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  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Let the hero born of woman crush the IDP with his heel)
  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 76447 times)
EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #25 on: October 29, 2019, 12:45:03 pm »

There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.

Will this help Labour or Tories?

To the extent it helps either, presumably the Tories, because the ultra-Remainer typically Tory voters who voted Labour as a backlash against Victoria Borwick in 2017 will mostly vote for him, and Labour can't win Kensington without them. In extremis, maybe he could win the seat through the middle. I don't know enough about the Tory candidate to say; if she's a strong Leaver, Gyimah has a chance. She has apparently stumbled around totally unwinnable seats for the last couple of elections (South Down in 2015 and South Shields in 2017), so she may just be loyal footsoldier type.

This isn't really true. Remainer Tories in Kensington were never going to vote Labour, because nobody in their family has done that since 1832. We are talking about a very posh, very wealthy and implacably anti-Labour demographic.

The reason they lost in 2017 was that a) some of those Remainer Tories voted Lib Dem (as was the case in a fair swathe of well-off west London); b) more of those Remainer Tories didn't vote; c) there are fewer of those Remainer Tories than there used to be, because they're being outcompeted in the property market by oligarchs and have to move to Chiswick instead and d) turnout in the Labour-voting estates went up, as has been the pattern for a little while now.

The following article takes a pretty solid go at putting forward the case for Gyimah, but it's notable that it only really addresses the posher half of the seat. Unless we start seeing active evidence that he's making inroads in the more down-at-heel bits of North Kensington, I struggle to see his path to victory.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/10/sam-gyimah-standing-kensington-can-he-win
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #26 on: October 29, 2019, 12:59:02 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 01:15:11 pm by Tintrlvr »

There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.

Will this help Labour or Tories?

To the extent it helps either, presumably the Tories, because the ultra-Remainer typically Tory voters who voted Labour as a backlash against Victoria Borwick in 2017 will mostly vote for him, and Labour can't win Kensington without them. In extremis, maybe he could win the seat through the middle. I don't know enough about the Tory candidate to say; if she's a strong Leaver, Gyimah has a chance. She has apparently stumbled around totally unwinnable seats for the last couple of elections (South Down in 2015 and South Shields in 2017), so she may just be loyal footsoldier type.

This isn't really true. Remainer Tories in Kensington were never going to vote Labour, because nobody in their family has done that since 1832. We are talking about a very posh, very wealthy and implacably anti-Labour demographic.

The reason they lost in 2017 was that a) some of those Remainer Tories voted Lib Dem (as was the case in a fair swathe of well-off west London); b) more of those Remainer Tories didn't vote; c) there are fewer of those Remainer Tories than there used to be, because they're being outcompeted in the property market by oligarchs and have to move to Chiswick instead and d) turnout in the Labour-voting estates went up, as has been the pattern for a little while now.

The following article takes a pretty solid go at putting forward the case for Gyimah, but it's notable that it only really addresses the posher half of the seat. Unless we start seeing active evidence that he's making inroads in the more down-at-heel bits of North Kensington, I struggle to see his path to victory.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/10/sam-gyimah-standing-kensington-can-he-win

It's kind of crazy to deny that a bunch of (obviously not all) Remainer Tories voted Labour in Kensington in 2017. The factors you cite happened, too, but turnout was up overall, and swings like that against the national grain don't just happen because of organization. Tory Remainers voting Labour was the only reason it was competitive in the first place: Borwick, as an ardent Leave campaigner, was a dreadful fit for the constituency, and many Tory Remainers who had only ever voted Tory before abandoned her - some, yes, for the Lib Dems, but a larger share for Labour. Obviously many Tory Remainers stuck with the Tories anyway in 2017 (if they hadn't, Borwick would have gotten around 20% of the vote instead of over 40% of the vote), but Tory Remainers who voted for Borwick are probably mostly going to vote for another Tory this time around, too, especially one who is less strongly associated with the Leave campaign than Borwick was (although apparently the new candidate writes for "BrexitCentral.com", so maybe she's not much of a shift from Borwick ideologically).
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: October 29, 2019, 01:02:19 pm »

Befair markets for vote share seems to imply CON at around 37%, LAB around 25% and LDEM around 20%
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #28 on: October 29, 2019, 01:06:14 pm »



All October polls conducted before the vote tonight.



Scotland.
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Krago
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« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2019, 01:23:33 pm »

I was looking up UK election odds on betting sites and found 'Nigel Farage Specials'.

Worst. Ska band. Ever.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2019, 01:31:53 pm »

Conservative Party restores whip to ten of the rebel MPs who were kicked out earlier.
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jaichind
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« Reply #31 on: October 29, 2019, 01:42:19 pm »

Conservative Party restores whip to ten of the rebel MPs who were kicked out earlier.

Ken Clarke is not one of them.  Good.  One good thing about this election is he is now out for good one way or another.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
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« Reply #32 on: October 29, 2019, 01:51:09 pm »

Ugh. We can but hope that Al, and presumably the Lib Dems, are right and the Tory polling lead won't be enough to overcome their anemic overall vote share.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #33 on: October 29, 2019, 02:11:30 pm »

As I'm tired of the Brexit drama, I hope BoJo wins a mandate to get it done finally, even though I would vote for the Liberal Democrats. And hopefully Labor loses big, so that Corbyn is finally gone and they could (at least in theory) return to Blairism.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
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« Reply #34 on: October 29, 2019, 02:15:25 pm »

And hopefully Labor loses big, so that Corbyn is finally gone and they could (at least in theory) return to Blairism.

Dichotomies To Watch Out For
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #35 on: October 29, 2019, 02:49:51 pm »

As I'm tired of the Brexit drama, I hope BoJo wins a mandate to get it done finally, even though I would vote for the Liberal Democrats. And hopefully Labor loses big, so that Corbyn is finally gone and they could (at least in theory) return to Blairism.

Blairism is dead, was dead before Corbyn and it does not hold a monopoly on the Labour Right. Indeed, you could argye that the struggle for the Right to find its identity after Blair is a big reason for its internal failure today.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #36 on: October 29, 2019, 03:01:46 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 03:05:18 pm by Oryxslayer »

Amendment vote:

Ayes: 295
Nos: 315

GE will be on December 12.

Scottish harmonization of registration dates (recognizing the banking holiday) is unanimous.
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DaWN
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« Reply #37 on: October 29, 2019, 03:02:00 pm »

As I'm tired of the Brexit drama, I hope BoJo wins a mandate to get it done finally, even though I would vote for the Liberal Democrats. And hopefully Labor loses big, so that Corbyn is finally gone and they could (at least in theory) return to Blairism.

Blairism is dead, was dead before Corbyn and it does not hold a monopoly on the Labour Right. Indeed, you could argye that the struggle for the Right to find its identity after Blair is a big reason for its internal failure today.

This.

Also, some people seriously need to get it out of their heads that the far-left genie is going back in the bottle when Corbyn goes. His replacement will just as, if not more, left-wing than he is. The inability of those on the centre and centre-left to just let go of Labour has been/is one of the most frustrating things to watch over the past few years.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2019, 03:14:40 pm »

Really hope Labour pulls through here, while Corbyn isn't great the LibDems and the Tories are both worse imo, and the LibDems still can't win in most constituencies so voting for them just helps get Boris back in. There is a lot of volatility so hope is not lost. However I am pessimistic about this and think Boris probably gets a majority.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2019, 03:21:05 pm »

Apparently Parliament will be dissolving on the 5th November.

And the election results will be reported the  morning of Friday 13th December.

God has certainly lost the plot for reality.
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afleitch
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« Reply #40 on: October 29, 2019, 03:22:42 pm »

I'll be in Florida :/
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Lumine
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« Reply #41 on: October 29, 2019, 03:25:01 pm »

438 to 20, the bill for the General Election passes. All that's left is the Lords.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #42 on: October 29, 2019, 03:30:07 pm »

Whilst he had this reputation as this great, charismatic campaigner when he was Mayor of London, I think the crucial thing in his favour was that there was, relatively speaking, a lot of goodwill for him (which has since evaporated), and he was running for a Mickey Mouse position with comparatively little power.

He was also running against Ken Livingstone, who had reached his electoral sell-by date in 2008 and was even less inherently appealing when he ran again four years later.
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afleitch
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« Reply #43 on: October 29, 2019, 03:36:12 pm »

I will probably be doing some on the ground activity for the first time in 8 years, even though I won't be here for the last week.
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Gary J
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« Reply #44 on: October 29, 2019, 03:37:26 pm »

Apparently Parliament will be dissolving on the 5th November.

And the election results will be reported the  morning of Friday 13th December.

God has certainly lost the plot for reality.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the House of Commons, just announced in the House that the dissolution will take place at 1 minute after midnight on 6th November.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #45 on: October 29, 2019, 03:41:12 pm »

Something important to be aware of: once the campaign period begins, strict rules about broadcast media coverage for political parties are imposed. Note that most people get their news from the broadcast media and pay much more attention to the political items during an election campaign than the rest of the time. So this matters a lot.

Anyway, broadcast media coverage over the past few months has recently focused very, very heavily on the government and on the Conservative Party. Once the campaign rules kick in, just about everyone (Labour, the LibDems, the Brexit Party...) will get more airtime. This will have an effect. Exactly how much always varies, but it matters.

Or to put things more bluntly: it will not be possible for the government to run a 'people vs. parliament' (absurd concept, whatever) campaign, because the broadcast regulations will not allow for the coverage shares that might allow it.
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Ishan
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« Reply #46 on: October 29, 2019, 03:44:10 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 03:49:08 pm by Ishan »

As I'm tired of the Brexit drama, I hope BoJo wins a mandate to get it done finally, even though I would vote for the Liberal Democrats. And hopefully Labor loses big, so that Corbyn is finally gone and they could (at least in theory) return to Blairism.


Blairism isn't in the Labour party anymore, the Lib Dems has inherited Blairism.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #47 on: October 29, 2019, 03:45:55 pm »

Right, can we all agree to behave as adults in this thread? It isn't a game for the entertainment of baboons: some of us have to live here.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #48 on: October 29, 2019, 03:51:40 pm »

Hopefully, Tories get a majority
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xelas81
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« Reply #49 on: October 29, 2019, 04:25:07 pm »

Right, can we all agree to behave as adults in this thread? It isn't a game for the entertainment of baboons: some of us have to live here.

Solution
Have a separate thread for the yanks and ban all Americans from the real thread.
Yes, I am including myself when I say all Americans. Smiley
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