United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[DaWN]

It's almost as though remainers want to do what it takes to, you know, remain.

By supporting a man who's done nothing but support Brexit for years? Brilliant logic. I guess in your view a great way for Democrats to get rid of Republicans in 2020 is to vote for Trump?

Wow, not only do you have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to those named MPs in particular, let alone many of the other Remainer Labour MPs who also understand that the Remain movement is bigger than Labour

Single MPs don't have the room to be independent mavericks in these hyper-polarised, charged up times. We saw that in the last parliament when MPs with years of service to the Conservative Party, including Ken Clarke, a man who served as a Tory chancellor and was Father of the House, were unceremoniously booted for opposing the party line on Brexit. I'm happy to bet a similar occurrence will take place in a Corbyn-led government.

And I can tell you've never met a Corbynite if you think they prioritise Remain over Corbyn Worship

but that would be a fantastic way for Corbyn to lose valuable, super marginal seats, then.

He's been doing nothing but supporting Brexit for years and his reward is about to be millions of remainers happily voting for him. I think it's a risk he'll take based on that.

--

My overall point was nothing to do with Corbyn anyway. It was that these Lib Dems are self-defeating idiots who have taken down the party's vote share by at least a few points and I'm surprised some are so dismissive of it. They've come out and said 'don't vote for us'. There's a massive difference between doing a non-existent campaign (which they easily could have done if they wanted these Corbyn Mouthpieces re-elected) and making a public display that their own party doesn't matter. If this is a message that gets repeated any further, its the end in any LD-Lab contests and is an easy print on every Tory leaflet in every Con-LD contest ("Vote Lib Dem Get Corbyn"). It's because of poor message discipline and that there's yet to be a strong rebuttal from the leadership speaks volumes. The downward trajectory of the party going into the campaign was probably inevitable but this event could well hasten and amplify the decline. Which leaves Remainers with Mr 7/10 as our spokesman.

[DaWN]

DaWN what do you see as the realistic best case scenario for the election? It seems to me that since only Labour or the conservatives can realistically form the government, in most constituencies people should vote Labour even if they aren't enthusiastically for Corbyn.

Some kind of Labour-Lib Dem agreement probably. But even that comes with a few caveats
1) I'm not sure Lab+LD on their own reaching a majority counts as realistic and any government with the SNP in it is not a government worth having
2) The Lib Dems have not exactly proven themselves as the sharpest party of them all over the last few days so their ability to actually stop Corbyn doing anything bad is probably limited
3) Let's not forget what happened the last time the Lib Dems went into a coalition... so their ability to actually stop Corbyn doing anything bad is probably limited.

I've been resigned to a bad election outcome for a long time though.

EDIT: It also doesn't mean I think Labour deserves the vote of any Remainer because they don't

[DaWN]

How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.

He's very polarising and if he turns up in a marginal (which the party leaders will) then roughly half of the people there hate his guts- out of that half, there's bound to be people willing to yell at him. The same thing will certainly happen to Corbyn and quite possibly some of the lesser leaders as well. It's the way of things, for better or worse (alright, definitely for worse).

[DaWN]

In a surreal turn, here we see Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn photographed holding a blu-ray of a fanmade spinoff movie of an obscure Doctor Who villain from the 1980s. I wish this was fake.

[DaWN]

Incidentally, would it be possible to like, ban anyone with a US IP address from posting in this thread or something?

That's not entirely fair as quite a few Americans have made some good posts in this thread. We shouldn't lump these good posters in with MillenialModerate etc. who clearly are talking out of their arses.

[DaWN]

In a surreal turn, here we see Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn photographed holding a blu-ray of a fanmade spinoff movie of an obscure Doctor Who villain from the 1980s. I wish this was fake.

Sil. Arguably a parody of the sort of capitalist Thatcher made common...

I know perfectly well who it is lol. Doctor Who has a proud history of political analogy but I'm not sure Sil was one of its strongest examples.

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1195414027909894146

Ah, good, something about trains. I can finally get into my element. And its a distraction from all the depressing Brexit sh!t.

TL;DR: This is a very stupid idea from a very stupid person in a very stupid party who doesn't have a leg to stand on when accusing Comrade Useless of ill-considered spending plans.

Beeching was an exceptionally unfortunate inevitability of years of mismanagement of the railways. Did it go too far? Absolutely. Was it, in the end, necessary? Absolutely. Reversal of Beeching in itself is therefore immediately impractical because that would involve reinstating thousands of miles of track that serves nobody and sets money on fire. (I'm sure the 20 people in one of those tiny hamlets in Cumbria that had a branch from the Settle & Carlisle line are delighted though.)

That, of course, assumes the infrastructure is still there. Which it isn't. Most of it was built over in the years immediately following the closures, and what wasn't built over is now either nature walks or heritage railways.

Now obviously Mr Shapps is not suggesting the government will reinstate every line closed (as a side note, while Wilson's government did nothing to slow down or reduce the scope of the closures, which is a black mark against it, they were started under the previous Tory government, partially engineered by Transport Sec. Ernest Marples, who had a considerable business interest in motorway construction; such a conflict of interest would hopefully never be allowed today but times being as they are...) but such a vagueness is not appreciated. There's a massive difference between reopening beneficial links and ridiculous branch lines that were only built because setting money on fire was a passtime of Victorian railway companies. Where is the line drawn? What would be economic insanity to rebuild and what would be a worthwhile investment? Does he know? Does he care? I suspect not.

But then we come to the basic problem that the railways that were closed in the 1960s were railways that served the market of the 1960s. The closure of the Great Central Main Line was a huge mistake for instance, but there's no doubt that had it remained open the services provided would have changed with the times - reopening it like for like would do nothing except relieve congestion on a few select journeys out of London (mainly to Rugby, the East Midlands and Sheffield) while doing nothing else for the overall network. It wouldn't even be any good for freight on the West Coast Main Line as that mostly goes to Birmingham and Manchester, which the GC didn't serve. Tolerate it or loathe it, HS2 has the same benefits, except its a high speed route so comes with faster journey times, and actually serves Birmingham and Manchester instead of swerving off in completely the wrong direction. What would be served by spending money on reopening the GC instead of building HS2?

Also, £500m builds you barely anything in this day and age (it cost £85 million to build a couple of bridges and a viaduct in Manchester). Unless Grant here has an idea to drastically reduce the cost of railway construction, which somehow I doubt he does. So what is this? A cynical voter-attracting ploy or is this just Shapps being an idiot? Or both?

There's no doubt the UK rail system needs to plan itself a post-Beeching network (only 50 years too late...) and that will probably require some reopenings. But it needs careful strategic planning, a decision of what new lines will be worthwhile and not just pledging money for a nice shiny policy that everyone can get behind because Beeching is a name that's synonymous with dog sh!t nowadays.  Just a reminder that as idiotic as Corbyn is, 'pledging to throw money at stuff without a real plan or thought to how it'll work' is not unique to Labour.

[DaWN]

For reasons that genuinely escape me, the LibDems seem to have endorsed the same "permanent government surplus" plan that went down like a cup of cold sick when Liz Kendall put it forward in the 2015 Labour contest.

It's far from the best policy they could have come up with, but a policy that doesn't go down well with the internal Labour electorate isn't one that will necessarily go down badly with the types of voter the Lib Dems need to win seats.

[DaWN]

We don't all have to have the constituency poll discussion again, do we?

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

Oh look, an abysmal poll for the Lib Dems. Almost as if letting some of your candidates publicly claim your own irrelevance is a very bad idea. Who could have seen that coming.

Obviously terrible news but I'm beginning to be at peace with it. After all, in a democracy, you get what you vote for, and if Remainers want Mr 7/10 to represent them, then that is more than their prerogative. They just shouldn't expect any sympathy from me when he goes straight back to his old ways the minute after the election.

[DaWN]

I don't agree with the idea the debates will be important (a strategically shaved donkey vs a propped up classroom skeleton doesn't sound like a gamechanger to me but as I'm not a swing voter who's to say...) but overall a lot of people on both sides are very quick to rush to judgements, yes.

I think its clear from the polls that they have no idea what kind of electorate is going to turn out on polling day; I doubt anyone knows. That, and movement due to campaign quality and the inevitable tactical squeeze/Remainer idiocy (delete as appropriate) will be what determines the outcome. A Tory majority is the most likely option but pretending its the only possibility is a great way to look like an idiot when the results come in.

[DaWN]

An important thing to note about Corbyn is that while he's ultra-popular with Labour supporters, he's slightly less popular than most of the major diseases among non-Labour supporters. And Labour need some of the latter to win. Normally I'd say this means that Corbyn's Labour has a high floor but a low ceiling (as far as such a remark would be useful when talking about British politics), but given Boris has a fairly similar weakness, it makes this election even more unpredictable. Which side will benefit the most from 'hold their nose' voters?

[DaWN]

An important thing to note about Corbyn is that while he's ultra-popular with Labour supporters, he's slightly less popular than most of the major diseases among non-Labour supporters. And Labour need some of the latter to win. Normally I'd say this means that Corbyn's Labour has a high floor but a low ceiling (as far as such a remark would be useful when talking about British politics), but given Boris has a fairly similar weakness, it makes this election even more unpredictable. Which side will benefit the most from 'hold their nose' voters?

Corbyn is not that popular with Labour voters, a large chunk aren't keen on him in the slightest (hence why his national approval ratings are so utterly dire). Labour Party members on the other hand (very different group of people) do genuinely seem to see him as a Messiah-esque figure. Though sadly for him their views are totally out of whack with everyone else's, even Labour voters.

I did say supporters not voters, and there is a difference. You are right though.

[DaWN]

tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.

[DaWN]

Wait, there's a debate tonight? You all have my deepest sympathies

Don't worry, I'll be joining most of the country in avoiding watching it or any part of it like the plague. Frankly I'd rather have a root canal than watch Boris and Corbyn debate.

[DaWN]

tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.

So this implies that there will be diddling accusations after her death?

I meant sulking on the backbenches for 25 years lol. I certainly wouldn't accuse the ex-Prime Minister of such things (happy, any lawyers reading?)

[DaWN]

It seems Yougov will do a snap poll after the debate.  Of course it is not clear if anyone will watch this debate.

FTFY

[DaWN]

The UK collectively lost that debate. Just like I expected, nobody won.

Who could have seen that one coming.

[DaWN]

Jo Swinson...being very...you know...Blair (slight exasperation) in how...you know...she talks.

If she doesn't wipe the floor with the two jokers that have been up tonight at the multi-party debate she should just give up with politics.

[DaWN]

It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)

While not completely ruling out that either event will make a difference, I'd say there's a difference between saying "No real people care" (which is obviously false) and "Nobody will remember or care that any of this happened in 3 weeks time" (which is a possibility).

[DaWN]

It's so hilarious in hindsight there was a 'mania' for that snake oil salesman

[DaWN]

Full labour manifesto: https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf

full lib dem manifesto: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/libdems/pages/57307/attachments/original/1574267252/Stop_Brexit_and_Build_a_Brighter_Future.pdf?1574267252

Credit where credit is due to the lib dems, pledging to give all 7 Million Hong kongers full Citizenship rights and right of abode is ambitious and would help correct many historical injustices (but would also spark full blown diplomatic crisis with china)

Well it's a good policy of course, but it's also one they know there's zero chance of being implemented, so they can afford to promise things that obviously aren't actually all that practical.

I'm actually pleasantly surprised with the Lib Dem manifesto. Labour manifesto is uncosted seventies tripe of course but that was hardly unexpected so my reaction is an uninterested 'meh'. The Tory manifesto will be the interesting one to watch; if its really bad again we could be in for an interesting ride.

[DaWN]

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.

Definitely won't matter, but as a general observation the social media videos being put out by Labour / Momentum are very well done.

FTFY

[DaWN]

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.

Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.

That's interesting then - perhaps I might have to change my rating then. I suspect there might be a whiff of close but no cigar to it but maybe the tactical voting potential is there. It's obviously very unpredictable though...

So there's this forecast site:

https://leantossup.ca/uk-constituency-map/

CON GAIN Torfaen anyone?

Apparently these guys nailed the Canadian election... not sure they'll be repeating that here. My personal favourite is apparently Leeds NW more likely to LD than St Albans.

[DaWN]

The British economy is obviously broken and needs transformational change. But that isn't what Corbyn is offering - there's nothing clever or interesting to try and reform a failed system, just "LET'S SPEND OUR WAY OUT!". So at the end of five years, all we are is deep in debt and with the same economic system the Tories will then use for Austerity 2: Electric Boogaloo.

It's probably the most frustrating thing about Corbyn, is that there are frequently opportunities for good things to happen, and he ALWAYS hoofs the ball well clear of the open goal. I'd be interested in voting for transformational change to the economy to create a better, fairer and more reliable system than the current sh**tshow (not this time because of Brexit but maybe in the future.) I have zero interest in voting for failed regressive seventies socialism.

Anyway, from what I've seen the manifesto is going down like a treat with the converted but the jury is very much out on the people who's votes actually matter. I don't think this was a game changer of any kind.