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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 78759 times)
DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1675 on: January 03, 2020, 01:52:37 am »
« edited: January 03, 2020, 02:02:52 am by DistingFlyer »

Here's a map indicating both constituencies that changed hands and marginals that didn't (or, to put it another way, all marginals as well as non-marginals that changed hands).

The picture on the left shows the pre-election situation, and the one on the right shows the 2019 results. Constituencies aren't shaded according to my usual system, but simply colored according to marginal (<10%), moderate (10-25%) or safe (>25%).

If nothing else, it can provide a useful quick-glance guide as to how different parts of the country shifted.




To compare/contrast, here's one for the last election:


Here's one for 1997:


And here's one for 1979:
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1676 on: January 09, 2020, 07:54:54 am »

A similar chart to what I put up earlier; this one, instead of comparing the swing to gains made as a % of marginals, compares the swing to the so-called 'effective swing' - that is, the swing that would notionally provide the number of net gains that actually were made (for instance, the 144th most vulnerable Tory-Labour seat in 1997 needed a 12.4% swing for it to fall, while the 53rd most vulnerable Labour-Tory seat in 2019 needed a 5.6% swing).

The graph produces very similar - though not exactly the same - results as the earlier one.

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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1677 on: January 09, 2020, 11:49:25 am »

What the two almost identical outcomes in the bottom corner?
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1678 on: January 09, 2020, 12:28:39 pm »

What the two almost identical outcomes in the bottom corner?

1951 & 1959.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1679 on: January 09, 2020, 12:48:08 pm »


So where's 1955? Wink
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1680 on: January 09, 2020, 01:28:26 pm »


Have never seen notional 1951 results on the new boundaries, so didn't include it. Originally didn't put in February 1974 until I finally found some redistributed 1970 figures.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1681 on: January 09, 2020, 05:24:31 pm »

Looking at cumulative swings, here is a map showing the accumulated Tory-Labour swing from 1997 to 2019. Have only included England & Wales, given the rise of the SNP in Scotland.



Here's one illustrating the accumulated swing as it differs from the overall national swing over the same time (12.3%):
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1682 on: January 09, 2020, 08:49:50 pm »

Looking at cumulative swings, here is a map showing the accumulated Tory-Labour swing from 1997 to 2019. Have only included England & Wales, given the rise of the SNP in Scotland.



Here's one illustrating the accumulated swing as it differs from the overall national swing over the same time (12.3%):


Any reason why Merseyside is the one area to swing towards Labour?  it seems Liverpool area has a viscereal hatred of Tories and votes more heavily Labour than anywhere else.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1683 on: January 09, 2020, 09:12:44 pm »
« Edited: January 09, 2020, 09:17:54 pm by Trends are real, and I f**king hate it »

I assume you mean that the first map is swing and the second one is trend? It would be easier on us if we all stuck to Atlas lingo on this.

Also, I'd be very interested in seeing swing maps from 2010 and 1992, both elections that had more comparable Tory margins.
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Intell
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« Reply #1684 on: January 09, 2020, 09:17:42 pm »

Looking at cumulative swings, here is a map showing the accumulated Tory-Labour swing from 1997 to 2019. Have only included England & Wales, given the rise of the SNP in Scotland.



Here's one illustrating the accumulated swing as it differs from the overall national swing over the same time (12.3%):


Any reason why Merseyside is the one area to swing towards Labour?  it seems Liverpool area has a viscereal hatred of Tories and votes more heavily Labour than anywhere else.

They don't read the sun, and the popular paper is the daily mirror.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1685 on: January 10, 2020, 05:36:41 am »

Sun readers often "trend" to the Daily Mail when older, so Merseyside is mostly spared that as well.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1686 on: January 10, 2020, 09:50:14 am »

Sometimes we can forget the obvious because it is almost too obvious: Boris Johnson has repeatedly made unpleasant remarks about Liverpool over the years, and this fact is not unknown in the city or the wider region.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1687 on: January 10, 2020, 11:57:19 am »

I'd be hesistant to overstate the influence of the tabloids. That is, the vast majority of non-geriatrics read neither the Sun nor the Mirror, and their continued influence broadly comes down to their ability to set the agenda that the rest of the media (TV news in particular) follow. And it's not as if Scousers are less inclined to watch TV...

Possibly you also have some degree of the impact of Thatcherism on the city, including the way that her government responded to Hillsborough; the final decline and death of Northern Ireland inspired Protestant Unionism as a relevant force in the city; even the fact it is a port city (you know, superficial similarities with Bristol here) with a very distinct identity. I'm not sure in any case, just speculating.

In that respect, it's also interesting that even after the much talked about disaster in December; both Lancashire and Yorkshire as a whole seem to have still trended left relative to 1997.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1688 on: January 10, 2020, 01:33:03 pm »

Yes, one thing that's often missed is that working-class Toryism was a meaningful phenomenon up until 1992 at the very latest - in some places, it wasn't really swept away at a local level until the rise of UKIP (and in other places it actually provided the bulk of the pre-2010 Lib Dem vote.) It wasn't in exactly the same places as where the Tories gained in 2019 (though there is some overlap), but arguably the voters they've gained now look quite demographically similar to working-class Tories from three decades ago
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Farmlands
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« Reply #1689 on: January 10, 2020, 06:23:08 pm »

I'd be hesistant to overstate the influence of the tabloids. That is, the vast majority of non-geriatrics read neither the Sun nor the Mirror, and their continued influence broadly comes down to their ability to set the agenda that the rest of the media (TV news in particular) follow. And it's not as if Scousers are less inclined to watch TV...

When it comes to television, I've noticed BBC in particular being singled out the most during this election, for slanted coverage towards the Conservatives, by several Labour activists. Of course, the other side of the political aisle has been saying the exact opposite for years, so, if anything, that only makes me believe it's an unbiased station even more.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1690 on: January 10, 2020, 06:24:30 pm »

How come Staffordshire has seen a much harder swing to right.  It seems Tory vote there has soared and in Stoke on Trent almost tripled in last decade.  During Blair era, Tories languished in teens there, now they are getting over 50% there.  While you've seen other shifts, I don't believe any quite as dramatic.  Only other I can think of is Durham County but being quite rural and white, Tory share of the vote seemed unusually low for its demographics.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1691 on: January 11, 2020, 12:38:35 am »
« Edited: January 11, 2020, 12:52:20 am by DistingFlyer »

Here are swing/trend maps for all six elections (2001 through 2019) that were represented cumulatively in the previous maps.


2001 - overall swing 1.8% to Conservatives


2005 - 3.2% to Conservatives


2010 - 5.1% to Conservatives (Scotland saw a small Labour swing, which meant that most areas in England & Wales saw above-average Tory swings)


2015 - 0.4% to Labour


2017 - 2.0% to Labour


2019 - 4.6% to Conservatives



East Sussex & Merseyside trended toward Labour each time, while Essex & Lincolnshire trended away.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1692 on: January 11, 2020, 07:28:07 am »

How come Staffordshire has seen a much harder swing to right.  It seems Tory vote there has soared and in Stoke on Trent almost tripled in last decade.  During Blair era, Tories languished in teens there, now they are getting over 50% there.  While you've seen other shifts, I don't believe any quite as dramatic.  Only other I can think of is Durham County but being quite rural and white, Tory share of the vote seemed unusually low for its demographics.

This, perhaps?
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1693 on: January 11, 2020, 10:30:34 am »
« Edited: January 11, 2020, 10:38:10 am by DistingFlyer »

Here are ones for 1983 through 1997:


1983 - 4.1% overall swing to Conservatives


1987 - 1.8% to Labour


1992 - 2.1% to Labour (as with 2010, Scotland swung in the opposite direction to the rest of Britain, so most of England & Wales gets an above-average swing)


1997 - 10.3% to Labour
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #1694 on: January 11, 2020, 01:51:18 pm »

2019 - 4.6% to Conservatives



East Sussex & Merseyside trended toward Labour each time, while Essex & Lincolnshire trended away.

Is there some sort of dialect thing that the map on the right links onto, at least in southern England? I feel like I've seen some dialect map where London, Cornwall, and points in between map onto one thing and Essex and the rest map onto something else. Just thinking linguistically. I feel like Al should know this Wink
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1695 on: January 14, 2020, 04:13:30 pm »

One more swing chart - this one compares the overall national swing figure with the swing in Labour-Tory marginals.

Once again, not a huge difference between this chart and the others, though the 2001 & 2015 figures are much further below the line here than on the others. For that matter, 2017 is much higher than on the others (the swing in Labour-held marginals was higher than in Tory ones, so fewer gains were made), while 1992 is a little lower (it was the opposite of 2017, with Labour getting bigger swings in Tory targets than in their own seats).

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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1696 on: February 01, 2020, 04:56:19 pm »

Looking at cumulative swings, here's a map showing the last three elections (2015 through 2019):




If you just want to see the last two, post-referendum, elections, here are cumulative swings for those:

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Antonio V
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« Reply #1697 on: February 01, 2020, 05:05:08 pm »

So just to be clear, the first one is 2010-2019 swing and the other 2015-2019?
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1698 on: February 01, 2020, 05:07:25 pm »

So just to be clear, the first one is 2010-2019 swing and the other 2015-2019?


Yes (that is, 2010 results compared with 2019, and 2015 compared with 2019).



For further comparison, here's a constituency-based (as opposed to the local authorities) map of the 2016 referendum results:

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Antonio V
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« Reply #1699 on: February 01, 2020, 05:30:50 pm »

Thanks! Fascinating maps.
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