United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Oryxslayer]

An overall majority like that would be a good result for Johnson, who hasn't exactly run a stellar campaign.

And the overall majority is likely larger since their should be at least 7 non-voting members: 6 is the average Sinn result right now and 1 Lab MP is the speaker.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1202344800562958337

-_-

[Oryxslayer]

I did, however, lose a fight with a letterbox at one point, the results of which are displayed thus.

I can't remember what piece I was reading, but the candidate interviewed said her team always brought spatulas or kitchen tongs  with them while canvassing. She said it helps getting the leaflets in through mail slits...especially when there is an aggressive animal inside.

[Oryxslayer]

Economist Poll of Wrexham. Everything being equal, I don't think we needed this poll, Wrexham was always in the splash zone and probably goes blue even under the scenarios where BoJo fails to get a majority. Interestingly, it's main divergence between YouGov is the Tory/Labour numbers, the minors are all similar overall.

I also don't like that 'don't know' is removed, but that's how polls are presented in the uk.

[Oryxslayer]

G Elliot Morris made an article on the economist about Lib-Dem vote efficiency. This was the leading image, the  only thing not behind the paywall. Frankly, the image is rather juvenile since everyone knows the Lib-Dems defy universal swing and most models. Team Orange surges hard when they target a seat (the target is normally predisposed towards the  Lib-Dems anyway), but gains only a bit outside said targets. This is why the Lib-Dems usually undershoot their polled vote, but overshoot their polled seats: a Lib-Dem voter is usually more educated than the electorate and wants their vote to matter.

[Oryxslayer]

The only CHUK'ers that can survive the sinking ship were those that were smart enough to board the Lib-Dem lifeboats.

[Oryxslayer]

Lets hope the Tories can finish this time around, and win a majority.

No, austerity is cancerous.


Also, just food for thought. While predictions right now are putting Tories on 350, predictions one week out in 2017 had Tories on 370. Just some stuff for though.

While true, it seems as though the Conservatives have avoided a lot of the bad press that hurt them tremendously in 2017. Not to mention the fact that Corbyn hasn't been getting the sort of beneficial press he had that election too

He also had an upward trend whereas this time it seems as if the Conservatives have been able to hold their lead steady. It doesn't help that Corbyn is still way down in preferred PM polls,  a ways below his topline which suggests reluctant voters have already came home. One of the things that I remember from 2017 was me progressively moving the Tory majority down each week, whereas the 340-350 seats for BoJo seems to have been stable since the first days when Labour reconsolidated.

However, the campaign ain't over. There's still a 1v1 debate (in a swingy area, not like deep red Sheffield though), still 6 days of campaigning, polls could be off (likely not in the same way as 2017, but still can benefit Labour), and there could still be a question of vote efficiency. Corbyn certainly has the worse hand, but he still could play for a Lib-SNP-Lab style govt if things turn in his favor.

[Oryxslayer]

Johnson's approvals are also very poor for an incumbent PM, and the direction of travel is horrific. So this is a rather strange and curious situation.

You sure about that? BoJo's kept treading water between a small positive and negative, arguably very good for a polarizing time. Not as good as May's honeymoon, but the honeymoon is over for both at this comparitive time. Corbyn needs no introduction. Johnson's only good attribute is that he's a master at crafting a persona that gets people to like him.

[Oryxslayer]

Johnson's approvals are also very poor for an incumbent PM, and the direction of travel is horrific. So this is a rather strange and curious situation.

You sure about that? BoJo's kept treading water between a small positive and negative, arguably very good for a polarizing time. Not as good as May's honeymoon, but the honeymoon is over for both at this comparitive time. Corbyn needs no introduction. Johnson's only good attribute is that he's a master at crafting a persona that gets people to like him.

Ipsos-MORI's today has him dropping to -20, down from +2 in like a month. That's not great.

Interesting. Wasn't in the (only) approval tracker. Wonder what might have caused his numbers to plummet while the  topline and preferred PM remains stable. Might have something to do with him pissing of the small minority of Trump supporters this week via that gossip video, individuals that were always going to vote Con or Brexit.

Here's the Ipsos/Mori topline, which conforms to the heard:

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202906051651284993

[Oryxslayer]

Yes, there's been no surge in Corbyn's approval rating which was the canary in the coalmine last time.

Anyway a Scottish poll from YouGov. Changes on 2017

SNP 44% (+7)
Conservative 28% (-1)
Labour 15% (-12)
Lib Dem 12% (+5)
Greens 1% (+1)

Interestingly, the Scottish govt is underwater on every issue that was polled: -1 on economy, -4 on Justice, -8 on education, -12 on NHS. In every case, the SNP loses voters from it's 44% topline. Seems clear that Yes/No polarization is carrying the day here.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1202863050434514946

Also, here are the changes with their last Scottish poll. I think it's rather important since such a dramatic Brexit drop points to it being the effect of candidates standing down, meaning that 6% is all in the highlands and borders which the Tories need to defend.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/TheNewEuropean/status/1202926509419368448

Well, Blair had a weird 'labour but not labour' endorsement earlier, Major needed to return the favor

[Oryxslayer]

Obviously there is some disagreement about the historical voting tendencies of the Jewish population, but it is very interesting to see the recent poll with a large majority going to the Tories.

Obviously here in the United States, the Jewish population is overwhelmingly Democratic regardless of income level.

My thought is that it would be that the Jewish population is solidly center-left and resistant to nationalism and social conservatism yet solidly pro-Israel. The Dems fit that bill pretty well, whereas Labour has been less pro-Israel on foreign policy.

Yet, I would think that that would cause Jewish voters to defect to LibDems rather than the Tories - especially today's loony Eurosceptic Tory party.

Also important to keep in mind is that UK Jews are far more likely to be orthodox than American Jews. Given that orthodox enclaves in Brooklyn voted for Trump, it seems possible that Jews in Britain are willing to vote for a nationalist party in their country.

Well, we will get to see how the Jewish vote breaks down between the three parties when presented with three realistic options. The most Jewish constituency, Finchley and Golders Green, has former Jewish Labourite Luciana Berger standing for the Lib-Dems, versus incumbent Mike Freer and Labours Ross Houston. It's one of the seats the Lib-Dems are targeting, and it will likely have one of the largest swings of the night even if Berger fails to take it, since the Lib-Dems got 6.6% last time. By my estimates it's a three way marginal at worst, which makes everything weird.

Frankly, I'm surprised the Tory's don't have mini-Simcha Felders sitting in all three seats, they could easily get away with Orthodox/Traditionalist conservative Jewish Torys here. The closest thing is Villiers in Chipping Barnet.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, it's fairly clear that at least a plurality of Jewish voters in 1997 and 2001 went with Labour (quite probably, and very unusually, with a higher share in 2001 than 1997) and that things would have been rather tight in 2005.* In 2010 it is unlikely that the Jewish electorate was much worse for Labour than the national electorate. Since then relations have obviously deteriorated significantly. A notable thing is that while wards with large Orthodox populations are often strongly Conservative they usually give strikingly low shares of the poll to other parties of the political Right. Historically it was also the case that very affluent wards with large Orthodox populations often elected Liberal councillors or sometimes came close to doing so; this largely died out over the past twenty years, but maybe we'll see a return to form. It seems that ChangeUK did quite well with Jewish voters in the Mickey Mouse European elections this summer, presumably because Berger was a member at the time.

Wonder if Berger being on the Lib-Dem ticket will flip these parts of the Finchley vote Orange. That seat is kinda a three-way marginal right now with the Lib-Dems pushing hard for both sides of the community (former labour for secular Jews, Jewish for Orthodox). I was reminded of Lieberman in South Brooklyn when you described these wards. The region normally went overwhelmingly Democrat or overwhelmingly republican based on local issues, but recently has seemingly moved into increasing alignment with the overwhelmingly GOP side. 2000 exemplifies this 'community swing' the best, with the Brooklyn Hasidim region being more democratic than the Brooklyn minority precincts. This was all thanks to the Democrats putting Lieberman, a Jew, in the VP slot. Perhaps the Lib-Dems nominating a Jew against two other non-Jews is enough to flip overwhelming Con wards to overwhelming Lib-Dem wards in this seat (I'm not daft enough to think this occurs outside her constituency).

[Oryxslayer]

But outside the U.S., Jews mostly vote on economic interests, which sometimes (Canada, Britain) means being right-wing, but in some places is more ambiguous (France).

The Jewish community in Canada votes mostly Liberal.

I thought it was swingy based on denomination. If it isn't then that's my fault for believing the toplines from the 905 York seats.

[Oryxslayer]

How’s the debate going so far

Seems to have both been okay for BoJo and Corbyn failed to land crushing points. We will see a larger BoJo lead in the YouGov snap poll than last time. Comparing it to last time is the only thing inferable from these snap polls.

Edit: Well, 1% gained from last time is 1%. Strange, I thought BoJo did better and Corbyn worse than last time.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203065256249110528

[Oryxslayer]

YouGov MRP will be updated on Tuesday, December 10th at 22:00.

[Oryxslayer]

Any idea about seat projections?

Electoral Calculus is currently predicting a Conservative majority of 20 with an overall 64% probability of a Conservative majority.

With SF no taking their seats is that not de facto majority of 27

SF are on average set to lose one seat next week - most likely Foyle, but there are two potential others. However, it's still a 27 majority because the speaker now is Labour, so there's an extra nonvoting opposition member.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203347824789856256

If this is replicated in the rest of the weekend polls then Labour may still have some fight left in them. Compared to their last weekend poll, Labour still gains, but it is less stark - that was similarly a 10% Tory lead but both Labour and the Conservatives had higher percentages.

But why do I advise caution? Last time Comres had a 5% Other vote - a extreme outlier when polling just GB, with no NI polled (PC only gets 1%, SNP is polled and gets 3 to 4% but the tweet has character limits). So we should wait and see if this is replicated in the multitude of other weekend polls.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203347824789856256

If this is replicated in the rest of the weekend polls then Labour may still have some fight left in them. Compared to their last weekend poll, Labour still gains, but it is less stark - that was similarly a 10% Tory lead but both Labour and the Conservatives had higher percentages.

But why do I advise caution? Last time Comres had a 5% Other vote - a extreme outlier when polling just GB, with no NI polled (PC only gets 1%, SNP is polled and gets 3 to 4% but the tweet has character limits). So we should wait and see if this is replicated in the multitude of other weekend polls.

I got a bad feeling about this.  Nightmares of 2017

I mean if BoJo is actually at 9%, we should expect outliers of 6% and 12% to show up. If they didn't, one would suspect herding is occurring similar to 2017. So there are two different stories here, dependent on the rest of the pack.

[Oryxslayer]

Tory 15pt lead with Opinium.

And just like that we get the outlier at the other end of the spectrum.

Seems clear were getting a good spread. At the minimum this means polls have to be systematically off in their methods for shock errors, rather than them getting good results and throwing them out to conform with the herd.

[Oryxslayer]

Three more constituency polls, from three varying seats.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203396078604865536

I currently consider this a three-way tossup, and similarly does YouGov. When presented with two way battles between Lib-Dems and Labour, the race remains marginal. Essentially, it's an unknown if non-Tory votes can or even want to consolidate here.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394680697872387

This once was a three way marginal, but it has slid off the triple  battlefield, prompting the question of where the Lib-Dem base would go. Turns out that answer was nowhere. Conservatives win in both a Blue-Red and a Blue-Orange hypothetical if only one had a realistic opportunity here. Numbers align with YouGov's projection.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320

I knew I was right to give this Surrey Lib-Dem target to them in my model. Between this and Raab's seat the Lib-Dems look to be having goo night in in this Remain area. Conservatives lose in every prompted realistic 2-way matchup. This seat voted fairly hard for remain, and had a Lib-dem base in 2017. It's also an open seat theoretically since Milton has been forced to stand as an indie. YouGov has the seat as lean Conservative, but there is a lot of Lib-Dem and Tory crossover, and I don't need to repeat myself on how every swing model, even YouGov's, unshoots the parties that focus on specific targets rather than the entire board.

[Oryxslayer]

snip

I knew I was right to give this Surrey Lib-Dem target to them in my model. Conservatives lose in every prompted realistic 2-way matchup. This seat voted fairly hard for remain, and had a Lib-dem base in 2017. It's also an open seat. YouGov has the seat as lean Conservative, but there is a lot of Lib-Dem and Tory crossover, and I don't need to repeat myself on how every swing model, even YouGov's, unshoots the parties that focus on specific targets rather than the entire board.

Worth noting these are all nearly a week old and date from when Labour was closer to 10 points down on average compared with 6-7 now. Putney could be a Labour lead now and Southport a tie.

Completely agree with you about Guildford and the Lib Dems, though. The rumours on the ground there are, if anything, even more encouraging than they've been in Esher & Walton.

On that subject, the Tories seem to have actually shown up to campaign for the first time in weeks. I spotted two or three new Tory lawn signs this evening, still outnumbered by Lib Dems, though - and this is in the *suuuuper* Tory part of the ward (Cobham). My partner went to an even in Walton today with Gina Miller and the actor Hugh Grant. Said there was great turnout.

It's reached the  point where I would be surprised if Esher & Walton doesn't come in as marginal Raab hold or better for the Lib-Dems next week. Raab has screwed up badly and he's in the part of the country where BoJo's 'Get Brexit Done' can't pull many favors.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1203424054360903680

Deltapoll's national weekend numbers.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203427476254478336

YouGov's weekend poll.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm surprised Anne Milton is doing so badly, I'd have thought a sitting MP would be more competitive. She supports a second referendum I think too. Was she a bad MP?

Milton’s not particularly well known, unlike Grieve who has been a prominent anti-Johnson and anti-Brexit Tory since way back when. The Liberal Democrats have also declined to stand aside for her (unlike for Grieve) and this constituency has historically been fairly strong territory for them - Milton actually took it off them in 2005 and they’ve been consistently in the top two in the seat since the days of the Alliance.

I don’t actually believe the Liberal Democrats will win it (nor Esher & Walton); they were thirty points behind here in 2017 and, regardless of how good their ground game is, I don’t see them overcoming that in an election where they end up on 11-12% nationally and the Tories are at around 42%.

I hope I don't need to give the writeup again on how the Lib-Dem strategy of: target a handful intensively rather than play for 632, a brand of "not Con" or "not Lab," and voter activation leads towards these large swings and them always underperforming their polled percentage but overperforming their polled seats. The potential Lib-Dem voter is more educated, more fiscally stable, and in tune with the political winds, so they are more likely to vote tactically for Blue/Red and hide the true Lib-Dem availability of the voters. They may not take the seats, but the Lib-Dems have overtaken huge majorities before and will again.

[Oryxslayer]

I got Southport as remain with my 2016 data.