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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 76293 times)
CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #225 on: November 03, 2019, 04:44:46 am »

More polls, and I'm sure they will bring clarit... oh...

Opinium: Con 42, Lab 26, LDem 16, Brexit 9, SNP 4, Greens 2, Others 2
ORB: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 14, Brexit 12 (no further details)

Also, there was a Panelbase yesterday - was it reported here? Can't recall. If not...

Panelbase: Con 40, Lab 29, LDem 14, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

There's more, because, you know, the Sunday papers...

Deltapoll: Con 40, Lab 28, LDem 14, BP 11, SNP 3, Greens 2, Others 2
YouGov: Con 39, Lab 27, LDem 16, BP 7, Others ?
ComRes: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 17, BP 10, SNP 4, Greens 3, Others 1

Labour up six points with YouGov in a matter of days, actually down with ComRes - very much against the trend (though they have consistently been the least favourable pollster for the Tories recently)
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vileplume
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« Reply #226 on: November 03, 2019, 05:12:15 am »

US House seats are like 10 times the size (typical population of like 700,000 people) of a UK Parliament constituency (typical population of like 70,000 people). They are correspondingly much easier to poll.

Well British constituencies are drawn based on registered electorate not on population so they will all in reality have populations significantly larger than their registered electorate of ~75,000. However the point does stand, constituency polling is atrocious in the UK. Lord Ashcroft invested a lot of money doing them for the 2015 election but they were all way wide of the mark (in this case they tended to massively underestimate the Tories and massively overestimate the Lib Dems).
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #227 on: November 03, 2019, 05:55:14 am »

I get a kick out of the lefties posting here who say the 2019 British election will run along basically on the same track as 2017.. 

Will the 2020 US election run along the same track as 2016?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #228 on: November 03, 2019, 06:37:43 am »

How many seats is the Brexit Party likely to win?

They aren't "likely" to win any, and have non-negligible chances in maybe half a dozen.
Probably if they are over 10% nationally they'd win 1 or 2 seats I guess. Their importance right now is how many votes will they take from the Conservatives, right?
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #229 on: November 03, 2019, 06:55:38 am »

I’m embarrassed FOR Nigel Farage. He’s literally “leading a party” and not standing in the election.

Pathetic
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DaWN
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« Reply #230 on: November 03, 2019, 06:59:33 am »



Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)
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jaichind
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« Reply #231 on: November 03, 2019, 07:04:08 am »



Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)

I thought the LAB position is that when then come to power they will negotiate a new deal with the EU and then have a referendum where they will campaign against the deal they just negotiated? 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #232 on: November 03, 2019, 07:48:16 am »

The Labour position on Brexit can best be summarized as confusion. This could be a problem if the election becomes a single-issue focused campaign, and they are forced to take a side that will either anger London or the North.

In other news, Farage right now is not going to stand for a Westminster seat in December. I guess he sees the trendlines and recognizes that brexit won't be winning any seats, even with his star power? Who knows, especially in the context of last weeks debate on the party standing candidates.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #233 on: November 03, 2019, 08:05:48 am »



Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)

Labour will have another referendum with a remain option within months, if it wins.

Almost certainly, people in the party will be allowed to campaign for either side (as with Wilson in '75) This may not satisfy Remainiac purists, but might actually go down OK with many voters.

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Ishan
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« Reply #234 on: November 03, 2019, 10:03:27 am »



Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)

Labour will have another referendum with a remain option within months, if it wins.

Almost certainly, people in the party will be allowed to campaign for either side (as with Wilson in '75) This may not satisfy Remainiac purists, but might actually go down OK with many voters.


If they campaign on Leave, the Lib Dems will make sure that the people will never forget that.
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jaichind
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« Reply #235 on: November 03, 2019, 10:11:13 am »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lib-dems-greens-and-plaid-cymru-in-remain-pact-to-repeat-brecon-win-clrnch62m

"Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru in ‘remain pact’ to repeat Brecon win"

Looks like a LDEM-PC-Green alliance in Wales.  While I am sure this will hurt CON in a few seats as well LAB in a few as well I suspect this might trigger BXP->CON tactical voting in response.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #236 on: November 03, 2019, 10:33:35 am »
« Edited: November 03, 2019, 10:38:42 am by ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 »

Does that mean Mark Williams won't stand in Ceredigion? I can't see the Libs wanting to surrender one of their few potential gains in Wales, but that seat is potentially vulnerable to both Labour and the Tories in the right conditions.

Edit: ceredigion is exempt, williams is standing again. Quite likely a Lib gain then, plaid vote here is pretty inflexible and we'll expect a lot of Lab to Lib movement.
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cp
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« Reply #237 on: November 03, 2019, 10:57:17 am »
« Edited: November 03, 2019, 11:01:09 am by cp »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lib-dems-greens-and-plaid-cymru-in-remain-pact-to-repeat-brecon-win-clrnch62m

"Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru in ‘remain pact’ to repeat Brecon win"

Looks like a LDEM-PC-Green alliance in Wales.  While I am sure this will hurt CON in a few seats as well LAB in a few as well I suspect this might trigger BXP->CON tactical voting in response.

Perhaps, but any such move will face the considerable headwind of both Tory and Brexit Party leaders and candidates explicitly disavowing such behaviour.

Beyond that, the unspoken premise of such a move-countermove dynamic is that Brexit is going to be the primary motivator of peoples' votes. You can make a case for why it might be, but I think the opposite case is much easier to make - and more convincing.
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jaichind
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« Reply #238 on: November 03, 2019, 11:23:06 am »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lib-dems-greens-and-plaid-cymru-in-remain-pact-to-repeat-brecon-win-clrnch62m

"Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru in ‘remain pact’ to repeat Brecon win"

Looks like a LDEM-PC-Green alliance in Wales.  While I am sure this will hurt CON in a few seats as well LAB in a few as well I suspect this might trigger BXP->CON tactical voting in response.

Perhaps, but any such move will face the considerable headwind of both Tory and Brexit Party leaders and candidates explicitly disavowing such behaviour.

Beyond that, the unspoken premise of such a move-countermove dynamic is that Brexit is going to be the primary motivator of peoples' votes. You can make a case for why it might be, but I think the opposite case is much easier to make - and more convincing.

You could be right. I am just going off my view that attempts at identity based consolidation works like jujitsu or second mover advantage where the side that makes an open attempt at consolidating votes usually does not get as much out of it as it thinks and counter-consolidation in response tend to be stronger.  This is why I think any sort of CON-BXP deal would be disastrous for CON and that CON-BXP tactical voting work best in response to an external threat (Remainder alliance, Corbyn coming in with LDEM-SNP support, SNP holding the balance of power to trigger English nationalism tactical voting etc etc) and not any explicit attempt to reach such a deal. 
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afleitch
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« Reply #239 on: November 03, 2019, 11:33:58 am »

No polls out of Scotland, but for fun here's the average of all the subsamples since the campaign period.

SNP 45
CON 20
LAB 15
LIB 11
BRX 6
GRN 3
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #240 on: November 03, 2019, 01:17:54 pm »

I mean Plaid standing down in some heavily Anglophone constituencies where they are a fringe party in exchange for the LibDems standing down in some heavily Welsh-speaking constituencies where they've not polled well since the 1960s has... what effect, exactly?
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jeron
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« Reply #241 on: November 03, 2019, 01:37:35 pm »

I mean Plaid standing down in some heavily Anglophone constituencies where they are a fringe party in exchange for the LibDems standing down in some heavily Welsh-speaking constituencies where they've not polled well since the 1960s has... what effect, exactly?

It could make a difference in the marginal seats. Plaid won in Arfon by just 94 votes in 2017.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #242 on: November 03, 2019, 02:17:39 pm »



Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)

Labour will have another referendum with a remain option within months, if it wins.

Almost certainly, people in the party will be allowed to campaign for either side (as with Wilson in '75) This may not satisfy Remainiac purists, but might actually go down OK with many voters.


If they campaign on Leave, the Lib Dems will make sure that the people will never forget that.

It is pretty inconceivable that most in the party will campaign to leave whatever happens.

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jaichind
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« Reply #243 on: November 03, 2019, 03:17:08 pm »
« Edited: November 03, 2019, 03:54:02 pm by jaichind »

Latest Yougov poll (change from same poll from a couple of days ago)

CON    39 (+3)
LAB     27 (+6)
LDEM   16 (-2)
BXP       7 (-6)
Green    4 (-2)

Leavers
CON    66  (+9)
LAB     10  (+3)
LDEM    3  (-2)
BXP     15 (-11)
Green    1 (-1)

Remainders
CON   17  (--)
LAB    41 (+9)
LDEM  28 (-6)
Green   6 (-2)

Leavers consolidating around CON and Remainders shifting to LAB but CON stronger with Remainders than LAB is with Leaves with LDEM losing ground.

Edit: fixed typo on LAB change
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #244 on: November 03, 2019, 03:47:13 pm »

That's the one I referred to above, Labour are up 6 points not 3.
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jaichind
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« Reply #245 on: November 03, 2019, 03:54:16 pm »

That's the one I referred to above, Labour are up 6 points not 3.

Opps .. typo ...
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DaWN
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« Reply #246 on: November 03, 2019, 03:56:50 pm »

Well, we're getting Hard Brexit then. If Remainers are going to vote Labour after everything they've done to scupper Remain, then there's no chance of stopping it. I wish I could look forward to the surprise and outrage when they and the Tories work together to deliver it and saying I told you so, but I can't even do that...
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #247 on: November 03, 2019, 04:37:47 pm »

Labour are never going to work with the Tories to deliver a version of Brexit that they haven't written.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #248 on: November 03, 2019, 05:05:32 pm »

Well, we're getting Hard Brexit then. If Remainers are going to vote Labour after everything they've done to scupper Remain, then there's no chance of stopping it. I wish I could look forward to the surprise and outrage when they and the Tories work together to deliver it and saying I told you so, but I can't even do that...

We will certainly get hard Brexit if large number of "remainers" waste their votes on the LibDems or Greens in seats that they could not possibly win, but Labour might.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #249 on: November 03, 2019, 05:09:07 pm »

Labour isn't going to win Hornchurch and Upminster or Romford, so I can happily vote my conscience there.
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