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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 78608 times)
DaWN
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« Reply #1075 on: December 01, 2019, 05:23:39 pm »

2. Corbyn hating was, if anything, more intense than it has been this year. Seriously, I was shocked at how vitriolic the rhetoric was; I sort of assumed it had gained volume and intensity over the past 2 years.

Even though I'm here now? 😁
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1076 on: December 01, 2019, 05:42:43 pm »

2. Corbyn hating was, if anything, more intense than it has been this year. Seriously, I was shocked at how vitriolic the rhetoric was; I sort of assumed it had gained volume and intensity over the past 2 years.

Even though I'm here now? 😁

Number 2 and number 5 seem to go hand in hand. The forum back then was more unruly, banning Krazen was arguably the turning point when things became more civil, even though he likely didn't post in that thread.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1077 on: December 01, 2019, 07:59:16 pm »

The Survation Poll dropped-



Note: The time in the field is incorrect. It should be the 26th to the 30th instead of the 29th to the 30th.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1078 on: December 01, 2019, 10:45:12 pm »

CON: 39% (-2)
LAB: 33% (+5)
LDEM: 13% (-5)
GRN: 5% (-)
BREX: 4% (+1)
via
@BMGResearch
, 27 - 29 Nov
Chgs. w/ 21 Nov


from westminster

Sorry for lack of tweet or if it's been posted already

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cp
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« Reply #1079 on: December 02, 2019, 02:38:30 am »

2. Corbyn hating was, if anything, more intense than it has been this year. Seriously, I was shocked at how vitriolic the rhetoric was; I sort of assumed it had gained volume and intensity over the past 2 years.

Even though I'm here now? 😁

Lol. Your Corbyn Derangement Syndrome exhibits relatively mild symptoms compared to the terminal cases from 2017. Tongue

In all seriousness, the 2017 thread was *way* heavier on the 'Corbyn is a terrorist' angle. This year the collective wisdom centres on something more like 'Corbyn is incompetent/a Brexiter/shifty'.

With regards to the polls published tonight, they obviously show Labour closing the gap. Maybe more importantly, they're showing the Tories stagnant and hitting their ceiling. Taking the margin of error into account, it's conceivable the BMG and Survation polls are actually showing the same thing (herding?).

At the risk of belabouring this gimmick: compared with 2017, these polls have Labour *and* the Tories about 3-5 points shy of where they were 10 days out. The only difference, really, is how well the Lib Dems and Brexit Party are doing. Depending on which votes these two smaller parties siphon from the main parties - and where they do it - the seat totals could vary enormously.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1080 on: December 02, 2019, 05:29:40 am »

The Survation Poll dropped-



Note: The time in the field is incorrect. It should be the 26th to the 30th instead of the 29th to the 30th.

It seems pretty clear that if Labour can bite into the LibDems as much as the Tories bit into the Brexit Party then it's a draw. I doubt that will happen, but even nicking another four or five points should be enough to prevent a Tory majority.
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adma
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« Reply #1081 on: December 02, 2019, 06:23:12 am »

In all seriousness, the 2017 thread was *way* heavier on the 'Corbyn is a terrorist' angle. This year the collective wisdom centres on something more like 'Corbyn is incompetent/a Brexiter/shifty'.

*And* an anti-Semite.  (Maybe not so much in *this* thread, but...)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1082 on: December 02, 2019, 09:52:41 am »



Don't think we have ICM here yet. They are one of the higher-rollers  on Labour, which is fine. Like I always say, look to the modelling trackers. It's dangerous if we don't have outliers for the models because that leads to herding.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1083 on: December 02, 2019, 10:00:08 am »

Labour pick up a few more points from the LibDems/Greens, and its real "squeaky bum time".......
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1084 on: December 02, 2019, 10:21:37 am »

With Labor gaining, it looks like this could end up as some sort of 2017 redux, where conservative PM calls for new elections in light of strong polling numbers, but then ends up with a bare victory and another hung parliament as leftwing voters come home to Labor.
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(CT) The Free North
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« Reply #1085 on: December 02, 2019, 10:44:20 am »

With Labor gaining, it looks like this could end up as some sort of 2017 redux, where conservative PM calls for new elections in light of strong polling numbers, but then ends up with a bare victory and another hung parliament as leftwing voters come home to Labor.

Perhaps Johnson will be able to stand his ground better than May, but if indeed we do get another hung parliament and Labour can't form some sort of coalition to secure power we're right back to where we were before and the Brexit demons continue to haunt the country.

I guess thats Johnson's argument really, but it doesn't paint a great picture to the electorate: "vote for me or else we're going to be trapped in perpetual gridlock"
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1086 on: December 02, 2019, 10:51:12 am »

With Labor gaining, it looks like this could end up as some sort of 2017 redux, where conservative PM calls for new elections in light of strong polling numbers, but then ends up with a bare victory and another hung parliament as leftwing voters come home to Labor.

Perhaps Johnson will be able to stand his ground better than May, but if indeed we do get another hung parliament and Labour can't form some sort of coalition to secure power we're right back to where we were before and the Brexit demons continue to haunt the country.

I guess thats Johnson's argument really, but it doesn't paint a great picture to the electorate: "vote for me or else we're going to be trapped in perpetual gridlock"


Yup, though Johnson seems to have "cleaned" his parlamentary faction by throwing out skeptics of his course or Brexit in general. I suppose all Tories running with a shot a winning their district are Brexiteers.
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cp
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« Reply #1087 on: December 02, 2019, 11:05:13 am »

With Labor gaining, it looks like this could end up as some sort of 2017 redux, where conservative PM calls for new elections in light of strong polling numbers, but then ends up with a bare victory and another hung parliament as leftwing voters come home to Labor.

From your keyboard to God's ears.

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Beezer
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« Reply #1088 on: December 02, 2019, 01:16:16 pm »

The Tories' polling numbers weren't that great when Johnson called the election, however, and while there has been a tightening of the polls, the Tory lead is still around 2-3 points larger than at the same point in 2017.
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cp
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« Reply #1089 on: December 02, 2019, 02:14:47 pm »

The Tories' polling numbers weren't that great when Johnson called the election, however, and while there has been a tightening of the polls, the Tory lead is still around 2-3 points larger than at the same point in 2017.

Well, they were hovering in the mid to high 30s had a 10-15 point lead by most measures. It's not the heights they had during May's pre-2017 honeymoon, but pretty good overall.

The Tory lead is definitely a few points shy of this point in 2017, but I think that has more to do with stickier Lib Dem votes than a more successful Tory (or less successful Labour) campaign thus far.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #1090 on: December 02, 2019, 02:27:29 pm »
« Edited: December 02, 2019, 02:38:49 pm by Pericles »

Tbh it does seem that the Tories have run a better campaign than May in 2017 (pretty easy to do) and Labour so far has run a bit of a worse campaign than in 2017. 'Get Brexit Done' is super dumb but also effective. The leadership ratings are weird, Johnson seems to be slightly more unpopular than May was even at the end of the campaign, but Corbyn hasn't so far had much of a surge in his leadership ratings and is still deeply unpopular. Boris's leads in preferred Prime Minister ratings so far are slightly higher than May's lead in those ratings at the end of the 2017 campaign but maybe slightly lower than May's ratings at this point in the campaign. Perhaps those who hate both Corbyn and Boris will go to Labour, but it doesn't look good for Labour (yet) here. Of course we'll have to wait until the end of the campaign to get a full picture, but so far the Tories do seem on track for victory.
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Soccer Moms Against Sanders
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« Reply #1091 on: December 02, 2019, 07:24:51 pm »

If labour suffers a massive defeat next week Corbyn should step down, but at the same time I wonder if any labour leader will be able to overcome this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-british-media-labour-tories-bias-press-polls-a9229161.html


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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1092 on: December 02, 2019, 07:44:32 pm »
« Edited: December 02, 2019, 09:38:36 pm by Skill and Chance »

It seems like the WWII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1093 on: December 02, 2019, 08:13:25 pm »

It seems like the WWIII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

I never realized radioactive mutants were so pro-Conservative.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #1094 on: December 02, 2019, 08:36:33 pm »

It seems like the WWIII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

Seems to be that way, though Labour has won some close elections. 2005 is also an interesting example, it wasn't close in seats and Blair got a 64-seat majority, but Labour only won the popular vote by 3 points (far less than the 7 point win that it took for the Tories to win their bare majority in 2015). FPP used to favor Labour, though in the last two elections it has favored the Tories instead.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #1095 on: December 02, 2019, 09:38:52 pm »

It seems like the WWIII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

Except for Thatcher in 83 and 87 though
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cp
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« Reply #1096 on: December 03, 2019, 01:30:01 am »

It seems like the WWII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

If we're looking for decades-long cycles and patterns in Westminster elections, the standard account portrays Labour as the dominant party from 1945-1979 (when they won 6/10 elections and were in government for 18/34 years) and the Tories ever since (7/10 wins, 27/40 years). It's also worth noting that during these periods, when the 'non-dominant' party took office they did not substantially challenge the overarching consensus set by the other party.

If one were inclined to put faith in these observations, it would be quite easy to craft a narrative of a generational change in 2019 that would see the Tories on the losing end. I think that approach is far too simplistic, alas.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1097 on: December 03, 2019, 03:15:18 am »

FWIW thanks to First Past the Post a 42-35 Tory Victory can still see some very weird results; the 2015 result shows how a Tory lead of 7 can really throw curveballs
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1098 on: December 03, 2019, 04:42:43 am »

Particularly since as the polls stand, the major change from 2017 to 2019 is in the pattern of Labour and LD support. How evenly or unevenly that LD support is distributed will make a lot of difference - indeed, that probably applies even if they've been squeezed down below 10% by polling day.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1099 on: December 03, 2019, 06:09:44 am »

It seems like the WWIII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

I never realized radioactive mutants were so pro-Conservative.

I refer you to the result in Copeland.
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