United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Oryxslayer]

Good chart. The tories are standing three more than labour because 4 NI conservatives are running in safe unionist seats and won't get their deposits back, and of course team blue are not standing in the speakers seat.

Sourced from the BBC.

[Oryxslayer]

Its actually the first TV debate (a straight Johnson v Corbyn one) just this Tuesday (on ITV)

Anyway, the SNP have now joined the LibDems and filed a legal suit with ITV over their decision to make the first debate 1v1. The SNP is citing their position as 3rd largest party, the LibDems cited their competitive poll numbers, numbers that are similar to what Clegg had before the surge. Essentially ITV needed to set out SOME parameters for getting into their debate, they could have been high AF and restricted it to the top two, but setting out none and saying top two looks like you're playing favorites.

[Oryxslayer]

Good chart. The tories are standing three more than labour because 3 NI conservatives are running in safe unionist seats and won't get their deposits back.

I can't see the image. Can you upload it to an image host (such as imgur)?

fixed.

[Oryxslayer]

Three London constituency polls were published by Deltapolls and reported on by The Guardian here. Overall, they show a similar picture  to what I talked about a while back on the wealthy, remainy, 'slice' of Western London. There's a third constituency here from the Jewish Barnet region, which confirms that even as the non-slice London keeps moving towards Labour, the Jewish vote remains Corbyn's metaphorical ulcer.

Important quote from guardian, which probably signals that all three would go LD if the Oranges keep polling well enough:

-Most Labour and Lib Dem supporters are prepared to vote tactically if their preferred party is out of the running.

-Labour supporters are willing to switch to the Lib Dems in overwhelming numbers – in all three seats by enough to give the Lib Dems victory.

-Lib Dem supporters tend to prefer Labour, but far less decisively. If they can’t have a Lib Dem MP, quite a few would vote Conservative, in each case by enough to increase the Tory majority.

Images sourced from guardian article in post.

[Oryxslayer]

We don't all have to have the constituency poll discussion again, do we?

We don't. However they are rare enough to post when they show up.

[Oryxslayer]

An important thing to note about Corbyn is that while he's ultra-popular with Labour supporters, he's slightly less popular than most of the major diseases among non-Labour supporters. And Labour need some of the latter to win. Normally I'd say this means that Corbyn's Labour has a high floor but a low ceiling (as far as such a remark would be useful when talking about British politics), but given Boris has a fairly similar weakness, it makes this election even more unpredictable. Which side will benefit the most from 'hold their nose' voters?

Corbyn is not that popular with Labour voters, a large chunk aren't keen on him in the slightest (hence why his national approval ratings are so utterly dire). Labour Party members on the other hand (very different group of people) do genuinely seem to see him as a Messiah-esque figure. Though sadly for him their views are totally out of whack with everyone else's, even Labour voters.

To provide some data to this point, I just went and clicked on one of the most recent polls found here.

Approval of Corbyn: 25% approve, 68% Disapprove

Approval among those who voted Labour in 2017: 55% Approve, 39% Disapprove
Among other groups: 6% approve within 2017 Tory voters, 15% withing 2017 LD voters, and 21% withing other party voters.

In context BoJo is treading water in this poll.
Approval among those that voted Conservative in 2017: 77% Approve - 21% Disapprove
Among other groups: 29% approve within 2017 Labour voters, 48% withing 2017 LD voters, and 39% withing other party voters.


A leader of a political party should normally be getting the kind of support BoJo, or for that matter Trump, gets within your own base. Your base should be able to hold firm even if the opposition hates you. When your base holds firm a politician can survive with piss-poor approvals. If your base has cracked then there are serious problems going on.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1196776597296230402

I guess the Lib-Dems and SNP had a reason to be pissy about the first debate being 1v1...but they are going to BBC's in three days!

Also this just seems like way too many debates for any particular one to have a chance at standing out.

[Oryxslayer]

Remember to treat any post-debate snap-polls with extreme caution. They are worse than regular polls, and regular UK polling is as we have all said here, iffy. Now, I don't think anyone can "win" this debate, but this just needs to be stated for cautions sake.

[Oryxslayer]

The UK collectively lost that debate. Just like I expected, nobody won.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1196898105440034816

Remember those snap polls I warned  you about? The only thing they confirm is this debate sucked.

[Oryxslayer]

If the debate was actually aimed at providing a forum for a productive discussion then I suspect we would have seen something like the Clinton-Trump debates where both candidates are speaking to two different countries. There is a reason why BoJo kept punching at corbyn on Brexit after all. But the debates were entirely unproductive and like I said earlier, the country lost tonight.

[Oryxslayer]

I think it's just a surprisingly slow news day, all of the discussion boards I follow on the election have been concerned with different minor things.

[Oryxslayer]

Credit where credit is due to the lib dems, pledging to give all 7 Million Hong kongers full Citizenship rights and right of abode is ambitious and would help correct many historical injustices (but would also spark full blown diplomatic crisis with china)

I mean obvious unicorns are obvious. LDs are never going to be in command of government so they can afford to make outlandish proposals like this. It's the kind of proposal that isn't that thought out, but since everyone agrees that something needs to be done about the timely crisis in Hong Kong, it doesn't hurt to throw unicorns out there and use them to win votes.

[Oryxslayer]

Great Grimsby

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

(lot of undecideds mostly Lab 2017 voters ans a small sample size, but not great news for Labour)

Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.

On the  other hand, we don't know if BXT voters would flow to the Tories here if BXT didn't exist. BXT is just the easier pill to swallow, but if forced to choose more may go for the next blue in line.

Also, obvious warnings about the accuracy of constituency polls are obvious.  

[Oryxslayer]

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.

[Oryxslayer]

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.

Portsmouth South, Cambridge, Reading West (ok, the students are mostly in Reading East but still...) are all good examples of urban constituencies with big student/youth votes, and yet all have labour collapsing by 20 odd points.

And the UK isn’t Canada. There just isn’t enough of an ethnic minority population (esp given the BJP’s naked targetting of Hindu voters) or enough people in the successful liberal cities (considering quite a few big cities like Birmingham and Sheffield voted for Brexit after all) for the maths to really work out.

Students =/= Youth vote. It was brought up during the debate over the election date that about 75% of students are registered in their home constituency. Universities get their hues more from the staff, long-term researchers, and the surrounding university-serving communities that reflect their clientele's political views. Look more for the constituencies the youth move to after graduation. 

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1197570175878475776

Reminder: Not all tactical voters are LD-Tory or LD-Lab voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.

Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.

Must be hard standing in front of a crowd trying to argue that you're more than a sacrificial lamb candidate, even though everyone and yourself knows that's a lie.

Interesting that the LDs can follow up on their word to seriously contest the seat though. One has to assume that their prospects are looking up in those Tory seats to the North if they can get a vibrant crowd in the more reachy Raab seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Since the Tories haven't released their manifesto, we can play a little game: approximately how much if it will be dedicated to Brexit? 1/5th? 1/3rd?

Note that Labour buried their Brexit policy near the end of their manifesto, a reflection of their campaign strategy to bridge the Remain/Leave divide.

[Oryxslayer]

Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.

Must be hard standing in front of a crowd trying to argue that you're more than a sacrificial lamb candidate, even though everyone and yourself knows that's a lie.

Interesting that the LDs can follow up on their word to seriously contest the seat though. One has to assume that their prospects are looking up in those Tory seats to the North if they can get a vibrant crowd in the more reachy Raab seat.

If by 'north' you mean Kensington, Wimbledon, and so on, then yes I'd agree. The Lib Dems aren't serious contenders in most of 'The North', i.e. Yorkshire, Lancashire, etc. They *are* making a big play in the Southwest (Cornwall and Devon) but I haven't heard anything about the campaigns in that part of the country.

On the way to work this morning the Tories were handing out pamphlets to commuters at the train station. A bit late to the game, tbh; the Lib Dems have been doing that for two weeks, albeit intermittently.

Yes, I meant those seats directly to the North in the wealthy slice of London, not Yorkshire, NE, etc. I'm not that daft to think the LDs will make seriously gains north of Birmingham, unless polling turns around in a big way. Those seats were all 'in front' of Raab target-wise, so LD prospects must be good across the wealthy slice of West London.

[Oryxslayer]

The financial times should be scared from their position on the political spectrum. Their UK readership is not accommodating to corbyn, so it would be a shocker that they had good things to say at all. For example, the only times in recent memory the FT endorsed Labour was during the third-way landslide years:





Now I have suspected since before the election that the FT will be endorsing the LDs, their readership and press corps are very pro-remain, but that is not a topic for the here and now.

Images sourced from The Guardian and YouGov.

[Oryxslayer]

Corbyn just confirmed that he would, in no uncertain terms, stand as a politically neutral party in Labour's hypothetical 'labour deal versus remain' referendum. The rest of his position was the normal half-and-half between Remain and Leave.

Also gives a half-and-half on IndyRef2. Says Labour will oppose the IndyRef for the first 2-3 years of their govt, uncertain beyond that. While neutrality might be better on Brexit, this seems like an approach designed to piss of all of Unionists/Seperatists/Scottish labour.

[Oryxslayer]

I've mentioned elsewhere that the decision to do public questions in urban Sheffield led to a very pro-labour crowd. Nobody except Labour is going to win these votes, except maybe in sheff-Hallam which is a different electorate than the city. Everyone who wasn't Jeremy Corbyn got raked over the coals, it just was less obvious with Sturgeon since they made an effort to get Scots in the crowd. In contrast, Corbyn got soapboxes from the crowd in his favor. If you have already made up your mind, then you are going to see this panel as a biased affair and rally around your candidate of choice.

[Oryxslayer]

And of course, filling an audience with those people definitely means the BBC is biased against Corbyn.

Which it isn't. If the BBC has any bias, it's biased in favor of a competitive race. But that won't stop partisans from rallying around the flag and digging in deeper, because that is always easier if you have made up your mind - it's harder to change.

[Oryxslayer]

While I think this piece from the Mail is nothing but A+ level spin, I would push back on the idea that constituency polls are useless. A constituency poll is like throwing a dart at a dart board with limited accuracy in regards to results. You should never expect bulls eyes, but no darts will end up incredibly far from that center. They in essence are data points, which work best with other data points and not standing on their own, just like every other poll ever.

[Oryxslayer]

Next of the weekend polls:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1198318892877336576

There are also three London constituency polls similar to what we saw last week, so I'm going to wait for the Guardian to make their post before talking about them.