United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Oryxslayer]

More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).

What do you think Long's chances are in Belfast East? 

Not OP but I suspect Long is going back to Westminster. The Alliance is the only NI party with any sense of 'momentun:' the Sinners and DUP are down from their 2017 high and the SDLP/UUP are trading a consistent and long-term stable vote share for actual seats. But beyond her the Alliance's prospects lower, even with their momentum. For more check out this (now outdated) analysis I snagged from a Northern Irishman from another forum.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1191412011311288320

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1191696726140293122

First poll I have seen in a while of any sort that is so favorable to potential PM BoJo. This is probably why the Northern Wales seats are all on the Tory target list at the moment.

[Oryxslayer]

Oh and here's another constituency poll I picked up while at the Britain Elects twitter handle. This one certainly seems like the kind of consituency poll that is off because of the natural barriers to polling a single constituency.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1191341879599734784

EDIT: and here is one that seems more reasonable:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1191704005451427841

[Oryxslayer]

Philip Hammond is standing down in Runnymead and Weybridge, will not run in 2019.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192142522782539776

[Oryxslayer]

Bad news: Lady Sylvia Hermon is retiring.

Perhaps she thinks she won't win after the DUP gave her a close scare last time around. Any chance for someone other than the DUP (maybe the Alliance if they can get the Greens to stand down, or vice versa?) to win the seat?

There was rumors today that Upper Bann would be vacated by the expected Carla Lockhart, and replaced with DUP leader Arlene Foster. With North  Down now open and a 'gimmi' pickup for the DUP, at least on paper, Foster probably goes there if those rumors  had any leg to them.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192175698431090692?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

Otherwise  known as the 2017/18 GOP 'strategy.'

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192350770156507136

Consistent with my big post here on how the best place for Swinson's Lib-Dems in not just London but perhaps the entire country this cycle could be the wealthiest and whitest slice of london, a slice that extends outwards into Raab's seat.

[Oryxslayer]

[broken images]

Here's the full list of 'electoral pact' seats negotiated between the remain alliance.

[Oryxslayer]

Full map of the Remain Alliance. I suspect it contains a lot of the LDs main defense and top targets, Notable missing seats:

-St Albans
-Cities of London and Westminster
-Putney
-Kingston and Surbiton
-Cambridge
-Carshalton and Wallington
-Ceredigion still remains a LD/PC grudge match

-Eastbourne remains a peculiar seat for both the LDs and 'their' incumbent.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1192534158574280705

I guess survation is releasing one  of these every day.

[Oryxslayer]

YouGov regional polls. I'm not sure if these are usual subsample breakdowns or individual polls for each region. In general, the trend is Tories up in North, Lib dems up in South.

[Oryxslayer]

I am wondering why the CON want to block the LDEM from being in the debates.  I would think the CON strategy should be to lower the LAB vote no matter how and what.  Even if the LAB vote does not go CON but goes to LDEM or BXP that is fine because if the LAB vote is down and down a lot, seats will show up for the CON.

Yep, Con strategy should be to be throwing as many softballs and Swinson as possible. Sure, they may lose seats in the south when the oranges pick up steam, but it will more than pay off in the north. Basically the Harper strategy back when the NDP was a serious possibility: force Lib voters to pick NDP or Con, and more seats will pick Con. Swinson is no way as radical as the NDP except in the Brexit issue, so it's in the Tories interest to construct a dichotomy between their leave and the LD Remain, in an attempt to force Lab voters to pick a side.

[Oryxslayer]

There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

But how are old people a renewable resource? Two ways. The first is turnout, when you are younger you are more likely to vote if you are an activist. The self-constructed barriers to entry are higher when one is 18 than when one is 60. This leads to a predictable turnout curve in every non-mandatory election anywhere, the youth will always vote less then the eldarly, and the sample of the youth that is voting are those with a higher political interest. As one gets older, the barriers lower and the 'quiet' voters enter the pool, allowing parties to survive with only minimal reference to the activist part. The second way is that ideologies and issues change, and parties follow their voters. If the general electorate has reached a consensus on a issue, then parties ride or die. New issues rise up, the parties battle over them, and when victory occurs the other convert. When one 'greys' the issues that you fought for in your youth will no longer drive the great battles of govt, and new issues that you always held opinions on may align said voter to another party.

For example, one can make the argument that Brexit is this type of issue. Tories can't win long term on stuff like the NHS, May got eviscerated when she tried that platform last time. But the EU and Brexit have been long term issues and those entering the 'grey-zone' are happy to fight for it. I'll make a  bet now that Boris's tory platform will be relatively moderate compared to those  past, except the most frequent keyword will be Brexit. In part this is because  of his ideological flexibility, in part because the 'greys' he wants to win from post-industrial labour would be put off if he did anything other than carry the brexit flag. In 20 years, theres a good chance  Brexit won't be the big issue, something new will come up for the voters to fight over. That's life.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1193258215494078465

Guess it's time for the regularly scheduled  weekend poll drop. Overall, Opinium's numbers and changes match the general trend from last week: Lab up a bit, Lib-Dems down a bit, but everyone's overall rather stable except Brexit. Brexit keeps falling and I wouldn't be surprised if they wind up a zombie party.

[Oryxslayer]

Scotland post-indyref has seen an unusual level of tactical voting between the Unionists, which produces the massive 20% swings that have become normal if the geographic territory in question was last contested in 2015/16. Now the tactical voting is not absolute, but it's more then what goes on to the south. Since the SNP are pushing IndyRef2 this time much harder, perhaps tactical voting will be even more  strategic. Likely won't benefit the tories, their still losing seats, but maybe the others will do decently.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC reports the Greens are not fielding a candidate against Iain Duncan Smith and endorse Labour in bid to take him  down.

[Oryxslayer]

One rumor that I have seen going around concerning farage is that he may have financial issues. The party was always fueled by the tory grassroots and so once the Conservatives returned to their commanding position, the money dried up. Those backers that still remain want him to cooperate with the Tories and push them further right, not compromise Brexit for Farage's ego. Which is why the man is begging for the Tories to reach out, and now stepped down in their seats.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1194285159538970624

Okay so the first DDoS was the probe?

[Oryxslayer]

They did last time. Not necessarily a guarantee that they do this time.

Rule one of elections: Cherry Picking or throwing out polls means you are biased or an idiot, unless said polls were  commissioned by Mclaughlin. Instead you weight/average said polls and look at the overall trends, which right now all look like this, even though there is some MOE disagreement by a point or 2 depending on your weights.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1194327946107867137

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, the SNP have now joined the LibDems and filed a legal suit with ITV over their decision to make the first debate 1v1. The SNP is citing their position as 3rd largest party, the LibDems cited their competitive poll numbers, numbers that are similar to what Clegg had before the surge. Essentially ITV needed to set out SOME parameters for getting into their debate, they could have been high AF and restricted it to the top two, but setting out none and saying top two looks like you're playing favorites.

[Oryxslayer]

Huh, why is the SDLP surging back into relevance all of a sudden?

They are seriously contesting, and potentially likely to win two seats. Foyle has their leader running and its a straight Sinn/SDLP fight there so nobody fears vote splits. South Belfast is kinda a three way, but the DUP are sending out feelers that the seat may already be lost, we just don't know if its going to be to the Alliance or to SDLP. There is also the cross-party endorsements and stand-downs that occurred between the remainers. Contrast this with the UUP who are failing to find good candidates and only really have a shot in F&S and maybe north down if they become the anti-DUP candidate, not the Alliance. But those two are tossups at best, whereas the SLDP's were potentially leaning in their favor before today. Now South Down may even be in the cards.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1195020836652113920

Just something interesting I saw, and one of the (many) reasons why there is a lot of potential energy trapped right now waiting to explode and throw polling one one of countless directions.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195357004337840128

Continued proof that Brexit was just the holding pen for future tories.