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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 78785 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #625 on: November 17, 2019, 10:04:15 pm »

It seems like his personal opinion of how things will ultimately turn out, not him saying what the polls show right now (as I said right now a Tory majority is almost inevitable but on December 12 a Tory majority is far from inevitable)

Yes: it is important to note that the official campaign period did not start until the 6th of November and that very little has happened since then - the tone has been subdued and the main news has been the business with the Brexit Party withdrawing half its candidates.
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« Reply #626 on: November 17, 2019, 10:15:43 pm »

Some thoughts from Matt Singh on how swings are occurring nationally vs in the marginal seats.

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1196041829533323264
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #627 on: November 18, 2019, 02:19:15 am »

Neil OíBrien the Tory MP for Harborough in Leicestershire in the East Midlands expresses the feeling about how much better this campaign feels than the 2017 campaign. It is just an anecdotal view of differences between the campaigns of 2017 and 2019 from a Tory perspective.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/11/neil-obrien-there-are-still-weeks-to-go-but-for-backbenchers-like-me-campaign-2019-feels-much-much-better-than-2017.html



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Justice Blair
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« Reply #628 on: November 18, 2019, 02:50:15 am »

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

Probably some social democrat who isn't too centrist but also doesn't shake the table too much.

ha.
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« Reply #629 on: November 18, 2019, 06:01:25 am »

Neil OíBrien the Tory MP for Harborough in Leicestershire in the East Midlands expresses the feeling about how much better this campaign feels than the 2017 campaign. It is just an anecdotal view of differences between the campaigns of 2017 and 2019 from a Tory perspective.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/11/neil-obrien-there-are-still-weeks-to-go-but-for-backbenchers-like-me-campaign-2019-feels-much-much-better-than-2017.html




I mean, he would say that though? Hardly a groundbreaking revelations that an incumbent seeking reelection wants to impress that his party is doing well relative to their botched previous campaign.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #630 on: November 18, 2019, 06:06:24 am »

With just a week to go in 2017, Tories were still briefing journalists about how they were going to win all sorts of weird and wonderful Labour "heartland" seats - and some Labour people agreed with them.

Its easy to forget, with the benefit of hindsight, how utterly unexpected that exit poll was.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #631 on: November 18, 2019, 06:19:39 am »

With just a week to go in 2017, Tories were still briefing journalists about how they were going to win all sorts of weird and wonderful Labour "heartland" seats - and some Labour people agreed with them.

Its easy to forget, with the benefit of hindsight, how utterly unexpected that exit poll was.

Yeah, one of the reasons I'm not going with my gut instinct is that I completely brought into the narrative last time, pessimistically viewed the a Labour campaign boat as irrelevant noise or herding and ended up looking a total Chicken Little on election day.
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DaWN
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« Reply #632 on: November 18, 2019, 07:27:02 am »



Oh look, an abysmal poll for the Lib Dems. Almost as if letting some of your candidates publicly claim your own irrelevance is a very bad idea. Who could have seen that coming.

Obviously terrible news but I'm beginning to be at peace with it. After all, in a democracy, you get what you vote for, and if Remainers want Mr 7/10 to represent them, then that is more than their prerogative. They just shouldn't expect any sympathy from me when he goes straight back to his old ways the minute after the election.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #633 on: November 18, 2019, 07:52:23 am »

Neil OíBrien the Tory MP for Harborough in Leicestershire in the East Midlands expresses the feeling about how much better this campaign feels than the 2017 campaign. It is just an anecdotal view of differences between the campaigns of 2017 and 2019 from a Tory perspective.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/11/neil-obrien-there-are-still-weeks-to-go-but-for-backbenchers-like-me-campaign-2019-feels-much-much-better-than-2017.html




I mean, he would say that though? Hardly a groundbreaking revelations that an incumbent seeking reelection wants to impress that his party is doing well relative to their botched previous campaign.

Would he necessarily say this.  I do not think so.

2017 and 2019 are not duplicates.

I remember there was a god deal of anger that May had called an election. She actually had a small but seemingly working majority.  It seemed she called the election only to get a larger majority to ride out the next Four years. That started the election getting out of Mayís control

She realized she could not just run on Brexit, when the required leave date was 2 years away.

She attempted to change the details of how the elderly could use the equity in there home to finance their care after retirement.  The change was actually beneficial for most middle and lower income people.  However she could never explain it.

Then she refused to debate Corbyn.

She began to look like a deer in the headlights of a car.  No politician ever wants to develop that appearance.

This year it became quite clear that an election was necessary to resolve all the Brexit question. I do not think the opposition parties distinguished themselves by proving this Parliament could not resolve the Brexit question.  Boris did distinguish himself by a new
Brexit deal.

Then we have the collapse  of Corbynís reputation.  We have Labourís anti Semitic problems.
We have Corbyn refuse to set out a coherent Brexit policy.  It is assumed that he cannot obtain a majority government.  It seems he will have to allow another Independence referendum to get SNP support.  He will have to allow another Brexit referendum to get Liberal Democrat support.

Finally, we have Corbynís Marxist reputation.  It terrifies the business community and Remainder Tories.  Swinson has already promised not to make him PM.  

IT IS CLEAR THIS YEAR THAT CORBYN IS THE DEER IN THE HEADLIGHTS.
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Cassius
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« Reply #634 on: November 18, 2019, 09:19:55 am »
« Edited: November 18, 2019, 09:24:59 am by Cassius »

I would be extremely wary of writing off Corbyn as the dead weight that will drag Labour down to ignominious defeat, especially before the debates. He did well in his own right during the last campaign, in which most commentators automatically assumed that Labour were headed for their worst defeat since 1983/1931, mostly because of him, which obviously didnít happen. Since then he has continued evolving into a fairly capable public speaker and debater, in contrast to the leadership elections where he won solely because he was the most left wing candidate in the race and Labour supporters didnít like being flagellated by their failed leadership cadre.

I think the debates will be important in this campaign. They werenít in 2017 (aside from the very fact of Mayís absence illustrating her shortcomings as a campaigner), or in 2015 (because they were dull and safe bar Farageís bust ups with the other party leaders and the audience), but were somewhat in 2010 (due to the novelty value and the fact they gave the Prince of Platitudes, Nick Clegg, a massive publicity boost). This time however youíve got Johnson vs Corbyn, the Rumble in the Jungle, but with two semi-competent British politicians as opposed to Ali and Foreman. That head to head tomorrow and a constellation of other debates of various formats dibbly dobbling up until Election Day. These will get a lot of replay I expect (both online and on the TV).

This will be crucial, as weíre seeing Johnson, a generally weak public speaker and debater, being pitched against Corbyn, who is fairly steady, albeit not particularly entertaining, speaker, then subsequently being pitched into the bear pit of the multi-party debates. Although he may surprise me (as he has done in the past), I expect Johnson to perform very badly in these debates, as I think he will contrast poorly with Corbyn in the head to head, and will be pummelled to bits in the multi-party debate as every other leader will gang up on him. On the other hand, the debates probably offer Corbyn his best chance to put forward Labourís policy agenda and to directly contrast it with Johnsonís lack of one (I also think Johnsonís attacks on the Labour agenda will probably fall flat), which could define the rest of the campaign and lead to a shift to Labour.

Or nothing could happen and the polls could remain stock still as everybodyís made up their minds that they hate the other lot. But I think the debates probably are Labourís best chance to change the dynamic of the campaign.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #635 on: November 18, 2019, 09:54:24 am »

Good news for Jeremy, retaking second place from Swinson.

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DaWN
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« Reply #636 on: November 18, 2019, 09:54:46 am »

I don't agree with the idea the debates will be important (a strategically shaved donkey vs a propped up classroom skeleton doesn't sound like a gamechanger to me but as I'm not a swing voter who's to say...) but overall a lot of people on both sides are very quick to rush to judgements, yes.

I think its clear from the polls that they have no idea what kind of electorate is going to turn out on polling day; I doubt anyone knows. That, and movement due to campaign quality and the inevitable tactical squeeze/Remainer idiocy (delete as appropriate) will be what determines the outcome. A Tory majority is the most likely option but pretending its the only possibility is a great way to look like an idiot when the results come in.
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afleitch
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« Reply #637 on: November 18, 2019, 11:05:53 am »

No one cares.

It's Christmas. No one gives a sh!t. There's more important things to focus on. You have voters who decided who they were going to vote for since before the GE and the rest won't give it thought until after the presents are bought and they've had the works night out and they have nothing else to worry about.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #638 on: November 18, 2019, 11:57:28 am »

While we are at the discussion as to the differences/similarities between 2017 and 2019, I remember watching a documentary on the Labour Party of the 2017 vote, the same one that had Stephen Kinnock look shocked as Corbyn clawed his way back and had to receive counselling from the ex-Danish PM (who is incidently also his wife); What struck me the most though was how he and many other Labour MPs effectvely ran a campaign against both the Tories and Corbyn on the doorstep, saying that they knew they would lose but they need a strong voice against Momentum Labour from the electorate. I wager that that kind of rhetoric is no longer in play?
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cp
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« Reply #639 on: November 18, 2019, 12:05:27 pm »

While we are at the discussion as to the differences/similarities between 2017 and 2019, I remember watching a documentary on the Labour Party of the 2017 vote, the same one that had Stephen Kinnock look shocked as Corbyn clawed his way back and had to receive counselling from the ex-Danish PM (who is incidently also his wife); What struck me the most though was how he and many other Labour MPs effectvely ran a campaign against both the Tories and Corbyn on the doorstep, saying that they knew they would lose but they need a strong voice against Momentum Labour from the electorate. I wager that that kind of rhetoric is no longer in play?

Hard to say. Corbyn's popular with a pretty big chunk of Labour supporters, if not a majority. I suspect most Labour MPs with a decent shot at (re)election have figured out how to read the proverbial room with each conversation.
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cp
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« Reply #640 on: November 18, 2019, 12:09:34 pm »

Also, just so we're all aware: the only story anyone's paid attention to for the past 48 hours is Prince Andrew's bone chilling interview with ITV about his (apparent total lack of) remorse for associating with Jeffrey Epstein.
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DaWN
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« Reply #641 on: November 18, 2019, 12:13:03 pm »

An important thing to note about Corbyn is that while he's ultra-popular with Labour supporters, he's slightly less popular than most of the major diseases among non-Labour supporters. And Labour need some of the latter to win. Normally I'd say this means that Corbyn's Labour has a high floor but a low ceiling (as far as such a remark would be useful when talking about British politics), but given Boris has a fairly similar weakness, it makes this election even more unpredictable. Which side will benefit the most from 'hold their nose' voters?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #642 on: November 18, 2019, 12:52:53 pm »

No one cares.

It's Christmas. No one gives a sh!t. There's more important things to focus on. You have voters who decided who they were going to vote for since before the GE and the rest won't give it thought until after the presents are bought and they've had the works night out and they have nothing else to worry about.

I made one of my long trips up to the University to have a chat about the White Whale today. Hardly a poster to be seen, not even in farmers fields. A few, but not many. Strikingly few. People just haven't been gripped by the election yet (very little has happened in the campaign so that's rational enough) and are, for the moment, focused on other things.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #643 on: November 18, 2019, 03:21:23 pm »

I saw two interesting articles.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/16/the-latest-ipsos-mori-government-satisfaction-ratings-are-worse-for-the-incumbent-than-major-faced-just-before-blairs-ge1997-landslide/

Ignore the 2017 in the axis.

I don't think Labour would be winning a 1997-style landslide if it had a good leader, Brexit will polarize the electorate more regardless. However Labour should be winning this election, either as the largest party or a majority. It would be a hugely damning indictment of Corbyn's leadership if Boris actually wins a majority, though if the Tories are the largest party it would be a bit of a bad result for Labour (though in most such scenarios Labour would form a government, then it'd be that they underperformed without doing so badly as to actually lose the election).

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/16/for-how-long-can-johnson-continue-to-defy-gravity/

Quote
The problem that the Conservatives have is that while Johnson is himself popular, the government is not. The PMís unusually strong +2 rating has to be set against the net satisfaction score of the government he leads of a fairly awful -55. This is a disparity that cannot endure. Political gravity may be temporarily suspended but it will, sooner or later, come into play: either Johnson will scramble back to the cliff-edge by pulling the governmentís rating up towards his own, or else he will plummet chasmwards as opinion turns against him. My firm expectation is the latter because the fundamentals driving that unpopularity are much stronger; the big uncertainty is when it happens.

The article also cited Johnson's weak performances on the campaign trail and vulnerabilities that could drive down his personal popularity too.

Clearly this election is extremely winnable for Labour. So far they are blowing it on a historic level (with extremely high stakes), but it isn't yet over for them and Labour can still come back, and it's hard to see them doing as badly as the polls show (or more accurately, it's hard to see the Tories doing as well, at least in terms of seats). Labour's actual election campaign seems ok so far, too early to tell but there is potential there. I think Corbyn got a big opportunity with a debate against only Johnson, and Labour's message seems like a good one (the 'real change' slogan could seize on the dissatisfaction with the government). Currently without major changes the Tories probably end up with a 2015-style majority, but it could easily be that they suffer a net loss of seats and cannot form a government.
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« Reply #644 on: November 18, 2019, 04:58:18 pm »

I'm amazed at how Boris get's away with everything; financial scandal, sex scandal. His past. All of it. Tory candidates getting away with casual anti-Muslim statements.

The press will get bored with Corbyn. Eventually.
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« Reply #645 on: November 18, 2019, 05:06:51 pm »

So, I'm no expert and obviousy there are multiple volatility factors this election that makes it unpredictable, but that said...

I'd be a bit surprised if the Tories don't win.

1. Yes, Brexit isn't the only thing but it does seem to be a huge dominant issue. And while the Leave vote seems ready to coalesce around Johnson the Remain vote will be split between different parties to a much higher degree.

2. One reason for this is that Corbyn is so extremely toxic. Even though the alternative is Boris f**ing Johnson he's waaaay behind in popularity. And fundamentally those reasons are legitimate. I mean, when Al decides to leave the Labour Party that says something about the poor state they're in. Tongue

3. I imagine that for less political swingy voters who are a bit tuned out the promise to resolve Brexit with what can be sold as "not that dangerous" I'd imagine to be fairly powerful. My impression from many of my own British friends is that getting it settled and done as an issue in a way that doesn't feel scary is a fairly common sentiment at this stage.

There is obviously a lot more going on but I imagine those things will ultimately be enough to deliver a Tory majority.
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« Reply #646 on: November 18, 2019, 07:54:13 pm »

An important thing to note about Corbyn is that while he's ultra-popular with Labour supporters, he's slightly less popular than most of the major diseases among non-Labour supporters. And Labour need some of the latter to win. Normally I'd say this means that Corbyn's Labour has a high floor but a low ceiling (as far as such a remark would be useful when talking about British politics), but given Boris has a fairly similar weakness, it makes this election even more unpredictable. Which side will benefit the most from 'hold their nose' voters?

Corbyn is not that popular with Labour voters, a large chunk aren't keen on him in the slightest (hence why his national approval ratings are so utterly dire). Labour Party members on the other hand (very different group of people) do genuinely seem to see him as a Messiah-esque figure. Though sadly for him their views are totally out of whack with everyone else's, even Labour voters.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #647 on: November 18, 2019, 08:42:59 pm »

An important thing to note about Corbyn is that while he's ultra-popular with Labour supporters, he's slightly less popular than most of the major diseases among non-Labour supporters. And Labour need some of the latter to win. Normally I'd say this means that Corbyn's Labour has a high floor but a low ceiling (as far as such a remark would be useful when talking about British politics), but given Boris has a fairly similar weakness, it makes this election even more unpredictable. Which side will benefit the most from 'hold their nose' voters?

Corbyn is not that popular with Labour voters, a large chunk aren't keen on him in the slightest (hence why his national approval ratings are so utterly dire). Labour Party members on the other hand (very different group of people) do genuinely seem to see him as a Messiah-esque figure. Though sadly for him their views are totally out of whack with everyone else's, even Labour voters.

To provide some data to this point, I just went and clicked on one of the most recent polls found here.

Approval of Corbyn: 25% approve, 68% Disapprove

Approval among those who voted Labour in 2017: 55% Approve, 39% Disapprove
Among other groups: 6% approve within 2017 Tory voters, 15% withing 2017 LD voters, and 21% withing other party voters.

In context BoJo is treading water in this poll.
Approval among those that voted Conservative in 2017: 77% Approve - 21% Disapprove
Among other groups: 29% approve within 2017 Labour voters, 48% withing 2017 LD voters, and 39% withing other party voters.


A leader of a political party should normally be getting the kind of support BoJo, or for that matter Trump, gets within your own base. Your base should be able to hold firm even if the opposition hates you. When your base holds firm a politician can survive with piss-poor approvals. If your base has cracked then there are serious problems going on.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #648 on: November 18, 2019, 10:10:43 pm »
« Edited: November 18, 2019, 10:34:15 pm by Arkansas Yankee »

The Observer is conducting riding surveys that are to be reported in the Guardian.  The first reported surveys cover the previously Tory seats in London that have become marginal due to Brexit.  They are Finchley and Golders Green (what a name!), Kensington, and Wimbledon.

Finchley
      Conservative 46% change from 2017 -1%
      Lib Dem 32% change +25%
      Labour 19% change -25
       Other 3
             Hypothetical races with only one opposition party viewed with chance of election
                     Conservative 53%
                     Labour 37%
                     Lib. Dem 7%
               OR
                     Conservative 44%
                     Lib. Dem  50%
                     Labour 5%

Kensington
           Conservative 36%   Change -6
            Lib. Dem 33%.  +25
            Labour 27% -16
            Other 4

                  Hypos
                      Conservative 51%
                      Labour 41%
                      Lib Dem 5%
             OR
                      Conservative 38%
                      Lib. Dem  56%
                      Labour 5%

Wimbledon
          Conservative 38%.   Change -6
           Lib. Dem 36%.   +21
           Labour 23%      -13
           Other 3
                 Hypos
                  Conservative 48%
                   Labour. 41%
                   Lib. Dem 10%
     OR
                   Consevative 38%
                    Lib. Dem.   56%
                    Labour       6%

To each their own view of the dilemmas created.

See https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/16/election-2019-london-polls-show-lib-dem-surge

      
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DaWN
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« Reply #649 on: November 19, 2019, 04:06:43 am »

An important thing to note about Corbyn is that while he's ultra-popular with Labour supporters, he's slightly less popular than most of the major diseases among non-Labour supporters. And Labour need some of the latter to win. Normally I'd say this means that Corbyn's Labour has a high floor but a low ceiling (as far as such a remark would be useful when talking about British politics), but given Boris has a fairly similar weakness, it makes this election even more unpredictable. Which side will benefit the most from 'hold their nose' voters?

Corbyn is not that popular with Labour voters, a large chunk aren't keen on him in the slightest (hence why his national approval ratings are so utterly dire). Labour Party members on the other hand (very different group of people) do genuinely seem to see him as a Messiah-esque figure. Though sadly for him their views are totally out of whack with everyone else's, even Labour voters.

I did say supporters not voters, and there is a difference. You are right though.
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