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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 69964 times)
Serenity Now
tomm_86
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« Reply #1200 on: December 05, 2019, 09:50:15 am »

Sikhs remain highly loyal to Labour, a schism in their Southall heartland at the time of the 2007 byelection (a group led by the local "community leader" passed over for the nomination defected to the Tories) ultimately didn't count for much. They have, in this country and elsewhere, suffered a fair amount of ignorant abuse from racists that was actually "meant" for Muslims - and attempts by a few in their ranks to play the sectarian (ie anti Muslim) card to boost the Tory cause have had little traction.

Hindus are a different matter admittedly, though even there it shouldn't be overstated - a clear plurality continue to support Labour and much of the pro-Tory activism there has become linked with stans for Modi, which is not universally popular. It is worth mentioning too that Priti Patel originates from the Ugandan Asian community, which has always been more pro-Tory than average due to their gratitude to the party that admitted them to the UK in the 1970s.

Hope this helps!

The reminds me of a probably useless anecdote I've been meaning to share about when I went canvassing (for Labour but don't worry, I wont be campaigning in this thread) in a marginal constituency in Middlesex last weekend. I got the impression from activists from the area that the situation in Kashmir has been an issue there locally and that the Conservative MP is (shall we say) taking sides as part of their bid for re-election. It's also possible that this may be working for said MP.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1201 on: December 05, 2019, 10:35:56 am »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 10:44:27 am by DaWN »

ANECDOTE ALERT

I did some leafleting for the Lib Dems in Streatham this morning. The bloke I spoke to said he was sure  they'd make second and would cut the Labour majority. How much of a cut he didn't say, but I'm going to guess a fairly small one. The bloke thought they might have had a chance if Chuka had stood again but that didn't happen so they don't. Make of that what you will; i.e not much.

Delivered some leaflets in one of the estates and frankly I'd be flabbergasted if a single person I leafleted doesn't vote Labour. It's the thought that counts I suppose.

I did, however, lose a fight with a letterbox at one point, the results of which are displayed thus.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1202 on: December 05, 2019, 10:48:51 am »


I did, however, lose a fight with a letterbox at one point, the results of which are displayed thus.


I can't remember what piece I was reading, but the candidate interviewed said her team always brought spatulas or kitchen tongs  with them while canvassing. She said it helps getting the leaflets in through mail slits...especially when there is an aggressive animal inside.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1203 on: December 05, 2019, 11:29:43 am »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 11:43:40 am by Oryxslayer »



Economist Poll of Wrexham. Everything being equal, I don't think we needed this poll, Wrexham was always in the splash zone and probably goes blue even under the scenarios where BoJo fails to get a majority. Interestingly, it's main divergence between YouGov is the Tory/Labour numbers, the minors are all similar overall.

I also don't like that 'don't know' is removed, but that's how polls are presented in the uk.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1204 on: December 05, 2019, 11:35:59 am »

Tiny sample size is never great news, but the doubling of the Plaid percentage is a big flashing light there. Not that that particular constituency isn't vulnerable, particularly with Lucas standing down.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1205 on: December 05, 2019, 11:53:35 am »



G Elliot Morris made an article on the economist about Lib-Dem vote efficiency. This was the leading image, the  only thing not behind the paywall. Frankly, the image is rather juvenile since everyone knows the Lib-Dems defy universal swing and most models. Team Orange surges hard when they target a seat (the target is normally predisposed towards the  Lib-Dems anyway), but gains only a bit outside said targets. This is why the Lib-Dems usually undershoot their polled vote, but overshoot their polled seats: a Lib-Dem voter is usually more educated than the electorate and wants their vote to matter.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1206 on: December 05, 2019, 11:54:50 am »

Still no postal vote through and I fly out on Monday Sad
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Shadows
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« Reply #1207 on: December 05, 2019, 12:42:07 pm »

Jo Swinson apologises for backing coalition's austerity policies

Jo Swinson has repeatedly apologised for her role in austerity measures under the Lib Dem-Conservative coalition after she was pressed in a BBC interview over why her party is seeking to roll back several measures she voted for in the 2010-15 administration. Swinson, who is facing criticism of her tactical decisions and voter appeal in a campaign which has seen the Lib Dems’ poll rating gradually slip, also said she would remain as leader even the party ended up with fewer than the 21 MPs they began the election with. “I’m continuing as Liberal Democrat leader,” she said. “I’ve got a job to do and I’ve just been elected to do it.” Asked if she would remain regardless of the result, she replied: “I’m here to stay and we’re going to get a great result.”

The quizzing on benefit cuts began with Neil noting that the Lib Dems wanted to scrap the bedroom tax, which cuts benefits for people living in social homes with more rooms than they are deemed to need. “Who voted nine times to introduce the bedroom tax?” he asked. “The Liberal Democrats in government, including myself,” said Swinson, who held various junior ministerial roles from 2012 to 2015. She added: “Which I have previously said – and I’m happy to say again – was wrong. And I’m sorry about that, and it was one of the things that we did get wrong.” Swinson also acknowledged that while in the coalition she backed the benefits cap, which limits the maximum benefits income a family can receive regardless of circumstances, and private tendering in the NHS – all of which she now wants to reverse.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/04/jo-swinson-lib-dem-apologises-for-backing-coalition-austerity-policies

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Shadows
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« Reply #1208 on: December 05, 2019, 12:47:03 pm »

Labour needs its leave voters too – or a Johnson era beckons

Since the campaign began, Labour’s gradual recovery in the polls has been driven by those previously antagonised opponents of Brexit. While its support among remainers has risen by on average 10 points to 44%, among the Lib Dems that figure has slumped seven points to just 26%. A month ago, Jeremy Corbyn’s net favourability among remainers was a dire -33, now recovering to -4; for Jo Swinson, it has plummeted from +13 to -8. In certain remain seats, particularly in the south, Labour candidates have been surprised at how much their vote has held up.

Yet there is no question that the chief obstacle to Labour’s electoral ambitions is now on its leave flank. The party’s support has also grown among leavers during this election campaign, but from a derisory level: from 11% to 16%. There is a reason that the Tories believe their chances of securing a decisive majority lie in achieving what May failed to do: sweeping through Labour’s so-called “red wall” of leave-voting constituencies in the north, the Midlands and Wales. Constituency-level polling should be treated with caution, but according to a poll by Survation, Labour’s polling in Grimsby – a seat it has held since 1945 – has collapsed from 49% since 2017 to 31%, almost all to the Brexit party, which would allow the Tories to win through the middle.

Private research suggests that around 80 Labour leave seats are at some risk of being lost to the Tories (although it was conducted before Labour’s more recent polling recovery). In some Midlands seats, up to half of Labour leave voters have left the party’s fold. In the final two weeks of the campaign, Corbyn’s team still has much work to do to persuade remainers who have defected to the Lib Dems that their only hope is a Labour-led government. But the party’s prospects are doomed without the support of more leave-inclined voters. Domestic policies that are popular among them, from investment in creaking public services to public ownership, are key to winning them round. The threat posed to the NHS by a deal with the Donald Trump administration is critical, too.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/27/labour-election-leave-voters-boris-johnson-hard-brexit
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Fubart Solman 🥀
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« Reply #1209 on: December 05, 2019, 01:45:40 pm »

Lucid Talk’s big Northern Ireland poll will be released tomorrow.

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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1210 on: December 05, 2019, 02:02:17 pm »

Which members of Change UK still on the sinking ship will survive, Soubry, Gapes, or Leslie or None of them?

There will be no CUK Holds.
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Fubart Solman 🥀
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« Reply #1211 on: December 05, 2019, 02:05:37 pm »

Which members of Change UK still on the sinking ship will survive, Soubry, Gapes, or Leslie or None of them?

There will be no CUK Holds.

Heh
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1212 on: December 05, 2019, 02:41:01 pm »

The only CHUK'ers that can survive the sinking ship were those that were smart enough to board the Lib-Dem lifeboats.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #1213 on: December 05, 2019, 04:02:30 pm »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 04:09:09 pm by Mangez des pommes ! »

Jo Swinson apologises for backing coalition's austerity policies

Jo Swinson has repeatedly apologised for her role in austerity measures under the Lib Dem-Conservative coalition after she was pressed in a BBC interview over why her party is seeking to roll back several measures she voted for in the 2010-15 administration. Swinson, who is facing criticism of her tactical decisions and voter appeal in a campaign which has seen the Lib Dems’ poll rating gradually slip, also said she would remain as leader even the party ended up with fewer than the 21 MPs they began the election with. “I’m continuing as Liberal Democrat leader,” she said. “I’ve got a job to do and I’ve just been elected to do it.” Asked if she would remain regardless of the result, she replied: “I’m here to stay and we’re going to get a great result.”

The quizzing on benefit cuts began with Neil noting that the Lib Dems wanted to scrap the bedroom tax, which cuts benefits for people living in social homes with more rooms than they are deemed to need. “Who voted nine times to introduce the bedroom tax?” he asked. “The Liberal Democrats in government, including myself,” said Swinson, who held various junior ministerial roles from 2012 to 2015. She added: “Which I have previously said – and I’m happy to say again – was wrong. And I’m sorry about that, and it was one of the things that we did get wrong.” Swinson also acknowledged that while in the coalition she backed the benefits cap, which limits the maximum benefits income a family can receive regardless of circumstances, and private tendering in the NHS – all of which she now wants to reverse.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/04/jo-swinson-lib-dem-apologises-for-backing-coalition-austerity-policies

We're so sorry'f the bedroom tax
Has been causing you distress in any way
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #1214 on: December 05, 2019, 05:34:36 pm »

Lets hope the Tories can finish this time around, and win a majority.
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cp
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« Reply #1215 on: December 05, 2019, 05:39:41 pm »

Since we're doing stories from the front lines, here's mine: I handed out flyers at the train station this morning. Mostly encouraging responses, with one glaring exception. A lady in her 50s started yelling at me, saying I was trying to overturn a democratic vote, the EU was corrupt, and various other Daily Maily agitprop. I stayed calm until she walked away, at which point she turned back and hollered at me: "You're not even English!"

For the record, I was born in Canada and still speak with that accent. I'm also a UK citizen and have lived here 12 years.

I'm really never going to forgive the Tories for what they unleashed these past three years. They deserve oblivion, not a majority.
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Lumine
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« Reply #1216 on: December 05, 2019, 05:40:53 pm »

Jo Swinson apologises for backing coalition's austerity policies

Jo Swinson has repeatedly apologised for her role in austerity measures under the Lib Dem-Conservative coalition after she was pressed in a BBC interview over why her party is seeking to roll back several measures she voted for in the 2010-15 administration. Swinson, who is facing criticism of her tactical decisions and voter appeal in a campaign which has seen the Lib Dems’ poll rating gradually slip, also said she would remain as leader even the party ended up with fewer than the 21 MPs they began the election with. “I’m continuing as Liberal Democrat leader,” she said. “I’ve got a job to do and I’ve just been elected to do it.” Asked if she would remain regardless of the result, she replied: “I’m here to stay and we’re going to get a great result.”

The quizzing on benefit cuts began with Neil noting that the Lib Dems wanted to scrap the bedroom tax, which cuts benefits for people living in social homes with more rooms than they are deemed to need. “Who voted nine times to introduce the bedroom tax?” he asked. “The Liberal Democrats in government, including myself,” said Swinson, who held various junior ministerial roles from 2012 to 2015. She added: “Which I have previously said – and I’m happy to say again – was wrong. And I’m sorry about that, and it was one of the things that we did get wrong.” Swinson also acknowledged that while in the coalition she backed the benefits cap, which limits the maximum benefits income a family can receive regardless of circumstances, and private tendering in the NHS – all of which she now wants to reverse.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/04/jo-swinson-lib-dem-apologises-for-backing-coalition-austerity-policies

We're so sorry'f the bedroom tax
Has been causing you distress in any way


'Cause ve vere only obeying orders
And the one who made us do it all was "he"!


(Spitting Image at its prime would have been so brutal on the current leaders)
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1217 on: December 05, 2019, 08:24:17 pm »

Lets hope the Tories can finish this time around, and win a majority.


No, austerity is cancerous.


Also, just food for thought. While predictions right now are putting Tories on 350, predictions one week out in 2017 had Tories on 370. Just some stuff for though.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #1218 on: December 05, 2019, 09:11:02 pm »

Lets hope the Tories can finish this time around, and win a majority.


No, austerity is cancerous.


Also, just food for thought. While predictions right now are putting Tories on 350, predictions one week out in 2017 had Tories on 370. Just some stuff for though.

While true, it seems as though the Conservatives have avoided a lot of the bad press that hurt them tremendously in 2017. Not to mention the fact that Corbyn hasn't been getting the sort of beneficial press he had that election too
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1219 on: December 05, 2019, 09:23:27 pm »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 10:19:57 pm by KaiserDave »

Lets hope the Tories can finish this time around, and win a majority.


No, austerity is cancerous.


Also, just food for thought. While predictions right now are putting Tories on 350, predictions one week out in 2017 had Tories on 370. Just some stuff for though.

While true, it seems as though the Conservatives have avoided a lot of the bad press that hurt them tremendously in 2017. Not to mention the fact that Corbyn hasn't been getting the sort of beneficial press he had that election too

Corbyn is getting a lot of bad press now, and in many cases rightfully so. But 2017 was hardly a media love-fest for Corbyn.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1220 on: December 05, 2019, 09:23:33 pm »

Lets hope the Tories can finish this time around, and win a majority.


No, austerity is cancerous.


Also, just food for thought. While predictions right now are putting Tories on 350, predictions one week out in 2017 had Tories on 370. Just some stuff for though.

While true, it seems as though the Conservatives have avoided a lot of the bad press that hurt them tremendously in 2017. Not to mention the fact that Corbyn hasn't been getting the sort of beneficial press he had that election too

He also had an upward trend whereas this time it seems as if the Conservatives have been able to hold their lead steady. It doesn't help that Corbyn is still way down in preferred PM polls,  a ways below his topline which suggests reluctant voters have already came home. One of the things that I remember from 2017 was me progressively moving the Tory majority down each week, whereas the 340-350 seats for BoJo seems to have been stable since the first days when Labour reconsolidated.

However, the campaign ain't over. There's still a 1v1 debate (in a swingy area, not like deep red Sheffield though), still 6 days of campaigning, polls could be off (likely not in the same way as 2017, but still can benefit Labour), and there could still be a question of vote efficiency. Corbyn certainly has the worse hand, but he still could play for a Lib-SNP-Lab style govt if things turn in his favor.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1221 on: December 06, 2019, 07:23:26 am »

Yes, there's been no surge in Corbyn's approval rating which was the canary in the coalmine last time.

Anyway a Scottish poll from YouGov. Changes on 2017

SNP 44% (+7)
Conservative 28% (-1)
Labour 15% (-12)
Lib Dem 12% (+5)
Greens 1% (+1)
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1222 on: December 06, 2019, 07:44:36 am »

It has improved somewhat, actually - it's just that whereas last time he went from being very unpopular to being slightly unpopular, this time he's gone from phenomenally unpopular to merely very unpopular.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1223 on: December 06, 2019, 08:10:08 am »

Johnson's approvals are also very poor for an incumbent PM, and the direction of travel is horrific. So this is a rather strange and curious situation.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1224 on: December 06, 2019, 08:18:25 am »

Johnson's approvals are also very poor for an incumbent PM, and the direction of travel is horrific. So this is a rather strange and curious situation.

You sure about that? BoJo's kept treading water between a small positive and negative, arguably very good for a polarizing time. Not as good as May's honeymoon, but the honeymoon is over for both at this comparitive time. Corbyn needs no introduction. Johnson's only good attribute is that he's a master at crafting a persona that gets people to like him.
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