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December 07, 2019, 08:53:50 am
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Author Topic: Portugal's politics and elections  (Read 181492 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #1750 on: November 23, 2019, 08:45:49 am »

JKM abstained on a pro-Palestinian vote, against Livre's leadership/manifesto and woke Twitter, her only voters, who are "cancelling" her. That was fast.

Yeah, just read about that. On twitter her supporters are really throwing her under the bus, while IL twitter supporters, and other rightwing twitter users, are supporting her, the irony of this. The split between her and Rui Tavares' Livre is developing quite fast. Here's Livre' tweet hammering JKM abstention vote:


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The position of LIVRE on Palestine has been clear since the party was founded: of the autonomy of the territory and of the recognition of the state of Palestine.

The text presented by the PCP takes a favorable position from the direction of the LIVRE party.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1751 on: November 23, 2019, 10:08:58 am »

The Joacine-Palestine affair seems to be escalating quite fast:

Joacine Katar-Moreira is, according to RTP, quite surprised with the press release from Livre condemning her abstention vote regarding the Israeli missile strikes against Gaza and the Israeli settlements. Her adviser says she is in "reflection" and will respond to the party's position later today, tomorrow or Monday.

Livre party' leadership team, at the same time, are saying that Joacine has not responded to any telephone calls, text messages and emails made by the party since yesterday afternoon.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1752 on: November 24, 2019, 08:09:29 am »

Palestine-Joacine affair - Could a split between JKM and Livre be in the making?

In statements to Observador radio, Joacine Katar Moreira accused the Livre party of not supporting her, that the communications problems between her and the party leadership aren't new and that she was elected alone, meaning that her party was never a factor.

Both Rui Tavares, the "de facto" leader of Livre, and JKM were present in a dinner with almost 100 Livre supporters to celebrate the 6th anniversary of the party, but the mood was very tense. The party will have an assembly this Sunday, where this affair will be discussed.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1753 on: November 24, 2019, 08:49:37 am »
« Edited: November 24, 2019, 11:13:46 am by Mike88 »

Update in the CDS and PSD leadership races:

CDS has finally a real candidate in the race. João Almeida, current MP from Aveiro, announced his candidacy for the party leadership. He becomes the third candidate to announce his candidacy. The other two are basically unknowns party members from local branches of the party. The party will hold a national congress in January 2020 to elect an new leadership.


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CDS-PP: João Almeida is a candidate for the CDS leadership

In the PSD, the 3 candidates for the leadership made speeches in a forum conducted by the PSD youth wing. In that forum, Rio refused to enter in a boxing match with Costa and even with his internal adversaries, and that he wants to be an opposition that, if the government does the right thing, should congratulate them and that being always negative and bitter is a sign of weakness. Miguel Pinto Luz criticized the current state of the PSD and its lack of ambition. He said that Rio didn't unite the party, but also lashed out against Montenegro accusing him of being all negative by always saying no to the government, without thinking about the national interest.


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How Rio, Pinto Luz and Montenegro attacked and defended in the first round of the primaries:

But Luís Montenegro intervention was the one that created more tension. In his speech he criticized Rio for his weak leadership and for creating party rules, like membership fees payments, that are more complicated than opening a bank account. However, his speech wasn't very well received by many JSD members with many accusing Montenegro of a lack of ethics for always being negative towards Rio and of damaging the party's prospects.

The PSD leadership election is to be held on 11 January 2020, with a second round, if necessary, on 18 January.
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vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #1754 on: November 24, 2019, 11:57:49 am »

JKM abstained on a pro-Palestinian vote, against Livre's leadership/manifesto and woke Twitter, her only voters, who are "cancelling" her. That was fast.
Do you have a link to how each MP voted? Curious to see
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Mike88
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« Reply #1755 on: November 24, 2019, 03:13:40 pm »

JKM abstained on a pro-Palestinian vote, against Livre's leadership/manifesto and woke Twitter, her only voters, who are "cancelling" her. That was fast.
Do you have a link to how each MP voted? Curious to see

Vote from 22 November:

PS, BE, PCP, PAN and PEV - In favour

PSD, CDS, CH and IL - Against
Livre and one PS MP (Ascenco Simões) - Abstain
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Mike88
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« Reply #1756 on: November 26, 2019, 02:15:52 pm »

Eurosondagem poll:

Vote share % (compared with the general election results)

36.9% PS (+0.6)
27.1% PSD (-0.7)
10.1% BE (+0.6)
  6.9% CDU (+0.6)
  4.0% CDS (-0.2)
  3.3% PAN (nc)
11.7% Others/Invalid (-0.9)

Poll conducted between 17 and 21 November 2019. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

No data for the new parties, CHEGA, IL and Livre... Weird.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1757 on: November 27, 2019, 03:20:23 pm »

The Livre-Joacine controversy continues:

Joacine Katar-Moreira (JKM) and Livre party continue to dominate headlines. The constant attacks by each side continue and today a weird event happened in Parliament. While in Parliament, JKM was seen with her adviser and another man who was a police officer, in civilian clothes, in order to protect her from the press. Reporters from RTP and SIC said the police officer barred them from talking to JKM and that she was escorted to her office in the Parliament building. The scene was caught by the press:



Her adviser, Rafael Esteves Martins, argued that reporters were storming into her parliament office and disturbing her, and a "bodyguard" had to be hired. The Speaker, Ferro Rodrigues, was quite upset by the scene and demanded explanations from JKM.
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bigic
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« Reply #1758 on: November 27, 2019, 05:01:07 pm »

How long before Joacine is expelled from Livre?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1759 on: November 27, 2019, 06:19:23 pm »

How long before Joacine is expelled from Livre?

That's the real problem Livre faces. Joacine Katar-Moreira could be expelled from the party, but she would still remain as an MP, leaving Livre in a difficult position with no official party status and a voice in Parliament. The party has asked the party's ethics committee to analyze the situation and advice a way forward. It's still unlikely that she will be expelled but the party is cut right in the middle and this is an awful way to start a political career.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1760 on: November 29, 2019, 07:00:52 pm »

Tensions between Mário Centeno and other ministers due to budget cuts, plus a controversial Catalonia vote in Lisbon municipal assembly:

According to the media, tensions between the finance minister and Eurogroup chairman Mário Centeno and other cabinet ministers are increasing due to budget cuts in the 2020 budget. The most notorious seems to be the "No" by Mário Centeno to an increase of 80 million euros to police forces, and will only give 16 million euros.


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Mário Centeno denies the Ministry of Internal Affairs 80 million (euros) to police forces.

The current minister of Internal Affairs wants an increase in the budget to face the growing anger in the police due to bad working conditions and low wages. Not to mention the increase of the involvement of police forces in right-wing/far-right movements, supported by CHEGA and others. But, it seems that Mário Centeno isn't budging and will only give a very smaller amount, as Mr Centeno' goal is to end 2020 with a budget surplus, which would be the first time in democracy. António Costa is facing pressure to mediate the tension between the ministers.

In Lisbon municipal assembly, a weird vote happened this week. The PS caucus in the Lisbon local assembly presented a vote to condemn Spain's treatment of Catalonia, criticizing "the repression of the Catalan people" and demanding the release of the "political prisoners", which passed with the votes of the PS, the left-wing parties and the opposition of PSD, CDS and Independents. The vote embarrassed the local PS and the national PS, with Lisbon city hall saying that only votes between councilmen count, and the national PS also distanced itself from the vote.


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Catalonia: PSOE makes formal complaint against PS over Catalonia.

However, the PSOE was quite upset by the vote and made a formal complaint against the PS that will be sent to Lisbon. The PSOE are accusing the local PS-Lisbon of ignorance and that the relation between the two parties was, and still is, quite good and that this vote is disappointing.
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Farmlands
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« Reply #1761 on: November 29, 2019, 07:29:54 pm »

So "moderate" Sanchez is now espousing rhetoric and threats that could very well be coming out of the Chinese Communist Party instead. There is little hope for the Catalans, or anyone abroad who supports them. As for Joacine, let's say I'm not planning to cross Livre's box in an election any time soon anymore.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1762 on: November 30, 2019, 08:57:05 am »

So "moderate" Sanchez is now espousing rhetoric and threats that could very well be coming out of the Chinese Communist Party instead. There is little hope for the Catalans, or anyone abroad who supports them. As for Joacine, let's say I'm not planning to cross Livre's box in an election any time soon anymore.
I think this vote shows how chaotic the political scene is in Lisbon city. Both PS and PSD are not going through a good moment in the capital, with the PSD in a much more difficult situation than the PS. And this vote shows a complete lack of leadership from the mayor, Fernando Medina, as he argues that the municipal assemblies votes aren't deliberative. Really? Each vote presented at the municipal assembly must be known to the party leader who presents it. Medina's luck is that there's no one else besides him to govern Lisbon. Not to mention that Lisbon city was one of the few places where the PS actually lost votes and share in the October elections.

About Livre, I don't know if they will still exist by the time of the next general election. JKM could even form her own party. Who knows.
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vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #1763 on: November 30, 2019, 03:42:33 pm »

Tbh I could see JKM and her fans defecting to the Bloco Esquerda
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Mike88
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« Reply #1764 on: November 30, 2019, 08:01:09 pm »

Tbh I could see JKM and her fans defecting to the Bloco Esquerda

Maybe, but she may be too controversial for the current Left Bloc.

Uptade: The PSD leadership campaign continues. Rui Rio held a rally in Aveiro, while Luís Montenegro held a rally in Porto city.

Rui Rio rally:


Luís Montenegro rally:


The first debate between the 3 candidates for the PSD leadership, Rui Rio, Luís Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz, will be held next Tuesday, 4 December on RTP1.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1765 on: December 01, 2019, 07:50:50 am »

Crisis deepens in CDS: Problems in finding people willing to go to the national congress in January.

The demobilization in CDS is growing, apparently. The party is having big problems in convincing many members across the country to take part in the national congress, next January, in order to elect a new leader. Many members of the party don't believe that CDS will have a future in the current political scene, and many local branches will not sent any delegates to the congress. João Almeida, one of the candidates for the CDS leadership, says that who say the party is reacting is a liar.
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tack50
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« Reply #1766 on: December 01, 2019, 02:33:26 pm »

So "moderate" Sanchez is now espousing rhetoric and threats that could very well be coming out of the Chinese Communist Party instead. There is little hope for the Catalans, or anyone abroad who supports them. As for Joacine, let's say I'm not planning to cross Livre's box in an election any time soon anymore.

For what's worth official Chinese media are using Spain as an example of "See, other countries do it too!" Tongue

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Mike88
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« Reply #1767 on: December 01, 2019, 07:18:11 pm »
« Edited: December 01, 2019, 07:24:38 pm by Mike88 »

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM and Negócios newspaper:

Q1: Costa' 2nd cabinet expectations, compared with his 1st cabinet:

48.0% The same (-3.1)
29.8% Worse (+6.0)
13.0% Better (-2.4)
  9.2% Undecided (-0.5)

Q2: Which should be the priorities in the 2020 budget:

45.9% More spending on the NHS, Education and Transports
25.5% Tax cuts for families
12.1% Pensions and wage increases in public employees
  6.6% Faster reduction of the national public debt
  4.0% Corporate tax cuts
  6.0% Others/Undecided

Poll conducted between 20 and 26 November 2019. Polled 604 voters. MoE of 4.00%
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crals
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« Reply #1768 on: December 02, 2019, 08:56:43 am »

Tbh I could see JKM and her fans defecting to the Bloco Esquerda
Even the BE are more moderate than JKM/Livre on culture war issues, besides they'd have nothing to gain from welcoming somebody so unpopular and unreliable. And I believe JKM would be forced to give up her seat if she switches parties.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1769 on: December 02, 2019, 08:57:05 pm »

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM and Negócios newspaper:

Vote share %:

34.9% PS (-0.7)
24.9% PSD (+0.1)
10.8% BE (+0.1)
  8.1% CDU (+1.2)
  4.8% PAN (-0.5)
  4.8% CHEGA (+2.3)
  2.9% CDS (-1.5)
  2.9% IL (+2.1)
  2.7% Livre (nc)
  3.4% Others/Invalid (-2.9)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.2 António Costa (nc)
3.1 Catarina Martins (-0.1)
2.8 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
2.8 André Silva (-0.1)
2.7 Rui Rio (-0.2)
2.2 Assunção Cristas (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 20 and 26 November 2019. Polled 604 voters. MoE of 4.00%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1770 on: December 03, 2019, 07:29:08 pm »

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM and Negócios newspaper:

Best leader for the PSD: (all voters)

40.6% Rui Rio
14.2% Luís Montenegro
  3.3% Miguel Pinto Luz
41.9% Undecided/Didn't respond

Poll conducted between 20 and 26 November 2019. Polled 604 voters. MoE of 4.00%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1771 on: December 04, 2019, 05:53:27 pm »

RTP1 debate between the 3 main PSD leadership candidates just ended:


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PSD: Two against one: PSD debate started with Rio on the defense.

The debate between the 3 candidates for the PSD leadership was full of cheap shots and low blows. It was clear that the climate between the candidates, especially Rio and Montenegro, is very bad. In fact, Rio and Montenegro frequently traded cheap shots against one and another, with, for example, Montenegro saying "you (Rio) should look at yourself" and Rio responding "well, of course, but only after you look at yourself". The debate had a look a tense discussion about election results, with both Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz accusing Rio of bad election results and of damaging the party, 22% in the EP elections and 28% in the general elections, and Rio accusing them of hypocrisy as they themselves, according to Rio, led the PSD to defeats in local elections: Montenegro lost Espinho city in 2005, and Miguel Pinto Luz was leader of the PSD-Lisbon during the disastrous 2013 and 2017 local elections results for the PSD in that district.

Rui Rio was also confronted with his accusation that obscure organizations, like the masonry, wants to control the PSD, a direct attack towards Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz which are, or suspected to be, members of the masonry. Montenegro denied being part of any of these organizations, before bashing Rio for making "newspaper comments" about him, while Miguel Pinto Luz confirmed be was a freemason but that he ceased from being a member after he entered in public offices. On policy, there was basically no difference between the 3 candidates. All 3 candidates, converged on the view of cutting taxes and corporate taxes and of the criticisms towards the PS on the state of the welfare state. On the way the PSD should act in opposition, Rio wants to be a "constructive opposition", Montenegro will not support the PS in any circumstance, and Miguel Pinto Luz wants "an alternative opposition".

The last topic was the 2021 midterm local elections. Montenegro wants to win the biggest number of cities across the country, especially Lisbon, as does Miguel Pinto Luz. Rio said he's a realistic person and knows the the 62 city difference between PS and PSD is huge and will fight to win the highest number of cities as possible.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1772 on: Today at 08:36:05 am »

Political update:

At least, two controversies dominated the headlines this week. First, and once again, CHEGA party election manifesto for the 2019 election was involved in a controversy after some leftwing pundits found that in the manifesto, CHEGA proposes the privatization of the NHS and the Education system. After this claim, the party's manifesto was withdrawn from the party's website, in a surprising turn of events. Ventura confirmed that the document will have a "review" on February 2020 in order to clarify it.


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CHEGA prepares "reversal" of its anti-welfare state program

Ventura added that the party will always defend the NHS and the Education system and that the party will abandon the idea that the State cannot be the provider of health services in the health market and should only as a regulator, or referee, of the market. Nonetheless, the party defends that there should an expansion of private health offer, provided by the State, to poorer families. Other policies that could be "reviewed" could be the proposed single income tax, ending the current progressivity of the tax, suggesting that the State "cannot be a Robin Hood, by stealing from the rich ti give to the poor, but rather create the conditions for all to become richer".

Another controversy this week was the parliamentary hearing of the RTP, public broadcaster, board and journalists about the controversial removal of an investigative report during the 2019 election campaign. During the election campaign, it was shedual to be revealed, in a RTP investigation program called "Sexta às 9", the ongoing investigation involving the lithium exploration in Portugal which involves highprofile members of the PS and the government. The RTP board decided to postponed the program by 3 weeks due to "election campaign programming reshuffle". This decision created a lot of controversy with many, mainly the PSD, accusing the RTP board of censorship and governmental pressure.


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RTP, Sandra Felgueiras, the controversial lithium and political interference?

During the hearings, Sandra Felgueiras, the main reporter from Sexta às 9, said it was possible for the program to go ahead as planned during the election campaign, but that the RTP board received a phone call from João Galamba office, the current secretary of state for Energy. The RTP board, by the voice of  Maria Flor Pedroso denied any government pressure. However, the mood in RTP isn't very good, with many workers criticizing and contesting Maria Flor Pedroso handling of the issue.
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