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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 78967 times)
Old School Republican
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« Reply #100 on: October 30, 2019, 01:27:35 pm »

If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #101 on: October 30, 2019, 01:30:16 pm »

If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

In no way whatsoever is any of what you just said a logical response to what I said.
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jaichind
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« Reply #102 on: October 30, 2019, 01:35:20 pm »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/76e74c38-fb22-11e9-98fd-4d6c20050229

Brexit party considers pulling out of hundreds of seats to boost Tories

Not sure this helps CON that much.  Lots of BXP voter are people that will never vote CON regardless of Brexit stance.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #103 on: October 30, 2019, 01:37:19 pm »

If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

In no way whatsoever is any of what you just said a logical response to what I said.


What I am saying is Remainers did everything in their power to make sure the people's will was not followed so if they succeed in forcing an winning a second referendum , the Brexiters will be 100% justified in doing the same to force a third referendum.


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brucejoel99
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« Reply #104 on: October 30, 2019, 01:41:48 pm »

If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

In no way whatsoever is any of what you just said a logical response to what I said.


What I am saying is Remainers did everything in their power to make sure the people's will was not followed so if they succeed in forcing an winning a second referendum , the Brexiters will be 100% justified in doing the same to force a third referendum.

If this was the case, then a majority of the nearly 500 MP's who voted to trigger Article 50 wouldn't have done so.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #105 on: October 30, 2019, 01:43:11 pm »

If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

In no way whatsoever is any of what you just said a logical response to what I said.


What I am saying is Remainers did everything in their power to make sure the people's will was not followed so if they succeed in forcing an winning a second referendum , the Brexiters will be 100% justified in doing the same to force a third referendum.

If this was the case, then a majority of the nearly 500 MP's who voted to trigger Article 50 wouldn't have done so.


They should have not obstructed May's deal, and obstructed her ability to make any good deal.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #106 on: October 30, 2019, 01:46:47 pm »

If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

In no way whatsoever is any of what you just said a logical response to what I said.


What I am saying is Remainers did everything in their power to make sure the people's will was not followed so if they succeed in forcing an winning a second referendum , the Brexiters will be 100% justified in doing the same to force a third referendum.

If this was the case, then a majority of the nearly 500 MP's who voted to trigger Article 50 wouldn't have done so.


They should have not obstructed May's deal, and obstructed her ability to make any good deal.

You do realize that it was literally BoJo & the arch-Brexiteers who did exactly that, right?
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jaichind
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« Reply #107 on: October 30, 2019, 02:15:21 pm »

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.6b9db4dc-d1df-4c9d-b9ab-c9a136a91f1e/uk-general-election-seats-markets

Sportingindex market medium

CON     324
LAB      206
SNP       49.5
LDEM     47.5
BXP         3.5

Which with SF not taking their seats gives CON a bare de facto majority
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #108 on: October 30, 2019, 03:24:14 pm »

Nicky Morgan is retiring and will not stand in December. First off, her seat should still keep to it's history even in a Brexit focused election, voting near 50-50 between remain and leave. It's a rather unique seat in that regard since it's located in the Brexit-loving East/Northeast. However, fear of loss probably wasn't the motivator - she's a remainer, backed Gove for leadership, and was opposed to Boris's brexit maneuvers. People like her are no longer a natural fit for the Conservative party.
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Krago
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« Reply #109 on: October 30, 2019, 03:52:25 pm »

For those who want precise Westminster constituency boundaries, this is for you:

https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/


Also, a friend and I would like to travel to Britain for the last week of the campaign, and we have a couple of questions:

(a) How often do party leaders hold big rallies?  Is it easy to attend them?
(b) If we wanted to attend an election announcement early in the morning, how easy are those to go to?  Perhaps, Uxbridge and South Ruislip?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #110 on: October 30, 2019, 03:54:52 pm »

(b) Election counts are nearly always in large sports centres. I don't think any of the locations have been announced for where they will be, but your best bet is to ask the relevant local council for more information.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #111 on: October 30, 2019, 06:28:36 pm »

For those who want precise Westminster constituency boundaries, this is for you:

https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/


Also, a friend and I would like to travel to Britain for the last week of the campaign, and we have a couple of questions:

(a) How often do party leaders hold big rallies?  Is it easy to attend them?
(b) If we wanted to attend an election announcement early in the morning, how easy are those to go to?  Perhaps, Uxbridge and South Ruislip?

A.) Rare; Tories will be members only and Labour will be hard to track down; unless youíre happy tl go wherever the rally is in the UK.

B.) you need a pass to get into the actual counts iirc- esp for a PM one.
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morgieb
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« Reply #112 on: October 30, 2019, 06:29:38 pm »

Nicky Morgan is retiring and will not stand in December. First off, her seat should still keep to it's history even in a Brexit focused election, voting near 50-50 between remain and leave. It's a rather unique seat in that regard since it's located in the Brexit-loving East/Northeast. However, fear of loss probably wasn't the motivator - she's a remainer, backed Gove for leadership, and was opposed to Boris's brexit maneuvers. People like her are no longer a natural fit for the Conservative party.
Worth remembering that Labour held that seat from 1955-1979 and 1997-2010. It's not a safe Tory seat.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #113 on: October 30, 2019, 06:36:09 pm »

Morgan had a majority of 4,269 votes (7.9% in 2017), in 2017 she suffered a 5.3% swing against her. While she did well in 2015, she also had a relatively close majority (3,744 votes, 7.1%) in 2010. This seat seems like it could flip, though tbf it probably doesn't.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #114 on: October 30, 2019, 06:42:21 pm »

I really hope Farage gets a seat this time. Heíll be tempted to run in a Labour Leave constituency but thatís not the right move. I think heís got conviction, believes in his cause and unlike his friend Trump - isnít a fraud

Well this didnít age well.

If the reports are true that heís even considering only running a handful of candidates in Labour Leave areas and that he himself may not even stand - Thatís just pathetic. After all that to just fade away and give up on his cause? Embarrassing
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #115 on: October 30, 2019, 06:43:48 pm »

Nicky Morgan is retiring and will not stand in December. First off, her seat should still keep to it's history even in a Brexit focused election, voting near 50-50 between remain and leave. It's a rather unique seat in that regard since it's located in the Brexit-loving East/Northeast. However, fear of loss probably wasn't the motivator - she's a remainer, backed Gove for leadership, and was opposed to Boris's brexit maneuvers. People like her are no longer a natural fit for the Conservative party.
Worth remembering that Labour held that seat from 1955-1979 and 1997-2010. It's not a safe Tory seat.

Loughborough has voted for the winning party nationally at every election since February 1974. We'll see if it keeps that streak.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #116 on: October 30, 2019, 06:48:35 pm »

Nicky Morgan is retiring and will not stand in December. First off, her seat should still keep to it's history even in a Brexit focused election, voting near 50-50 between remain and leave. It's a rather unique seat in that regard since it's located in the Brexit-loving East/Northeast. However, fear of loss probably wasn't the motivator - she's a remainer, backed Gove for leadership, and was opposed to Boris's brexit maneuvers. People like her are no longer a natural fit for the Conservative party.
Worth remembering that Labour held that seat from 1955-1979 and 1997-2010. It's not a safe Tory seat.

Loughborough has voted for the winning party nationally at every election since February 1974. We'll see if it keeps that streak.

Thats what I meant by History. If we get a old fashioned election,a brexit election, or something in between, Loughborough still will likely be a marginal.
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cp
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« Reply #117 on: October 31, 2019, 04:57:01 am »
« Edited: October 31, 2019, 07:59:28 am by cp »

I really hope Farage gets a seat this time. Heíll be tempted to run in a Labour Leave constituency but thatís not the right move. I think heís got conviction, believes in his cause and unlike his friend Trump - isnít a fraud

Well this didnít age well.

If the reports are true that heís even considering only running a handful of candidates in Labour Leave areas and that he himself may not even stand - Thatís just pathetic. After all that to just fade away and give up on his cause? Embarrassing

If true, it's also tactically inept. Labour Leave seats are precisely the places where the Tories *don't* want the BXP to run. With BXP on the ballot (in, say, Hartlepool) they'll just repeat the results of 2015 (where Lab won that seat with a 35/30/20 split). For all the hype about Labour being wracked by division over Brexit, virtually every poll, interview, and study of Labour Leave areas has shown Labour Leavers are far more Labour - and hostile to the Tories - than they are Leavers, and the committed Leavers in Labour Leave seats are not typically Labour voters.

If it wasn't apparent already, it's worth adding there aren't really that many seats where the BXP will do more damage to the Tories than Labour in the first place. If the BXP really wanted to help the Tories they would simply fold, but I think Farage has a bit too much ego to contemplate that.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #118 on: October 31, 2019, 06:48:10 am »

Not to mention that if the BxP only run a token number of candidates they will lose their right to PPBs and to participate in any debates that might be set up during the campaign.

Either run in most seats or not at all seem to be the only two credible options for them.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #119 on: October 31, 2019, 07:47:20 am »

If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

You know that Labour has maintained the position that they will follow the referendum result (albeit with a final deal put to the people) while Lib Dems have been full-on anti-Brexit, right?
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Serenity Now
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« Reply #120 on: October 31, 2019, 08:21:02 am »

Some of you will already be aware of the notoriously misleading bar charts which have sometimes been produced by the Lib Dems, but this really takes the cake (just read the small print).

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #121 on: October 31, 2019, 08:25:02 am »

Some of you will already be aware of the notoriously misleading bar charts which have sometimes been produced by the Lib Dems, but this really takes the cake (just read the small print).



The only way JRM loses his seat is if the 600 reappointment goes into effect (it merges the two bath seats), or a different reappointment carves the city in two and has bath north/south rather than inner/outer. There are a good number of LDs in JRMs seat, but they will always be outgunned by the Tories without reinforcements from the city.
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tomm_86
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« Reply #122 on: October 31, 2019, 08:29:13 am »

Some of you will already be aware of the notoriously misleading bar charts which have sometimes been produced by the Lib Dems, but this really takes the cake (just read the small print).



For the benefit of those who understandably can't read the tiny text:

Quote
Survation polled 405 respondents aged 18+ living in NE Somerset with the question: ďImagine that the result in your constituency was expected to be very close between the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidate, and none of the other parties were competitive. In this scenario, which party would you vote for?Ē

And the 2017 result, for reference:

Con 53.6%
Lab 34.7%
Lib Dem 8.3%
Grn 2.3%
Ind 1.1%
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #123 on: October 31, 2019, 08:42:53 am »

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2
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afleitch
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« Reply #124 on: October 31, 2019, 10:14:01 am »

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

UKIP were averaging about the same as Brexit is now going into 2017. Greens too. What is curious is that the Tories ended about the same at the end as at the start and Labour cannibalised everyone including a chunk of UKIP voters.

Labour with its worst result since 1933, Tories doing better than 1987. Boris gets a thumping majority? It feels wrong. It doesn't sit right.
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