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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 69954 times)
Pericles
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« Reply #75 on: October 29, 2019, 08:41:44 pm »

What would happen if the Tories fell around 10 seats short of a majority as they are now? So an effective majority is probably around 320 seats, and the Tories need at least 310 seats to be able to have the confidence of the House even if the DUP supports them. How would the UK move forward with Brexit if it's a bit of a status quo result, so like 315 Conservative MPs. In such a scenario Labour probably loses around 30 seats if not more.
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Dereich
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« Reply #76 on: October 29, 2019, 09:12:02 pm »

What would happen if the Tories fell around 10 seats short of a majority as they are now? So an effective majority is probably around 320 seats, and the Tories need at least 310 seats to be able to have the confidence of the House even if the DUP supports them. How would the UK move forward with Brexit if it's a bit of a status quo result, so like 315 Conservative MPs. In such a scenario Labour probably loses around 30 seats if not more.

The Tories probably can't count on the DUP anymore, not after selling them out to get a new Brexit deal.
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Pericles
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« Reply #77 on: October 29, 2019, 09:16:03 pm »

What would happen if the Tories fell around 10 seats short of a majority as they are now? So an effective majority is probably around 320 seats, and the Tories need at least 310 seats to be able to have the confidence of the House even if the DUP supports them. How would the UK move forward with Brexit if it's a bit of a status quo result, so like 315 Conservative MPs. In such a scenario Labour probably loses around 30 seats if not more.

The Tories probably can't count on the DUP anymore, not after selling them out to get a new Brexit deal.

Perhaps, but the DUP still loathes Corbyn, I doubt they back him. Though perhaps Corbyn could be forced to resign and the minor parties prop up a non-Corbyn Labour government and pass a second referendum before having another election, but there might not be the numbers for a second referendum in such a parliament either.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #78 on: October 29, 2019, 09:20:20 pm »

What would happen if the Tories fell around 10 seats short of a majority as they are now? So an effective majority is probably around 320 seats, and the Tories need at least 310 seats to be able to have the confidence of the House even if the DUP supports them. How would the UK move forward with Brexit if it's a bit of a status quo result, so like 315 Conservative MPs. In such a scenario Labour probably loses around 30 seats if not more.

They would have largely purged the Remainer rebels, so a similar result to 2017 is still probably a success for Johnson.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #79 on: October 29, 2019, 09:22:33 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 09:29:51 pm by Oryxslayer »

What would happen if the Tories fell around 10 seats short of a majority as they are now? So an effective majority is probably around 320 seats, and the Tories need at least 310 seats to be able to have the confidence of the House even if the DUP supports them. How would the UK move forward with Brexit if it's a bit of a status quo result, so like 315 Conservative MPs. In such a scenario Labour probably loses around 30 seats if not more.

The only thing with any guarantee of occurring in such a scenario would be more gridlock. The opposition could form a govt, but realistically it would be just like the present opposition - glued together solely by opposition to Tories. According to news pieces, nobody wants the status quo to return to Westminster.

The other likely thing that can't be ignored is that no matter what happens after this election, the Tories are going to be far more  in tune with Brexit. Boris's purges, various retirements and new  nominations, and their expectation to gain Brexit-voting seats  and lose remain voting ones all point to a Conservative party more united around the PM and Brexit as an issue. No more  backbench revolts and '5th columnists' for them.  
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #80 on: October 29, 2019, 10:14:58 pm »

I’m sorry to bring it up again, but it seems to have been lost in the shuffle.

Assuming the Conservatives hit ~295, Labour hits well below that, but SNP and the Lib Dems could get them to a majority, will either Corbyn or Johnson ever give in to Swinson’s demands on the EU in Johnson’s case and Corbyn as PM in Labour’s case?
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AndyHogan14
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« Reply #81 on: October 29, 2019, 11:52:37 pm »

While we do not get many polls outside of Northern Ireland very often, the most recent polling that I can find has the Alliance Party making gains while the other parties are remaining stagnant. That may put Belfast East and Belfast North in play. Also, while I wouldn't bet on it, can the UUP or SDLP steal a constituency away from the DUP or SF respectively? An SDLP MP would raise the threshold for a majority while a UUP MP would be a bit of a wildcard on how they would vote when it comes to Brexit.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #82 on: October 30, 2019, 01:33:32 am »

Is there any discussion about electoral pacts, stand down agreements etc?
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cp
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« Reply #83 on: October 30, 2019, 01:49:39 am »

Is there any discussion about electoral pacts, stand down agreements etc?

The Lib Dems are allegedly in talks with Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and Greens about selected stand downs in a handful of seats. The Tories have categorically ruled out any cooperation with the Brexit Party. I don't think the Brexit Party has responded in kind, but the inexorable logic of the situation is that they will attempt to stand a full slate of candidates.
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Gary J
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« Reply #84 on: October 30, 2019, 02:52:08 am »
« Edited: October 30, 2019, 02:55:26 am by Gary J »

Is there any discussion about electoral pacts, stand down agreements etc?

The Lib Dems are allegedly in talks with Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and Greens about selected stand downs in a handful of seats. The Tories have categorically ruled out any cooperation with the Brexit Party. I don't think the Brexit Party has responded in kind, but the inexorable logic of the situation is that they will attempt to stand a full slate of candidates.

It is extremely unlikely that Labour and pretty unlikely that the Conservatives will not have a candidate in every seat in Great Britain, except possibly the constituency of a new Speaker if one gets elected on Monday.

The Liberal Democrats may be prepared to stand down in a limited number of cases. For example in 2017 they did not contest Brighton Pavilion, held by Caroline Lucas of the Green Party (although I see from the Wikipedia article that there is a Lib Dem prospective parliamentary candidate for the seat now). It may be more a case of a "gentleman's agreement" not to run a strong campaign in non target seats, where the campaign will largely consist of the one free postal delivery leaflet (postal strikes permitting). I know that in recent general election campaigns attempts have been made to persuade activists in non target seats to devote their major efforts to nearby target seats, as an attempt to replicate by-election levels of activity in a limited number of constituencies. I am not sure what level of resources are going to be available to the Lib Dems in this election.

I would be surprised if the SNP would be willing not to contest any seats in Scotland. I suspect they would quite like to win every seat in Scotland, which would not be entirely impossible except perhaps for Orkney and Shetland.

I do not think any widespread electoral pacts are likely. There are four major or major minor GB wide parties, none of which particularly like or trust the others, plus the SNP which has a similar status in Scotland. The position is more like the recent Canadian federal elections where just about every riding had a candidate from just about all the competing parties.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #85 on: October 30, 2019, 03:33:17 am »

Is there any discussion about electoral pacts, stand down agreements etc?

The Lib Dems are allegedly in talks with Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and Greens about selected stand downs in a handful of seats. The Tories have categorically ruled out any cooperation with the Brexit Party. I don't think the Brexit Party has responded in kind, but the inexorable logic of the situation is that they will attempt to stand a full slate of candidates.

Brilliant. Now the massive SNP and Plaid Cymru vote in London can be united behind the LibDems.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #86 on: October 30, 2019, 04:32:13 am »

Ironically, Farage and the Brexit Party doing well are the remainers' best hope in this election.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #87 on: October 30, 2019, 04:52:20 am »

In Northern Ireland, the UUP claim that they don't want any pacts with the DUP (which in fairness were not the greatest deals in the world for the former) potentially damaging Nigel Dodds in N Belfast, Emma Little Pengelly in S. Belfast and reducing chances of picking up Fermanagh and South Tyrone (one would hope that the DUP being completely craven bastards would also imperil them, but this is nothing new).

Other questions will be whether Collum Eastwood stands in Foyle, Naomi Long stands in W Belfast and whether Lady Hermon stands again in N Down.

I presume this is a typo for East Belfast - hard to see anything making West Belfast even vaguely interesting.

Interestingly for South Belfast, the SDLP candidate abandoned the party whip over their link-up with FF, whilst the Alliance candidate was formerly the UUP/Conservative candidate in 2010.
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Serenity Now
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« Reply #88 on: October 30, 2019, 07:52:01 am »

Something important to be aware of: once the campaign period begins, strict rules about broadcast media coverage for political parties are imposed. Note that most people get their news from the broadcast media and pay much more attention to the political items during an election campaign than the rest of the time. So this matters a lot.

Anyway, broadcast media coverage over the past few months has recently focused very, very heavily on the government and on the Conservative Party. Once the campaign rules kick in, just about everyone (Labour, the LibDems, the Brexit Party...) will get more airtime. This will have an effect. Exactly how much always varies, but it matters.

Or to put things more bluntly: it will not be possible for the government to run a 'people vs. parliament' (absurd concept, whatever) campaign, because the broadcast regulations will not allow for the coverage shares that might allow it.

Listening to the news breaks on popular radio stations (whether BBC or commercial) gives a useful impression of what information is reaching most voters.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #89 on: October 30, 2019, 08:06:32 am »

Ironically, Farage and the Brexit Party doing well are the remainers' best hope in this election.

Just as the LibDems and Greens taking lots of previous Labour votes is the best hope for Brexiteers.

That's how it works.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #90 on: October 30, 2019, 08:15:16 am »

Of course a lot of those voters in 2017 were not normal voters for either party: that was a very strange election in that all the smaller parties basically collapsed at the start of the campaign (the LibDem vote share only held up at all because the outward flow of solidly pro-EU voters from the Conservatives was so strong). A lot of the odder voting patterns that resulted have not shown up in subsequent rounds of local elections, with a couple of exceptions: General Elections are not applied local elections, but this is interesting. All of this is a major complicating factor for anyone trying to make predictions or projections.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #91 on: October 30, 2019, 09:22:49 am »



Further proof that UKIP are a zombie party. Similarly, the Sinners had November leadership challenge that now would coincide with the campaign period, so it may get shelved.  
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #92 on: October 30, 2019, 09:38:54 am »

Whoever made the decision to approve the election on Labour is absolutely crazy.

I mean this could approach 97’ or ‘01 in reverse.

Which would make 2024 a tall task, albeit more likely with Corbin gone.
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sopojarwo
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« Reply #93 on: October 30, 2019, 09:55:01 am »

The rise of the ex-Revolutionary Communist Party member influence over Tory is one of the weirdest and least talked about aspects of recent events. Their election manifesto is being drawn up by a communist. Ironic when they accuse Corbyn of being an IRA sympathiser
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #94 on: October 30, 2019, 10:07:46 am »

Labour had no choice but to go along with an election soon once Swinson in particular decided to support it for their own short-termist and narrow party political considerations.

But maybe some in the party think they can defy the odds again? Crazy thought, I know.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #95 on: October 30, 2019, 10:34:07 am »
« Edited: October 30, 2019, 11:07:34 am by Walmart_shopper »

Labour had no choice but to go along with an election soon once Swinson in particular decided to support it for their own short-termist and narrow party political considerations.

But maybe some in the party think they can defy the odds again? Crazy thought, I know.

It would be actually crazy if the Tories weren't led by a carnival-barking ideological jellyfish who has chosen to stand with the most grotesque and unpopular wing of his party in an attempt to ram through a Brexit policy that a consistent majority of Britons really don't like.

I suppose Jezza thinks that a cogent and credible case against a Brexiteer government can be made and can beat the Tories. Of course he's right, but the question is whether this case will be made. Obviously it would be easier to have, say, Keir Starmer doing this rather than Corbyn's weird British Guevarrista-in-tweed cosplay. But at the end of the day it's easier to oppose than defend a sitting government, which is why Labour's silliness about Brexit probably matters less than people realize.
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Ishan
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« Reply #96 on: October 30, 2019, 11:00:27 am »


Further proof that UKIP are a zombie party. Similarly, the Sinners had November leadership challenge that now would coincide with the campaign period, so it may get shelved.  
I wonder when UKIP will dissolve.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #97 on: October 30, 2019, 12:16:08 pm »


It would be actually crazy if the Tories weren't led by a carnival-barking ideological jellyfish who has chosen to stand with the most grotesque and unpopular wing of his party in an attempt to ram through a Brexit policy that a consistent majority of Britons really don't like.

The most recent polling on Boris Deal vs Remain that I could find.


Granted, it will be further scrutinized during the election but anything remotely close to that is enough for him. Added that he is polling a quite consistent ~15-20% of the 2016 Remain vote as well.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #98 on: October 30, 2019, 01:02:52 pm »

If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.


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brucejoel99
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« Reply #99 on: October 30, 2019, 01:22:47 pm »

If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.
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