who had the wit and charisma of my left shoe), I do not think Johnson will perform well on the campaign trail and I think he will be liable to get embroiled in embarrassing imbroglios similar to the one I mentioned in my previous post. Whilst he had this reputation as this great, charismatic campaigner when he was Mayor of London, I think the crucial thing in his favour was that there was, relatively speaking, a lot of goodwill for him (which has since evaporated), and he was running for a Mickey Mouse position with comparatively little power. Nothing I have seen of him over the last couple of years makes me believe that he will be able to stand up to scrutiny in a general election campaign.

Thirdly, unlike in the last election when the Tories largely consolidated the pro-Brexit vote and had no significant opposition to their right, in this election the Brexit party will be a very real problem. They may not be polling at 20% anymore, but even if they get half of that that will cause serious problems for the Tories. I was looking at the Scottish polls, and I noted that if you put the Tories and the Brexit party together (and I assume the Brexit party vote has come largely from the Tories in Scotland) then the Tories would be in the same place votes wise as they were in 2017. Of course, theyd still probably lose seats, as the SNP have also risen in the polls, but vote splitting between the Tories and the Brexit party will make that situation much worse. This applies to all of the country, not just Scotland, although I picked that out because it shows how the Brexit party can negatively impact the Tories even in fairly remainy type areas.

I just dont believe the polls will stay in their current position - I think the Tories will bleed support and that Labour will once again manage to consolidate some of the anti-Tory vote, although probably not to the same extent as in 2017, which potentially opens the possibility of a Labour minority, of the Tories lose a significant number of seats and Labour either tread water or make some modest gains.
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2019, 08:05:27 am »

There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2019, 08:15:54 am »

I really hope Farage gets a seat this time. Hell be tempted to run in a Labour Leave constituency but thats not the right move. I think hes got conviction, believes in his cause and unlike his friend Trump - isnt a fraud
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HuskofCorn
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2019, 08:25:39 am »

I think hes got conviction, believes in his cause and unlike his friend Trump - isnt a fraud
LMAO
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Zinneke
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2019, 08:28:18 am »

There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.

Will this help Labour or Tories?
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2019, 08:31:05 am »

There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.

Will this help Labour or Tories?

No.

It does help the Lib Dems, who had previously selected a follower of Lutfur Rahman as their candidate there, but probably not enough to matter very much.
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PoliticalShelter
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2019, 08:35:14 am »


Could end up being neither as its possible that Kensington could turn into a 3 way race in this election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2019, 08:54:59 am »

It seems to me the key issue here are the size and nature of the LAB-LDEM-Green tactical voting versus CON-BXP tactical voting.  The way these tactial voting goes will determine if this is NOM or some CON majority of unknown size.   One thing to note is that due to the Brexit issue I believe LDEM would have a lot more financial resources this around versus previous elections.   
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2019, 09:07:44 am »

Hopefully we see a humiliating defeat for Comrade Corbyn and a return to Blairism for Labour.
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cp
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2019, 09:30:42 am »


[snip]

On a serious note, granted, if the current polls are correct (and note there is some variation between the polling companies, with the Tory lead bouncing around between 3-15 points) a Labour minority is unlikely. However, my somewhat facetious post above was a synecdoche for that fact that polls can easily change in the campaign, as of course they did in 2017, when the Tories blew a 20 point lead over Labour (which was considered even less of a threat back then than it is now). Whilst Im sure Johnson, Swinson, the Media punditry class and galaxy brain psephologists would love for the election to polarize around the issue of leaving the EU, there are other issues out there, and most of those are not favourable  to the Tories.

This is my read, too. There's no doubt Labour is starting further behind and with more baggage than they had in 2017, but the same is true of the Tories and then some. Add to that the spoiler factor of the Brexit Party, the (high, I think) likelihood of tactical voting by non-Tory/Brexit parties, and the relative campaigning abilities of the respective party leaders and I think there is far more likelihood of a pro-Labour upset than a pro-Tory status quo.

I don't expect there to be much movement in the polls for a while, though. If an anti-Tory result is what comes about, it will only start to materialize in the final few weeks of the campaign. The first month or so will be a kind of unofficial 'primary' campaign for which party gets to be the primary opposition to the Tories; this is rather like how the NDP/Liberals fought it out in August/September of the 2015 GE.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2019, 09:35:40 am »

This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election. Boris has been campaigning more or less since he entered govt, and the only thing the guy is actually good at is running a campaign/getting people to believe his lies and vote for him. He won in London after all as a Tory, and I know that was a different time  but...

So, lets engage in a little though experiment that I ran last night. Lets take the 2017 election results (a 'normal' party breakdown) and the 2019 elections results (a 'brexit' focused breakdown) by consistency into a spreadsheet. On one  side we will have the Tories, UKIP, and Brexit - this will be called the Leave block. On the  other side we will have Labour, Lib-Dems, SNP, Greens, PC, and CHUK - this will be referred to as the  opposition. Add up each of their vote shares in each constituency for each election. Ignore NI because there are no 2019 numbers for that and it's elections are weird. Lets be sure to apply some weight to the opposition numbers, say a multiplier of .85 on their result in each seat to account for the naturally inefficient vote splitting between SNP/Lab/Remain forces. Now, lets weight each result (2017 and 2019) by 50% and add them together to see what the seat breakdown is.

We get a total Leave Block seat count of around 345-350. This thought experiment does not predict seat outcomes, but I think it is a good indicator of a overall total. Boris has been chasing the metaphorical dragon of the leave-labour seats and even if he gets just a bit it will be more than enough to counter losses in Scotland, London, the London bedroom communities, and various urban regions throughout the country.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2019, 10:24:51 am »

This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election. Boris has been campaigning more or less since he entered govt, and the only thing the guy is actually good at is running a campaign/getting people to believe his lies and vote for him. He won in London after all as a Tory, and I know that was a different time  but...

On each occasion (2008 and 2012) he actually performed a bit less well than polls predicted.

(and his personal popularity was greater, at the very least he was less toxic to non-Tories than now)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2019, 11:11:42 am »

This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election. Boris has been campaigning more or less since he entered govt, and the only thing the guy is actually good at is running a campaign/getting people to believe his lies and vote for him. He won in London after all as a Tory, and I know that was a different time  but...

On each occasion (2008 and 2012) he actually performed a bit less well than polls predicted.

(and his personal popularity was greater, at the very least he was less toxic to non-Tories than now)

I'm not sure if under/overpreforming actually matters here. If you are a member of one party, and you are able to convince the stronghold of another party (less so during the period in question, but still applicable) to vote you in, you have already succeeded. You kinda confirmed my point there, Boris is great at crafting personas to appeal to whatever demographic he needs to win, be it more 'liberal' Londoners or Brexit-voting northerners. He's good at making you think he's appealing and on your side if you are the target, even though deep down he is still the same old rotting Boris Johnson.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2019, 11:15:26 am »

This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election.

And sorry, but this is a ridiculous statement.

Those elections were basically *nothing* but a glorified opinion poll on Brexit (this tendency being all the greater due to their essential meaninglessness)

Whatever happens in the coming GE, those hoping for that yet again are likely to be disappointed.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2019, 11:27:37 am »

This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election.

And sorry, but this is a ridiculous statement.

Those elections were basically *nothing* but a glorified opinion poll on Brexit (this tendency being all the greater due to their essential meaninglessness)

Whatever happens in the coming GE, those hoping for that yet again are likely to be disappointed.

Especially as it seems Johnson's gamble that Remainer Tories would still back him and a Harder Brexit over Corbyn seems to have worked.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2019, 11:29:24 am »

How likely Tories get rinsed in Cornwall, Norfolk, London, and Scotland? Enough to lose any chance of a majority despite 10 point lead?

They'll be decimated in Scotland and emaciated in some of their London seats. That should be enough to make a majority very tight, although how well they do in Labour-Leave constituencies in the north will probably determine the election. I certainly don't think the Tories should be as eager for an election as they seem.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2019, 11:42:46 am »

There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.

Will this help Labour or Tories?

To the extent it helps either, presumably the Tories, because the ultra-Remainer typically Tory voters who voted Labour as a backlash against Victoria Borwick in 2017 will mostly vote for him, and Labour can't win Kensington without them. In extremis, maybe he could win the seat through the middle. I don't know enough about the Tory candidate to say; if she's a strong Leaver, Gyimah has a chance. She has apparently stumbled around totally unwinnable seats for the last couple of elections (South Down in 2015 and South Shields in 2017), so she may just be loyal footsoldier type.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2019, 12:27:44 pm »

Only tabled Amendments selected today for a commons vote concern the election date, no 16/17, no EU nationals, no future vote system changes, no mass postal ballots.
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