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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 70110 times)
Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #50 on: October 29, 2019, 04:31:37 pm »

Right, can we all agree to behave as adults in this thread? It isn't a game for the entertainment of baboons: some of us have to live here.

Solution
Have a separate thread for the yanks and ban all Americans from the real thread.
Yes, I am including myself when I say all Americans. Smiley

Seconded. To use a very American saying, I'm willing to take one for the team.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #51 on: October 29, 2019, 04:34:56 pm »

There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.

Will this help Labour or Tories?

To the extent it helps either, presumably the Tories, because the ultra-Remainer typically Tory voters who voted Labour as a backlash against Victoria Borwick in 2017 will mostly vote for him, and Labour can't win Kensington without them. In extremis, maybe he could win the seat through the middle. I don't know enough about the Tory candidate to say; if she's a strong Leaver, Gyimah has a chance. She has apparently stumbled around totally unwinnable seats for the last couple of elections (South Down in 2015 and South Shields in 2017), so she may just be loyal footsoldier type.

This isn't really true. Remainer Tories in Kensington were never going to vote Labour, because nobody in their family has done that since 1832. We are talking about a very posh, very wealthy and implacably anti-Labour demographic.

The reason they lost in 2017 was that a) some of those Remainer Tories voted Lib Dem (as was the case in a fair swathe of well-off west London); b) more of those Remainer Tories didn't vote; c) there are fewer of those Remainer Tories than there used to be, because they're being outcompeted in the property market by oligarchs and have to move to Chiswick instead and d) turnout in the Labour-voting estates went up, as has been the pattern for a little while now.

The following article takes a pretty solid go at putting forward the case for Gyimah, but it's notable that it only really addresses the posher half of the seat. Unless we start seeing active evidence that he's making inroads in the more down-at-heel bits of North Kensington, I struggle to see his path to victory.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/10/sam-gyimah-standing-kensington-can-he-win

It's kind of crazy to deny that a bunch of (obviously not all) Remainer Tories voted Labour in Kensington in 2017. The factors you cite happened, too, but turnout was up overall, and swings like that against the national grain don't just happen because of organization. Tory Remainers voting Labour was the only reason it was competitive in the first place: Borwick, as an ardent Leave campaigner, was a dreadful fit for the constituency, and many Tory Remainers who had only ever voted Tory before abandoned her - some, yes, for the Lib Dems, but a larger share for Labour. Obviously many Tory Remainers stuck with the Tories anyway in 2017 (if they hadn't, Borwick would have gotten around 20% of the vote instead of over 40% of the vote), but Tory Remainers who voted for Borwick are probably mostly going to vote for another Tory this time around, too, especially one who is less strongly associated with the Leave campaign than Borwick was (although apparently the new candidate writes for "BrexitCentral.com", so maybe she's not much of a shift from Borwick ideologically).

I'd invite you to check the 2014 and 2018 local election results. In almost every ward, there's a notable lack of Lab-Con swing, with the only difference being slightly higher turnout in 2018 (primarily but not exclusive to Labour's benefit.) And that was after not just Brexit but the Grenfell Tower fire. We are talking about a remarkably inelastic electorate, on both sides of the divide.

Yes, of course there will be a few voters who switched directly from the Conservatives to Labour (and with a 20 vote majority, more or less any group can be crucial.) But they're a very small part of the picture and the sorts of voters who are most likely to switch don't live in Kensington in large numbers. Dent Coad won in 2017 because it's a seat where Labour can be competitive when we turn our vote out successfully and the Tories don't (had it existed in 1997 and 2001, we'd have won it then too). Direct switchers are very much a third-tier factor there.
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afleitch
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« Reply #52 on: October 29, 2019, 04:35:24 pm »

Speaking of Americans, Michael gets to vote in his first GE. His mind is already blown with it just being an 'x' in a box.
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jaichind
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« Reply #53 on: October 29, 2019, 04:37:29 pm »

I assume this election is still going with the 650 seat boundaries and not the proposed 600 seat boundaries.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
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« Reply #54 on: October 29, 2019, 04:40:07 pm »

Speaking of Americans, Michael gets to vote in his first GE. His mind is already blown with it just being an 'x' in a box.

Are you guys going to be voting early/absentee? How does that process work in the UK?
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afleitch
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« Reply #55 on: October 29, 2019, 04:46:51 pm »

Speaking of Americans, Michael gets to vote in his first GE. His mind is already blown with it just being an 'x' in a box.

Are you guys going to be voting early/absentee? How does that process work in the UK?

Yeah. We'll apply for postal votes sharpish. We'll get them once the 'notice of poll' with all the candidates has been published. Then vote and post.

I think a very sizable number will vote by post because there's a risk of adverse weather and there's only 7 hours daylight where I am at that time of year (which if overcast can end up being only 4 or 5 hours...)

Which is something pollsters will have to consider as in some seats we could be looking at close to 40% or 50% of votes being cast weeks before.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #56 on: October 29, 2019, 05:06:48 pm »

If you look at everything that has happened in the UK since 2010, this has been the most surreal decade in the UK since the war.

Why wouldn't it end with PM Jeremy Corbyn 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #57 on: October 29, 2019, 05:14:02 pm »

If you look at everything that has happened in the UK since 2010, this has been the most surreal decade in the UK since the war.

Why wouldn't it end with PM Jeremy Corbyn 

Because Jo Swinson getting the keys to number 10 would be more surreal, if that's the criteria Tongue
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #58 on: October 29, 2019, 05:49:19 pm »

Owen Smith (remember him?) is standing down in Pontypridd, as is Heidi Allen.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #59 on: October 29, 2019, 05:56:28 pm »



Huh Huh Huh
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #60 on: October 29, 2019, 05:59:00 pm »

He resigned from the whip to vote for the deal and the expectation was that this is what he'd do - he remained close with the Lib Dems and the deal was basically "let us know when you want to come back".
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #61 on: October 29, 2019, 06:04:57 pm »

He resigned from the whip to vote for the deal and the expectation was that this is what he'd do - he remained close with the Lib Dems and the deal was basically "let us know when you want to come back".

I mean the Lib-Dems these days are going to be winning seats based on them being the party with full ownership of the Hard Remain column. Breaking the party line on this most crucial issue, frequently, and then returning to said party even though your views are against their number one selling point is awkward.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #62 on: October 29, 2019, 06:14:14 pm »

I really hope Farage gets a seat this time. Hell be tempted to run in a Labour Leave constituency but thats not the right move. I think hes got conviction, believes in his cause and unlike his friend Trump - isnt a fraud

Dude Nigel Farage is one of the biggest frauds in UK politics.

The man made a small fortune in the City yet claims to be a Common Man who understands the Real British. He's married to a German woman but made his political fortunes around demonizing foreigners and anyone who wasn't just like him and his cronies in UKIP. Getting brexit delivered is second to ensuring his own political fortunes and the attention he gets

He's a shameless far-right hack, just like Trump. He's got no "conviction" aside from believing in himself
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #63 on: October 29, 2019, 06:19:33 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 06:24:13 pm by Oryxslayer »



I think this not paywalled poll tracker needed to be pinned to the thread, since it makes the geographic and demographic breakdowns (and their change) in each poll nice and visible, in addition to the fluctuation in the topline.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #64 on: October 29, 2019, 06:22:46 pm »

All I can say is thank God the will-they-won't-they hold an election storyline is finally over. The most tedious week in the history of British politics.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #65 on: October 29, 2019, 06:29:36 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 06:39:25 pm by 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 »

In Northern Ireland, the UUP claim that they don't want any pacts with the DUP (which in fairness were not the greatest deals in the world for the former) potentially damaging Nigel Dodds in N Belfast, Emma Little Pengelly in S. Belfast and reducing chances of picking up Fermanagh and South Tyrone (one would hope that the DUP being completely craven bastards would also imperil them, but this is nothing new).

Other questions will be whether Collum Eastwood stands in Foyle, Naomi Long stands in W Belfast and whether Lady Hermon stands again in N Down.
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Dereich
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« Reply #66 on: October 29, 2019, 06:29:49 pm »

So the union for Royal Mail has already voted for industrial action by 97% of voting members. The union general secretary is keeping open the threat of a postal strike during the election.


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Gary J
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« Reply #67 on: October 29, 2019, 06:44:12 pm »

I assume this election is still going with the 650 seat boundaries and not the proposed 600 seat boundaries.

The 650 seat boundaries are still in force and will be unchanged since the 2017 election.

Neither Theresa May nor Boris Johnson have demonstrated any interest in implementing the 600 seat boundary proposals. In formal terms all that was necessary was to produce a draft Order in Council and getting Parliament to vote for it. This would then lead to the reorganization of constituency party structures and a game of musical chairs amongst the MPs scrambling for a reduced number of candidacies.

It was suggested, when the boundary commission reports were issued, that Theresa May was not confident that she could get a majority for the revised boundaries. Parliament was told that it would take some time for the Order in Council to be drafted and somehow it has never since been produced.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #68 on: October 29, 2019, 06:44:47 pm »

Conservative Party restores whip to ten of the rebel MPs who were kicked out earlier.

Which MPs are those?
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #69 on: October 29, 2019, 06:54:51 pm »

Conservative Party restores whip to ten of the rebel MPs who were kicked out earlier.

Which MPs are those?

Ok I found the list, it appears in this article:

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/tories-restore-party-whip-to-10-mps-who-sought-to-block-no-deal-brexit
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #70 on: October 29, 2019, 06:56:57 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 07:00:07 pm by TheDeadFlagBlues »

Even if the LibDems collapse over the course of the campaign, the distribution of their vote could be much less uniform than is usually the case, confounding our expectations and resulting in an outcome that none of us anticipate. In the event that the LibDems actually receive over 20% of the vote, I'd expect that result to be very distinct from past elections where LibDems received a similar vote share. Thus, this election is kind of a "black box" for long-time followers of British politics - you can punch the vote shares for each party into a seat calculator and the seat count could be wildly off!

I don't want to overempashize this because the present government is extremely unpopular, granting the possibility that the LibDems could very well appeal to their traditional electorate, which is far from being uniformly "eurosceptic" anyways, but even the possibility of a strategically-distributed LibDem electorate emerging strikes me as being very consequential
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Krago
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« Reply #71 on: October 29, 2019, 06:58:05 pm »

Apparently Parliament will be dissolving on the 5th November.

And the election results will be reported the  morning of Friday 13th December.

God has certainly lost the plot for reality.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the House of Commons, just announced in the House that the dissolution will take place at 1 minute after midnight on 6th November.

Can The Queen stay up that late?
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #72 on: October 29, 2019, 07:08:51 pm »

In Northern Ireland, the UUP claim that they don't want any pacts with the DUP (which in fairness were not the greatest deals in the world for the former) potentially damaging Nigel Dodds in N Belfast, Emma Little Pengelly in S. Belfast and reducing chances of picking up Fermanagh and South Tyrone (one would hope that the DUP being completely craven bastards would also imperil them, but this is nothing new).

Other questions will be whether Collum Eastwood stands in Foyle, Naomi Long stands in W Belfast and whether Lady Hermon stands again in N Down.

FPP is always evil, of course, but it is particularly comically ill-suited for an area like Northern Ireland.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #73 on: October 29, 2019, 07:16:05 pm »

All I can say is thank God the will-they-won't-they hold an election storyline is finally over. The most tedious week in the history of British politics.


Well its not *finally* over until the election bill passes the Lords and becomes law......
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #74 on: October 29, 2019, 07:25:52 pm »

Even if the LibDems collapse over the course of the campaign, the distribution of their vote could be much less uniform than is usually the case, confounding our expectations and resulting in an outcome that none of us anticipate. In the event that the LibDems actually receive over 20% of the vote, I'd expect that result to be very distinct from past elections where LibDems received a similar vote share. Thus, this election is kind of a "black box" for long-time followers of British politics - you can punch the vote shares for each party into a seat calculator and the seat count could be wildly off!

I don't want to overempashize this because the present government is extremely unpopular, granting the possibility that the LibDems could very well appeal to their traditional electorate, which is far from being uniformly "eurosceptic" anyways, but even the possibility of a strategically-distributed LibDem electorate emerging strikes me as being very consequential

Yes, the proper take until the campaign seriously kick into high gear is that this election will be a black box. You mention the nature of the vote splits, but that is only one part of the equation. Looking at the tracker I posted, the tories are even with labour in the north, which mind you includes Labour strongholds like Manchester, Leeds, and Liverpool, while the Tories are only outpacing the opposition by 20 points in their usually (30ish pts) lock-step south. It's very possible that there are  far less damaging vote splits  between the LDs and Lab, because  they appeal as parties to two different sides of the electorate. Or the Tories will waltz down the middle. We don't know. The only thing that can be said for certain in my eyes is that many seats will be changing hands in many directions, and a good deal of those seats may be ones that come as a shock to prognosticators used to the old party strongholds.

For example, the first constituencies to usually announce, the Sunderlands, shouldn't be anything but safe labour under normal circumstances. But this election is a black box, and a community that returned some of the strongest results for Leave in 2016 and the Brexit Party in 2019 can't be ignored as potential targets depending on polling data. We don't know, the only thing the black box is willing to tell us is that near every seat could be competitive this cycle, and the calculators are worse then useless.  The only people who have any sort of grasp on the data right now are sitting in party war rooms right now, we just have to wait for things to kick into high gear.
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