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December 06, 2019, 10:48:58 pm
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 44354 times)
CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #400 on: November 10, 2019, 05:32:23 am »

Yes but its a much narrower Tory lead in the 45-65 age bracket, and one that is subject to change - this group (my age group as it happens) is also much more "swingy" than the boomers.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #401 on: November 10, 2019, 11:07:02 am »

Let's just say that today was the first time I and probably many other people have heard of Dan Carden, so he didn't exactly make a good first impression.

What has been alleged very likely didn't happen.

On the one hand there are reasons to raise eyebrows at the source and other people on the trip have denied the story. On the other, the MPs in question are known lushes. The denials from them are funny: they clearly can't remember a thing about the journey.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #402 on: November 10, 2019, 12:36:56 pm »

YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland

It's also worth noting that the Labour gains in Scotland were completely unheralded in 2017 - eg some of the media seriously tried to portray Glasgow East as a Tory vs. SNP duel. It's not yet clear whether this was simply a more extreme example of having missed the Labour surge, or whether there's a specific issue with Scottish polling.
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Heat
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« Reply #403 on: November 10, 2019, 03:43:57 pm »

YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland

It's also worth noting that the Labour gains in Scotland were completely unheralded in 2017 - eg some of the media seriously tried to portray Glasgow East as a Tory vs. SNP duel. It's not yet clear whether this was simply a more extreme example of having missed the Labour surge, or whether there's a specific issue with Scottish polling.
Scottish polling at the time showed Labour rising to 25% or even above, it's just the narrative was set by the polls right after the election call that showed Labour in the teens so nobody really picked up on it at the time, and all the polling very much overestimated the SNP.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #404 on: November 10, 2019, 04:35:44 pm »

Keith Vaz has just lost the Keith Vaz game.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #405 on: November 10, 2019, 04:42:21 pm »

Scotland post-indyref has seen an unusual level of tactical voting between the Unionists, which produces the massive 20% swings that have become normal if the geographic territory in question was last contested in 2015/16. Now the tactical voting is not absolute, but it's more then what goes on to the south. Since the SNP are pushing IndyRef2 this time much harder, perhaps tactical voting will be even more  strategic. Likely won't benefit the tories, their still losing seats, but maybe the others will do decently.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #406 on: November 10, 2019, 05:42:46 pm »

YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland

It's also worth noting that the Labour gains in Scotland were completely unheralded in 2017 - eg some of the media seriously tried to portray Glasgow East as a Tory vs. SNP duel. It's not yet clear whether this was simply a more extreme example of having missed the Labour surge, or whether there's a specific issue with Scottish polling.
Scottish polling at the time showed Labour rising to 25% or even above, it's just the narrative was set by the polls right after the election call that showed Labour in the teens so nobody really picked up on it at the time, and all the polling very much overestimated the SNP.

Low teens, they actually doubled their score from that on the day.
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jaichind
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« Reply #407 on: November 11, 2019, 07:17:10 am »

Farage Says He Won't Contest 317 CON seats.  Not sure if this is good news for CON as a lot of BXP votes might flow to LAB.
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cp
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« Reply #408 on: November 11, 2019, 07:39:34 am »

Farage Says He Won't Contest 317 CON seats.  Not sure if this is good news for CON as a lot of BXP votes might flow to LAB.

Agreed, but not for the reason you state. The sorts of votes the BXP draws in seats already held by Labour are votes that wouldn't have voted for Labour in the first place. Meanwhile, the sorts of votes the BXP draws in seats already held by Tories are votes that are not crucial to the swing that the Lib Dems/SNP/PC or even Lab would need to take them.

If nothing else this definitively shows what a mendacious empty vessel Farage is and always has been.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #409 on: November 11, 2019, 08:00:27 am »

A rather strange decision.
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sopojarwo
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« Reply #410 on: November 11, 2019, 08:03:04 am »

Might this work in Labour's favour? Spilt the leave vote in seats they need to keep
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #411 on: November 11, 2019, 08:10:28 am »

Might this work in Labour's favour? Spilt the leave vote in seats they need to keep


It might have a beneficial effect to the LibDems in parts of the West Country as well, oddly.
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Umengus
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« Reply #412 on: November 11, 2019, 08:16:09 am »

good move in my opinion:

-if conservatives won in 2017, the should win again in 2019.
-in lab constituencies, the goal is to impeach some leave voters to vote for labour and so conservatives can win the seat due to the weaked labour result.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #413 on: November 11, 2019, 08:26:40 am »

It gives credence to the line that BxP is simply a Tory party reserve squad.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #414 on: November 11, 2019, 08:31:55 am »

BXP support has been on a pretty clear downward trend anyway and it's likely they'd have been below 5% by polling day anyway. This may increase the chance that they become totally irrelevant in all but a handful of seats, as was the case in 2017.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #415 on: November 11, 2019, 08:39:18 am »

BXP support has been on a pretty clear downward trend anyway and it's likely they'd have been below 5% by polling day anyway

They might plausibly have seen the campaign as a chance to change that. But it appears not.

Could this actually cause a few more UKIP candidates to appear in Tory held seats?
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Umengus
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« Reply #416 on: November 11, 2019, 08:41:03 am »

It gives credence to the line that BxP is simply a Tory party reserve squad.

or just a party wich wants a brexit.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #417 on: November 11, 2019, 08:43:22 am »

It gives credence to the line that BxP is simply a Tory party reserve squad.

or just a party wich wants a brexit.

Until literally days ago, its line was that Johnson wasn't really offering that.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #418 on: November 11, 2019, 08:48:54 am »

-in lab constituencies, the goal is to impeach some leave voters to vote for labour and so conservatives can win the seat due to the weaked labour result.

Not how things actually work, though...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #419 on: November 11, 2019, 08:49:39 am »

BXP support has been on a pretty clear downward trend anyway and it's likely they'd have been below 5% by polling day anyway. This may increase the chance that they become totally irrelevant in all but a handful of seats, as was the case in 2017.

Yes, there's the possibility that the main effect of this will just be self-sabotage.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #420 on: November 11, 2019, 08:54:45 am »

Farage is famously not actually particularly good at the hard graft of electioneering, he's very much a front man. On the rare occasions UKIP ran a competent campaign, it wasn't down to him. So his absolute authority over BXP is unlikely to make it as effective as it could be.
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jaichind
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« Reply #421 on: November 11, 2019, 09:03:22 am »

It gives credence to the line that BxP is simply a Tory party reserve squad.

I think this is where this will hurt CON.  It will most likely encourage Remain tactical voting.  Ideally BXP run dummy candidates in Remain areas so Leave voters know who to vote for and run strong candidates on LAB Leave districts to eat into the LAB Leave vote.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #422 on: November 11, 2019, 09:35:33 am »

It also seems some BxP people due to stand in Tory seats had no knowledge of this decision and are not happy about it. A few might well take the UKIP label or stand as some sort of Indy.
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Umengus
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« Reply #423 on: November 11, 2019, 09:42:34 am »

-in lab constituencies, the goal is to impeach some leave voters to vote for labour and so conservatives can win the seat due to the weaked labour result.

Not how things actually work, though...

we will see but it's clear for me that it's a good news for conservatives in the conservative seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #424 on: November 11, 2019, 09:49:30 am »

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.6b9db4dc-d1df-4c9d-b9ab-c9a136a91f1e/uk-general-election-seats-markets

Sporting Index market for seats saw an increase of around 15 seats for CON on the Farage/BXP news.
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