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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 79107 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1100 on: December 03, 2019, 08:37:26 am »
« edited: December 03, 2019, 08:42:21 am by Oryxslayer »





Morning Poll roundup. I'm interested in the London poll, because it seems to confirm that the city will go one way (ousting tories) whereas the country may go another. The pollster even says in their article that we have reached the point where the numbers don't really matter (the safe seats are confirmed as safe), it's more local factors like candidates and targeted issues in the swing seats.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1101 on: December 03, 2019, 09:00:50 am »





Morning Poll roundup. I'm interested in the London poll, because it seems to confirm that the city will go one way (ousting tories) whereas the country may go another. The pollster even says in their article that we have reached the point where the numbers don't really matter (the safe seats are confirmed as safe), it's more local factors like candidates and targeted issues in the swing seats.

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1102 on: December 03, 2019, 09:06:15 am »

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.

And, in any case, they are by different polling firms...
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1103 on: December 03, 2019, 12:19:56 pm »

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.

And, in any case, they are by different polling firms...

And in any case, they cannot possibly capture the full scope of Jezz-mentum which will be realized only in 10 days.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1104 on: December 03, 2019, 12:56:16 pm »

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.
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wolfentoad66
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« Reply #1105 on: December 03, 2019, 01:10:14 pm »

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1106 on: December 03, 2019, 01:11:50 pm »

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.

Which is why her winning easily will be the most pleasurable of the numerous wonderful disappointments you will endure on election night
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1107 on: December 03, 2019, 01:19:25 pm »

Side question, but was wondering why in Liverpool Labour tends to have some of the highest margins in the country and Tories struggle to crack double digits.  I can see in some parts of Birmingham or London which are predominately non-white why this might happen or in university towns, but Liverpool is not especially young and it is fairly white or at least close to 90% white.  Any particular reason?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1108 on: December 03, 2019, 01:22:55 pm »

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.

I mean it makes sense that internal polling has them down. The SNP's revival is thanks to their present ability to convince 2014/15 but not 2017 voters to turn out. This demographic is concentrated most strongly in the urban strip, not the tory highlands and borders. This is unfortunately why Labour's Scottish prospects are rather dire right now. It's also why Swinson may be polling a tight race.

HOWEVER. Tactical voting among unionists is a thing and is the reason why SNP undershot every projection in 2017. It's something that is both hard to poll and occurs spontaneously. it may not be enough to save those with small majorities, but it will likely save Swinson with her 10% lead.  
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #1109 on: December 03, 2019, 01:23:10 pm »

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.

"I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle - even if I lived in a Tory/Liberal Democrat marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader - but I'd certain vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Liberal Democrats yet another well-deserved humiliation."

This is an entirely hypocritical contradictory statement. You destroy and make everything in between the dashes meaningless with everything stated after the 2nd dash, because after stating there is no way you would vote against a Corbyn-led Labour candidate regardless of the nature of the electoral district, you state circumstances that would have you voting against the Corbyn-led Labour candidate.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1110 on: December 03, 2019, 01:25:14 pm »



New Poll. I'm not sure  if we have had a poll recently where Labour went down? If so, this is a first. However, this seems like a dead cat bounce poll more than anything.
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cp
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« Reply #1111 on: December 03, 2019, 01:37:44 pm »

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.

And, in any case, they are by different polling firms...

And in any case, they cannot possibly capture the full scope of Jezz-mentum which will be realized only in 10 days.

That's a nice thought for a Lab supporter, but even I'm not willing to go that far Tongue

On the poll, something to keep in mind is that YouGov publishes two polls per week with slightly different methods for collection/weighting. The relevant poll to compare this one to is the one conducted Nov 26-28, which showed the Tories at 43 and Labour at 32.

Side question, but was wondering why in Liverpool Labour tends to have some of the highest margins in the country and Tories struggle to crack double digits.  I can see in some parts of Birmingham or London which are predominately non-white why this might happen or in university towns, but Liverpool is not especially young and it is fairly white or at least close to 90% white.  Any particular reason?

Mostly historical reasons relating to the miner's strike and the local government. Liverpool was run by one of the most ardent left councils and was the centre of power for the Labour Party's leadership through most of the mid 20th century. Think of it as to Labour what the Cotswolds are to the Tories.
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PoliticalShelter
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« Reply #1112 on: December 03, 2019, 01:45:16 pm »
« Edited: December 03, 2019, 02:12:30 pm by PoliticalShelter »

Side question, but was wondering why in Liverpool Labour tends to have some of the highest margins in the country and Tories struggle to crack double digits.  I can see in some parts of Birmingham or London which are predominately non-white why this might happen or in university towns, but Liverpool is not especially young and it is fairly white or at least close to 90% white.  Any particular reason?

Because a higher proportion of its population are members of trade unions (the traditional reason for voting for the Labour Party) and unlike certain other areas with higher trade union membership (like Wales) it voted remain so the Conservatives canít really use brexit as an issue to try to weaken Labourís margin.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1113 on: December 03, 2019, 02:03:17 pm »

Honestly I'd love to see a Labour minority that needs Lib Dem support just to see the reaction of anomalocaris and other dimmer Corbynites. I wonder if it will be "You know, on reflection, I've never minded the Lib Dems all that much..." or "CLASS TRAITOR CORBYN WORKING WITH THE LIB DEMS!" Either way it will be hilarious.

Regarding Swindon, she is inevitable herself, but if the Lib Dems perform badly then I doubt she'll be leader for long. Personally, I think 20 seats or more she's fine, 15-20 she'll be ok in the short term but probably won't serve the whole parliament, under 15 she's finished.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1114 on: December 03, 2019, 03:18:26 pm »

Here's a three-day average of polls, with my own MP estimates (based on nationwide swing figures):

Cons - 43.3% (-0.3%), 345 MPs (+27)
Lab - 33.0% (-8.0%), 219 MPs (-43)
Lib Dem - 13.5% (+5.9%), 17 MPs (+5)
Nat - 3.5% (-0.1%), 50 MPs (+11)
GP - 2.5% (+0.9%), 1 MP

Overall majority: 40
Overall swing: 3.9% to Cons


Will update figures regularly, then make an actual prediction a day or two before the vote.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1115 on: December 03, 2019, 03:38:56 pm »

Is this a last minute Labour surge or not?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1116 on: December 03, 2019, 03:44:48 pm »

Is this a last minute Labour surge or not?

I'm not seeing a surge. The weekend polls showed an uptick, but it was marginal at best. YouGov should update their model tomorrow which will give us another data point. This upcoming weekends polls will likely be make-or-break if Labour's getting a detectable surge since we got Trump and another 1v1 debate this week, both serious opportunities for Labour to benefit.
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wolfentoad66
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« Reply #1117 on: December 03, 2019, 04:22:34 pm »

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.

Which is why her winning easily will be the most pleasurable of the numerous wonderful disappointments you will endure on election night

Probably, yeah.
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wolfentoad66
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« Reply #1118 on: December 03, 2019, 04:23:05 pm »

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.

"I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle - even if I lived in a Tory/Liberal Democrat marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader - but I'd certain vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Liberal Democrats yet another well-deserved humiliation."

This is an entirely hypocritical contradictory statement. You destroy and make everything in between the dashes meaningless with everything stated after the 2nd dash, because after stating there is no way you would vote against a Corbyn-led Labour candidate regardless of the nature of the electoral district, you state circumstances that would have you voting against the Corbyn-led Labour candidate.

According to my calculations, you sir have _
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afleitch
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« Reply #1119 on: December 03, 2019, 04:53:01 pm »

Is this a last minute Labour surge or not?

No.



That's if the polls are right of course.
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vileplume
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« Reply #1120 on: December 03, 2019, 05:00:46 pm »
« Edited: December 03, 2019, 05:07:23 pm by vileplume »

Side question, but was wondering why in Liverpool Labour tends to have some of the highest margins in the country and Tories struggle to crack double digits.  I can see in some parts of Birmingham or London which are predominately non-white why this might happen or in university towns, but Liverpool is not especially young and it is fairly white or at least close to 90% white.  Any particular reason?

The Tories have an especially negative reputation in the Greater Liverpool region dating back to the Thatcher era when the city went into a significant period of accelerated decline and it was perceived that the government didn't care (government documents from the 80s have emerged in the last few years detailing a plan for the city's 'managed decline'). Given Liverpool's troubles it unsurprisingly lost a huge amount of population (the population approximately halved(!) between 1931 and 2001) with those demographics more likely to be sympathetic to the Tories being disproportionately likely to leave and move to somewhere like rural Cheshire (e.g. comfortably off, private sector manager types). I believe it is said that: 'there are Tory Scousers except none of them live in Liverpool!'.

Those who remained in Liverpool, a generally Labour demographic as is, near unanimously blamed the Conservative Party for ruining their city (not entirely fairly as there were other factors at work). This antipathy towards the Tories has filtered down the generations and remains very strong even though the city has recovered somewhat from its nadir. The movement of newly affluent Scousers to areas surrounding Liverpool since the 90s such as Crosby and the Wirral Peninsula has caused a significant weakening of the Tory position in these areas as the new residents bring their 'inherited' dislike of the Tories with them.

Another not-often discussed but nevertheless significant factor is that traditionally one of Conservative Party's best ways of getting their message across to the working/lower middle class is the Sun newspaper. However the Sun (referred to as the S*n by the Liverpool Echo and others) is reviled on Merseyside and has a derisory readership due to its false coverage of the Hillsborough disaster (96 Liverpool FC fans were crushed to death at an away match in Sheffield due to negligent police control) where it blamed the disaster on Liverpool fans and fabricated stories about their behaviour. Even 30 years aversion to the paper is still extremely strong effectively becoming ingrained in the regional psyche and consequently the Sun's target demographic in this region opt primarily for the left-leaning Mirror.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1121 on: December 03, 2019, 05:05:32 pm »

I mean, the truth is that there has been a Labour surge (or perhaps more accurately, a slow but steady build) but that was matched by a comparable Tory gain. Whereas in 2017, Labour surged and the Tories held steady.

This would still mean serious losses for Labour if the polls are right, of course, but I do think there's a difference between being defeated 35-25 and being defeated 45-35. Going into the election there was a real risk of Labour losing key parts of it base and potentially facing another 1983-like defeat that would cripple it for a generation. Right now, if they do at least as well as the polls are predicting, they will remain a solid voting block and the clear face of the opposition. Once Corbyn is replaced, that can put them in a strong position to win in 2024.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1122 on: December 03, 2019, 05:33:01 pm »

Honestly I'd love to see a Labour minority that needs Lib Dem support just to see the reaction of anomalocaris and other dimmer Corbynites. I wonder if it will be "You know, on reflection, I've never minded the Lib Dems all that much..." or "CLASS TRAITOR CORBYN WORKING WITH THE LIB DEMS!" Either way it will be hilarious.

Regarding Swindon, she is inevitable herself, but if the Lib Dems perform badly then I doubt she'll be leader for long. Personally, I think 20 seats or more she's fine, 15-20 she'll be ok in the short term but probably won't serve the whole parliament, under 15 she's finished.

Eh, what I will say is that I have lived in the UK for two periods in my life. For a year in Sheffield around the time that David Cameron came to power, and for a longer period in London - but with lots of travel to Hull and to various towns in the South Coast - around the time of the referendum.

I remember, not that long ago, walking down Bargate, which is the main shopping street in Southamption (not a rich place, but not an especially poor one in the grand scheme of things) at about 7 in the morning. In every single doorway on the road, there was a rough sleeper; which to me as a naÔve little Swiss kid seemed like a shocking, almost unreal level of poverty so visibly, viscerally on display.

Anyway point being, the level of damage that the Tories have done to the UK's social fabric in the last 9 years is genuinely heartbraking to see from the outside - in terms of the utterly real, but utterly pointless human cost; of the lives ruined; of the hopes destroyed and the pesssimism that has settled over the country as a whole. And in that respect, looking at what such a radical a Tory government as the one that seems to be on the cusp of taking power would actually do, is absolutely terrifying in terms of the actual human consequences it would have. So in that respect, I would be delighted for the Lib Dems to prop up any Labour government; just because it would mean them no longer being in power. And what Britain as a society, as real people whose real lives have been made worse, and are going to continue being made worse, by this Conservative government, really needs is the Tories no longer being in power.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1123 on: December 03, 2019, 05:41:07 pm »

Anyway, there was a debate between Scottish leaders tonight, and the reaction from those that did watch it was that Leonard really stepped in it and did Scottish Labour no favors.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1124 on: December 03, 2019, 05:43:39 pm »

Eh, what I will say is that I have lived in the UK for two periods in my life. For a year in Sheffield around the time that David Cameron came to power, and for a longer period in London - but with lots of travel to Hull and to various towns in the South Coast - around the time of the referendum.

I remember, not that long ago, walking down Bargate, which is the main shopping street in Southamption (not a rich place, but not an especially poor one in the grand scheme of things) at about 7 in the morning. In every single doorway on the road, there was a rough sleeper; which to me as a naÔve little Swiss kid seemed like a shocking, almost unreal level of poverty so visibly, viscerally on display.

Anyway point being, the level of damage that the Tories have done to the UK's social fabric in the last 9 years is genuinely heartbraking to see from the outside - in terms of the utterly real, but utterly pointless human cost; of the lives ruined; of the hopes destroyed and the pesssimism that has settled over the country as a whole. And in that respect, looking at what such a radical a Tory government as the one that seems to be on the cusp of taking power would actually do, is absolutely terrifying in terms of the actual human consequences it would have. So in that respect, I would be delighted for the Lib Dems to prop up any Labour government; just because it would mean them no longer being in power. And what Britain as a society, as real people whose real lives have been made worse, and are going to continue being made worse, by this Conservative government, really needs is the Tories no longer being in power.

Of course, that is a thoroughly reasonable line to take and one I can hardly disagree with. I didn't mean people like you though, I was talking more about the unhinged nuts. Fwiw, from the opposite perspective of a Lib Dem supporter who hates Corbyn's Labour, I'd certainly support such an agreement.
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